The five most outperforming and five underperforming units of the 2020 NFL season

When I was initially asked to identify underperforming units a few years ago, I started by creating a new model to measure performance that was more subjective than my normal models based specifically on the game’s release. I used clues about off-season free agent signings, salaries, preseason projections and when players were drafted – then adjusted for major injuries during the season to calibrate expectations.

In last year’s dossier, driven by the desire to incorporate as many “external” data points as possible, I also considered my win-share model. (Remember: my win split figure is defined as the measure of the impact each player, positional group and side of the ball has on a team’s ability to win first downs and touchdowns, based on wins. And yes, these can be negative.)

The aim is to apply the structure impartially in order to contextualize football and take into account the situations that lead to specific results – and then, in this case, relate them to the expectations. (I rank each team’s position groups before the season using the projected win share.) That last part really matters, as this analysis aims to talk about underperformance in context. For example, Seattle acquiring a high-value commercial coin like Carlos Dunlap mid-season invalidates the Seahawks’ preseason ranking. It’s about using a strategic lens.

This season I went from 10 underperforming units to five underperforming units and five who outperformed, because we all need a little more positivity in our lives at this point. The areas that my model reported as having a negative impact were compared to areas with high preseason expectations and / or a disproportionate negative win share. The areas my model reported for positive impact exceeded their preseason expectations and / or disproportionate positive win share.

So, without further ado, let’s get down to the gist of this file: the top five and worst performing units of 2020. Obviously, all of these could be big factors in 2021 off-season approaches, decisions and strategies.