The first democrats are waiting for the decisive blow

Joe Biden continues to maintain a fragile lead in the polls. Elizabeth Warren, his ascending adversary, does not confront him with force. Warren and Bernie Sanders, the progressive behemoths of the race, do not separate.

At the heart of the 2020 primary campaign – after Labor Day and after three rounds of debates and fundraising sessions – prudence, patience and stasis became the hallmarks of the Democrats' contest.

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Even though three candidates have moved away from the rest of the world, the first Democrats said It's remarkable that none of them really took over the elementary school. They do not see bold strategic attacks designed to distinguish their campaigns or sustained attempts to strike a decisive blow against rivals. And they do not see an obvious leader with only 140 days before the Iowa caucuses.

"It's really strange," said Sean Bagniewski, president of Polk County Democrats in Iowa. "It's strange that we're so far away, we've launched it, it's been two years that we have so much interest and there is no favorite yet."

Some rely on Sanders and Warren to highlight their differences. Other Democrats were expecting a collision between Biden and Warren in last week's debate – a confrontation that never materialized. Instead, a lower-ranking candidate, former representative Beto O'Rourke, seemed to wake up. At the end of the week, Biden's campaign mingled with Julián Castro, who interviewed about 1% of respondents, about Castro's opportunity to question Biden's memory.

As one Iowa Democratic leader said about the field: "We have an exceptionally talented group of people, an exceptionally talented group of vice presidents, cabinet members and DNC presidents. But there is no president yet. "

One of the reasons for the lack of clarity is that in most cases high-level candidates scrupulously respected their initial battle plans, feeling little incentive to improvise or change direction. Warren's approach has been slow and steady, always confident in the eventual benefit of his expansive field organization and his detailed political agenda. Biden's campaign showed little sign of panic over the blunders and other missteps of the candidates.

But the lack of volatility in the campaign also reflects a warning inspired by the experience: the Kamala Harris campaign gained momentum in June after criticizing Biden for his past opposition to buses and associations with segregationists. But she quickly fell back. Castro, the former secretary of HUD, did not take advantage of opinion polls of O'Rourke's reproaches or, more recently, Biden's. In fact, none of the candidates who nominated their rivals for strong criticism – the mayor of New York City, Bill de Blasio and representative Tulsi Gabbard, among them – found positive spinoffs for their attacks.

A set of key issues still evolving also determines the measured approaches of each campaign. Last week, O'Rourke – who had failed to gain ground in the campaign for months – recently drew attention to his call for a mandatory assault weapons program. Candidate's divergent views on health care, a critical issue in the campaign, are only beginning to be more clearly defined.

Sanders and Warren, along with Biden on the Texas stage, quarreled over the differences in their plans. Biden noted that Warren had once said "I'm with Bernie" on Medicare for All, and then pointed out that he was supportive of keeping the law on affordable care while adding a public option. "I'm for Barack," he said before asking Warren if she would raise middle-class taxes to fund the plan.

"I clearly think that for the first time, Bernie and Warren had to defend Medicare for all in a way that they did not have to do it. Biden had help to make this case of [Sen. Amy] Klobuchar and Mayor Pete [Buttigieg]Said Joe Trippi, a veteran of the Democratic campaign. "This is the big problem that defines us. They will have it and it will not happen overnight. It was the beginning of it. It was the first shots, the first volley – real stolen – I think you're starting to get to the heart of the problem. "

Trippi said that the vast majority of Democratic voters are still not listening to primaries or even following debates. Those who are listening tend to have firmer points of view behind a certain candidate.

"Anyone who thinks this situation is defined simply does not understand a multi-candidate field like this," Trippi said. "The only people who pay attention are people who are really interested, who already love Joe Biden and think he is the best, or who already love Elizabeth Warren. They all make sure to encourage their candidates. So, when you attack someone else, you will not do anything against him. That's why, when Castro attacks Joe, everyone vomits. Harris made the same mistake in the first debate.

Comparing the primary to a marathon, Tom Perez, chairman of the Democratic National Committee, said: "We are in the eighth mile."

With many Democrats, like Perez, convinced that he is still too early in the campaign, the opinion is that there is still a lot of fluidity on the ground.

"On the one hand, it's clear that 60% of the voters are among the top three candidates, which is very stable," said Rose Kapolczynski, a Democratic strider unaffiliated with the race. "On the other hand, Biden and Sanders do not leave the park every day and do not grow up."

She said, "I still think that there is a good chance that someone else will emerge."

Although six Democrats have already dropped the debate and many more are on the brink, Bakari Sellers, co-chair of the Harris campaign for South Carolina, said it was too early to count the candidates who have time to be heard.

"The reason why the top three are among the top three is simple: there has been a Warren movement project since 2014, Bernie Sanders has been running for president since 2015 and Joe Biden has run for president since I was born," said Sellers. "A lot of these candidates are still learning who they are and defining themselves, and now voters are finally paying attention."

The primary campaign seems to become even more confusing over the next month. Biden does not seem stronger – nor weaker – than he did during the last debate. Warren and Sanders did not appear eager to confront each other. Texas' major donors were looking for photographs with Andrew Yang at the end of the debate, while Senators Amy Klobuchar and Cory Booker were widely seen as significantly more effective than in previous debates.

Jen O'Rourke campaign manager Malley Dillon said people were just starting to "tune in", predicting, along with the other candidates' advisers, that the race would stay the same. fluid "during the winter".

In a keynote address at a fundraiser in Houston on Friday, Biden noted that.

"The fact is that for the first time we had something that was coming up for debate," Biden told the crowd.