For those who follow my work for a while, you probably know that the market, which was below the 2880 SPX mark in the fall, allowed me to raise money because it suggested that a correction of 20 at 30% would probably start. And, in December, when we were asking the market to drop precipitously from the 2800SPX region, I provided a negative downside target in the 2250-2335SPX region, where I thought we could witness a rollback to at least the region 2800SPX.
In fact, even before we reached the floor in December, I was discussing with my members the potential that we could even reach an all-time record in the rally compared to the expected region, with a target potential as high as the 3011-40SPX . region before returning to the 2200SPX area.
So, during the fall, I put my money in the service of trading because we were able to identify many trading opportunities, which brought one of our members to Market Pinball Wizard to comment at that time:
I must say that the fact that you call every turn of the market is absolutely unhealthy. This is just not normal. . . Suffice it to say that the annual subscription is only a small part of the swing trading profits I made.
It was really a merchant environment, and we really could take advantage of it. And, once we approached our downside target in the 2250-2335 region, I was expecting a recovery from rising to the 2470-2520SPX region. While I initially expected that a recovery in this region could always send us back to the lower target at the lower target, when the market was removed from this region so corrective, I started looking higher than expected in the region between 2600 and 2680. Region 2445SPX.
From there, I expected the market to provide us with a corrective removal before reaching my ultimate goal of at least 2800SPX. But the downturn was terribly weak and the market continued to grow without providing any significant downturn at the time.
So, as the market rallied until February, I set myself an "ideal" target zone of 2865-2885SPX for the rebound of the December 2018 lows. And, the market is now there.
However, the structure with which we have rallied to this goal has once again opened the door to the potential I thought of in the fall of 2018 – that we can still approach the 3011-40SPX region in the recovery from the troughs. of December. In simple terms, 2830 / 45SPX is now supported. If we can go below 2830SPX without exceeding 2910, we can begin to confirm a higher degree by next week.
Although I will give more details to my members for the moment, I will point out that if, on the contrary, we witness a stronger acceleration over the next few days, the market will be fully exploited, and we will make further progress. Potential 3011-40SPX that I was thinking about several months ago. And as amazing as it may seem, such a high rally can still take us back to the 2200SPX region, and I will not bore you with the technical details of the reason.
So in the current state of things, I've seen a lot of it distort my positioning over the last six months for whatever reason. So, to make it clear enough, the market is back now, I raised a significant amount of money before the 20-30% correction I was asking for breaks down. Since that time, I have been able to use this money wonderfully to reduce the market to the lows in December and make some long trades on the market before reaching the 2800SPX + region that I was expecting. In addition, we also used this money to make an excellent transaction on the TLT, we also went just below 113 in the fall.
So, while we are sitting here in the area where I originally raised money, I will probably have a decision to make in the next few days to find out if I will put my money (which has now increased significantly to 6 months ) back to work on the long run for a rally at 3011-40SPX, or if I will wait for my time and seek a short trade with greater concentration on a better buying opportunity at much lower levels for the rally I am waiting for us eventually bring to 3500-4000 over the next 3-4 years. It is the market shares we will see in this region over the next few days that will provide clues for the coming month.
You see, markets are not linear environments. To understand the functioning of markets, one must accept to deal with probabilities in a non-linear environment. We must therefore use a nonlinear analysis method that places these probabilities on our side of the table. This method allows us to recognize the potential for larger movements before they occur, which means we do not need to get stuck in a buy-and-hold strategy forever. I mean, we do not need a lot of "tips" to just buy and keep forever. However, if your goal is to improve prices, it is clear that a long term buying strategy does not suit you.
Over the next few days, the market will provide us with powerful clues as to where the next move will take more than 100 points. We will listen to you very carefully, as I also suggest, based on the settings I mentioned above.
But, overall, nothing has really changed in my perspective. I still see ourselves in the 7th long period of growth of a long term bull market, which will probably lead us to the region of 3500-4000SPX by 2022/23. And, ideally, I'm still looking for better buying opportunities later this year for this final rally, and I've been able to increase my initial cash balance over the last 6 months with all the wonderful opportunities the market has offered us. during this period. time. Now we have to find the right time to reuse it, because we are in exactly the same place where I originally had cash, especially since the market is at an inflection point when Write this update.
Note: I'm sorry, but I have to leave my proprietary annotated cards to my service members.
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Disclosure: I / we have / we have no position in the actions mentioned, and we do not intend to initiate a position within the next 72 hours. I have written this article myself and it expresses my own opinions. I do not get compensation for that. I do not have any business relationship with a company whose actions are mentioned in this article.