The four keys of LSU-Texas and everything else to watch in the second week

This puts additional pressure on Devin Duvernay, Collin Johnson & Co. to accept these horizontal passes with an average of 7 or 8 yards per shot. If they can do it, Horns can both move the ball efficiently and potentially use the Tigers. What do you suppose linebackers to wear out faster – having to fight a blocker to tackle the surface or sprint from sideline to sideline and to the brim?

2. Can Texas create big games?

Of course, the quickest way to the end zone goes through the big game. Ehlinger threw some nice balls deep in the field against a stressed secondary Tech, but no matter how you want to frame the match, this favors LSU .

The Tigers' defense, headed by Grant Grant safety, was ranked 18th in my measure of marginal explosiveness last year, and the Texas offensive was ranked 116th. The Horns placed 77th with more than 30 yards and LSU was 23rd. If the short pass does not work, the Horns may need to look for shortcuts, and they will rarely end up against the attack from defense coordinator Dave Aranda.

3. Can the LSU avoid going back?

The first participation of LSU in his new offensive on the fly was a clear success. The Tigers destroyed Georgia Southern's defense by 42 points in the first half and an absurd pass rate of 68%, thus filtering out the time lost. (The national average of the success rate is usually around 43%.)

Beyond the results, the result was different. LSU abandoned the regroupings and apparently allowed the defensive formation, namely the number of defenders in the area, to determine the points against the passes. Joe Burrow threw a total of 20 passes to Ehlingerian within 6 yards of the line of scrimmage. (He scored 18 yards for 189 yards, including two touchdowns and a 44-yard catch-and-run by Justin Jefferson.) There was a significant mix of fast strikes off the water and assists / screens for the backs.

Better yet, the spread formations paved the way for running: 15 rushes without the lost time generated a success rate of 67%. While LSU was an important factor in the manball factor in previous years – eight defenders in the box? We do not care? Let's go over for 3 meters! – The Tigers did an intriguing job placing the ball where the defenders were not on Saturday.

Some of the same questions about short strikes and their effectiveness against stronger and faster defenders apply to both the LSU and the Texas offense. But there was a problem in an otherwise effective attack that caught my attention: the negative games.

Defenders of Georgia Southern finished the game with 12 devastating games (seven tackles for defeat and five missed passes). (A devastating game is a loss tackle, an intercepted or broken pass, or a forced break.) The damage rate is that of the combined divided by the total number of games. It's a 17% damage rate, and although it happened largely in the trash, it's not everything. The Tigers also allowed a 17% damage rate last season, which ranked 85th in the FBS rankings.

The Texas defense has managed a catastrophic rate of 18% last season and was 18% against Louisiana Tech. If someone backs up or gets passes, it's probably LSU.

4. Can LSU match the A-game (likely) of Texas?

Here is something that I wrote in my preview in Texas this summer:

Herman is the ultimate coach of the big games. In four years as a head coach, he lost 10-6 as an underdog and 13-2-1 against the gap. As a favorite in one possession, he is 9-2 and 7-3-1 against the gap. As a healthy favorite, though? He is 21-5 without fail (a winning percentage lower than that of a favorite at a score) and 8-17-1 against the gap.

Texas is a six-point underdog, and the next time a Herman team will not play well because an outsider will be almost the first. LSU plays better as an outsider too. The Tigers were 7-1 against the gap as an underdog in 2017-18, but were only 8-8 as favorites.

Any trend information like this is based on small samples, but we can say without fear that Texas will play a very good football. Will LSU match it or the Tigers will fall victim to the first half as Oklahoma (24-3) and Georgia (17-0) lose to Texas the season last? The answer could determine the outcome of the most important game of the week.

A quick reflection on attendance

Attendance at university football was at its lowest in 22 years in 22 years, in 2018. You've probably heard a lot of reasons for that. Wi-Fi is bad, stadiums are old, televisions are bigger and cheaper, the cost of attending a match is increasing, there are more cupcake games than there were before. All are true, to a certain extent.

However, another factor could either lead to another fall, or prevent a rebound this year: the persistent mediocrity of Tennessee, USC and the state of Florida.

Not really!

It should be noted, however, that attendance is not decreasing everywhere. Comparing home attendance in 2018 to averages from 2005 to 2017, 50 FBS teams were higher in the first than in the last, and 27 more dropped by less than 2,000 fans per game. Things are going in the wrong direction, of course, but with a slight angle.

In reality, a handful of schools resulted in lower averages for everyone.

1. Blue bloods fallen. From 2005 to 2017, five schools (Florida, State of Florida, Tennessee, UCLA and USC) recorded an average of 82,902 visits per game. In 2018, they averaged 70,472. Only one of these historical programs (Florida) achieved eligibility for the cup.

In particular, USC's participation fell to crisis levels: 91,480 in 2006; 87,945 in 2012; 68,459 in 2016; 55,449 in 2018.

2. Increasingly powerful conference programs. Five other Power 5 schools – Illinois, Kansas, Maryland, the state of Oregon and Rutgers – have become catastrophically catastrophic, have resulted in delicate conference changes or, in the case of Rutgers , both.

3. The left behind. Six major programs in particular – BYU, ECU, Hawaii, New Mexico, UConn and UTEP – have been somewhat neglected in recent years, due to struggles on the ground, bad hires, a realignment their combination.

4. MIZ-ZZZZZZ. For the first four games of 2015, Missouri averaged 68,067 per home game. A collapse in the field resulted in a decrease in the number of participants and the November 2015 demonstrations split the supporter base in a way that has not yet been fully resolved. Attendance dropped by 20% in 2016 and has since declined even though the team has rebounded.

5. The stragglers. The Arizona State, Arkansas, California, Minnesota and North Carolina have either been terrible in 2018 or are bouncing back as a result of recent discomfort. Stanford regressed in terms of quality and entertainment value last season. Vanderbilt did not host Georgia or Alabama in 2018. Air Force and Southern Miss are pillars of average attendance.

I just list 26 teams. They represent the totality of the presence debt.

Now, there is obviously a major element of "If you remove all the harm, everything is fine!" in this exercise. This was not meant to be a rigorous scientific exercise. Nevertheless, you can reduce the problems of FBS participation to only about a quarter of FBS.

If the state of Florida, Tennessee, UCLA and USC were all to rebound in 2019, it might be enough of FBS's overall stake compared to the totals of 2018. Of course, these teams went 1 to 3 in the first week and the winning team lost their starting quarter following an injury. This is not encouraging.

Week 2 playlist

Here are 10 games – at least one from every weekend slot – that you should pay attention to if you want to make the most of the weekend, from the point of view of information and entertainment.

All the time is

Friday night
Marshall at Boise State (21h, ESPN2)
In the absence of Thursday night parties this week, here is your showcase party before Saturday. BSU and new quarterback Hank Bachmeier did what they were supposed to do against Florida State and won in Tallahassee, but Marshall is ranked 51st in SP + and still has the best overall athletics in the group of 5s. really worth it.
SP + projection: Boise State 39, Marshall (+11) 29

Early Saturday
Cincinnati at Ohio State (noon, ABC)
I doubt that Cincinnati has the offensive firepower to scare the Buckeyes, but the Bearcats certainly have the defense of testing Justin Fields. OSU quarterback had an almost perfect start against FAU last week, but the Bearcats came second in the week when my measure of marginal efficiency and hindered the day 's work. another sophomore, Dorian Thompson-Robinson of UCLA, last week.
SP + projection: OSU 34, UC (+16) 19

Army in Michigan (noon, Fox)
Remember last season when the army almost beat Oklahoma in pay-per-view? Could there be a new fear of blue blood this time around? Perhaps, but only if the Army's offensive works better than last week, when a well-prepared Rice team nearly got excited at West Point. It is assumed that Michigan has too much offense and athleticism here, but it was also assumed during the OU match last season.
SP + projection: Michigan (-22.5) 45, Army 20

Saturday afternoon
Texas A & M at Clemson (3:30 pm, ABC)
The other big game of the week is mainly spent in the afternoon. I named Kellen Mond, of A & M, the most important player of the 2019 season, both because of his potential and the number of thorny opportunities that A & M has on his schedule. ridiculous. Can he surpass Temsor, the golden god of Clemson, a god of gold, who, to tell the truth, looked terribly rusty last week against Georgia Tech?
SP + projection: Clemson 37, Texas A & M (+17.5) 24

Nebraska at Colorado (3:30 pm Fox)
It's worth mentioning that Colorado was a little better than the Huskers of last week, is not it? While the state of Colorado may not be very important (if any) to improve southern Alabama, the Buffaloes have moved away from the Rams in the second half of a 52-31 victory. , and the Huskers needed three back scores (not the biggest number). sustainable way to make a living) to keep southern Alabama at arm's length. SP + even killed these teams, with the advantage of the field making the difference.
SP + projection: CU (+3.5) 42, NU 40

Saturday night (except LSU-Texas)
Miami North Carolina (8 pm, ACC network)
Manny Diaz takes revenge on Mack Brown for his dismissal in 2013 as the Texas defensive coordinator. But even if you think he'd like to score, he should probably be happy with a win, huh? UNC has confused hell with Jake Bentley of South Carolina last week and could do the same with Jarren Williams of the Canes.
SP + projection: Miami (-5.5) 30, UNC 23

Last Saturday
Cal in Washington (10:30, FS1)
Many Power 5 teams had difficulties with their FBS opponents last week – Cal, to name just one! – But Washington was not one of them. The Huskies dominated a solid East End squad, 47-14, and Jacob Eason scored 27 for 36 points for a total of 349 yards and four goals in his debut. Now comes perhaps the toughest defense (and, uh, the weakest attack) that UW will have to face all season. Can Eason do what Jake Browning could not do last year and avoid angry Golden Bears?
SP + projection: UW (-14) 40, Cal 19

Stanford at USC (10:30 pm ESPN)
Quarterback USC JT Daniels is lost for the season. Stanford quarterback KJ Costello and star tackler Walker Little are both out. This is not quite the game we thought we saw and the lines were hard to find. Nevertheless, we are witnessing the USC attack by Graham Harrell – led instead by rookie Kedon Slovis – against a Stanford defense that completely cleared Northwestern a week ago. The winner leads the Pac-12 (at 1-0, of course, but go ahead).
SP + projection: USC 27 (-1 approximately), Stanford 23.