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ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball debut in 2019 will be a hot match for fans of Mets. Atlanta, defending champion of the NL East, will visit Philadelphia, the projected winner of the NL East, at 19h.
Bryce Harper's high-profile signing with the Phillies in the off-season has created a mini-storm in betting circles. Philadelphia became the second favorite to win the National League at 11/2, behind the Dodgers. The Phils also entered the 11/1 season to win the championship.
Atlanta was largely ignored by mainstream media during the off-season, although it reached the playoffs with a 90-win campaign in 2018. You would have thought the Braves were about to retreat to the bottom of the division as members of the tank brigade.
The betting markets still respect the Braves as a potential competitor. The Braves entered the 10/1 season to win the National League, and 20/1 to win the World Series.
The closing of the "Totals of Regular Season Victories" suggested a close race in the east of the NL. Philadelphia was slightly ahead of Washington in the past, both between 88 and 89, depending on the Paris store. Atlanta was just behind nearly 86 wins, the Mets nearly 85. The Marlins have come a long way, with an estimated 63 wins.
The problem is that the market may be explaining too much improvement …
Ranking 2018 NL East
Team record
Atlanta: 90-72
Washington: 82-80
Philadelphia: 80-82
Mets: 77-85
Miami: 63-98
So … the Marlins will stay the same … the Braves are going to get worse … but the Phillies, the Nationals and the Mets will all win 7-10 other games? While you play very competitive calendars?
It is possible that the NL-East offers an exciting race to four teams up to the wire, but there are more chances that there is at least a good surprise (a team achieving 95 to 100 wins ) and at least a bad surprise (a team sinking below the .500 mark). Handicapers and bettors should monitor performance early in the season to identify indicators that may suggest such surprises.
As a bettor, you do not make money by asking what "should" happen. Markets reflect expectations. The sharps earn their living by developing a better reading of reality before the book takers and the masses.
NL East analysts had the chance to see face-to-face battles with the Mets-Nats and Braves-Phillies this weekend. More to come who will help the evaluation efforts …
- Phillies-Nats: Tuesday, Wednesday
- Nats-Mets: Thursday, Saturday, Sunday
- Nats-Phillies: April 8-10
- Mets-Braves: April 11 to 14
- Mets-Phillies: April 15-17
- Phillies-Mets: April 22-24
VSiN will talk more about baseball in the coming weeks, including a discussion on disability issues on Monday as the use of novice pitchers evolves. In the middle of the final four analysis of college basketball and the NBA and NHL playoff chases, we'll catch up with the Yankees early next week as part of a playoff preview against the Astros .
It's a good time of the year to be a sports bettor.
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