The Federal Reserve is on the cusp of further rate cuts



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The US Federal Reserve is expected to follow the European Central Bank and cut rates by about a quarter point next week. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell made it clear that he did not think a recession in the United States was likely, but he acknowledged that economic hurdles were intensifying.

"There are all these risks, and we are watching them very closely and we are pursuing a policy that will address them," he said earlier this month.

"Consumer-centric and domestically-oriented sectors of the economy are holding up, but with inflation that does not seem to be threatening, the Federal Reserve has the opportunity to offer support to the economy. ", wrote analysts at ING, a Dutch bank.

The Trump Factor: US President Donald Trump uses his Twitter feed to keep the pressure on the central bank. "The Federal Reserve should reduce our interest rates to zero or less, and we should start refinancing our debt," he tweeted last week.

China drops tariffs on some US products for the first time since the start of the trade war

For fear that Trump's head of the Fed will receive the message, the president took advantage of the ECB's decision last week to push interest rates further into negative territory in order to convince him of return.

"They are trying and succeeding in depreciating the euro against the very strong dollar, which is hurting US exports … And the Fed sits, sits and sits. are paid to borrow money, while we pay interest! he tweeted.

To you, Mr. Powell.

US stocks waiting?

An action by the Fed could lead the S & P 500 and Dow to unprecedented new heights. Last week was stellar for stocks, with concessions from the United States and China raising the hope that trade talks could lead to a breakthrough if they resumed as planned next month.

China agreed last week to exempt tariffs shrimp, anticancer drugs, pesticides and more than a dozen other products. US President Donald Trump responded by postponing a scheduled tariff increase from Oct. 1 to Oct. 15, as part of what he called "a gesture of goodwill." Then on Friday, Beijing paved the way for new purchases of US soy and pork.

The Dow added 1.6% last week for its third consecutive weekly gain. The S & P 500 rose nearly 1% and the Nasdaq 0.5% last week, which is consistent with the Dow's winning streak.

Next big test of Apple

The iPhone 11 and its more expensive Pro brothers are on sale Friday in a handful of countries.

Apple (AAPL) IPhone sales have fallen in three of the past four quarters, and given the prolonged slowdown in the Chinese economy, it is unlikely that a turnaround will occur in the near future.

That's why Apple is banking on its Apple TV + and Arcade subscription services at $ 5 a month to boost its revenue.

However, investors will remain attentive to information on the performance of sales of Apple's iPhone 11 during its opening weekend. The $ 699 lower than expected price could give a boost to these sales.

Saudi oil capacity

Oil traders are on the alert after coordinated strikes have eliminated 5.7 million barrels a day from crude oil and gas production from Saudi Arabia, about half of the country's total output.

Two Saudi Aramco sites, including the world's largest oil processing facility, have been affected. Aramco, a state-owned company, "hopes this capacity will be restored in a few days," CNN Business told a source. The outage will affect 5% of the world's daily oil production.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo blamed the strikes directly on Iran. Tehran rejected the request.

"Oil prices will jump on this attack," said Jason Bordoff, founding director of Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy. "The risk of uncontrollable regional escalation that drives up oil prices has further increased."

The International Energy Agency said it is in contact with the Saudi authorities. "For the moment, markets are well supplied with sufficient commercial stocks," he said.

next

Monday: China retail sales, industrial production

Tuesday: US industrial production for August; FedEx (FDX) earnings
Wednesday: Fed rate decision; General Mills (GIS) and income of Lloyd & s 39; s of London

Thursday: decisions on BOE and BOJ rates; Existing home sales in the United States

Friday: Apple's iPhone 11 is on sale in some countries

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