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A long decline compared to the expectations of the betting market often precedes a dismissal.
Did the recent collapse of New York food send such signals about Mickey Callaway? The answer to this question is a resounding yes.
After a horrible weekend in Miami, the Mets had lost nearly 12 betting units on the season in 45 games – one of the worst ratings of the majors.
An additional context makes the performance even more embarrassing. It's one thing to fight a difficult schedule. The Mets played a pretty easy schedule. New York lies in the east of the NL, the worst division of baseball. In total, 60% of the first years were played against Miami, Washington, Atlanta and Philadelphia. By playing "outsiders", the Mets only managed 333 balls (a record of 6-12, without even meeting the Dodgers, Cubs or Yankees).
In addition, the start of the 9/4 season for the 2019 season has obscured the magnitude of the recent collapse. Since then, the Mets were 11-21 in the standings since the game began Monday night, resulting in a loss of 15.5 betting units.
You can not spell "sinkers" without Mets! The debacle of this weekend has actually accelerated the fall. New York was swept by a Miami team in the series with a 10-31 record. Miami had 2-14 of its previous 16 games!
Here is an overview of the market prices for these losses:
- Friday: The Mets (-230) lost 8-6 as big favorites. The breakeven point of Mets betters at this price was 70%. It was supposed to be an easy jump on a doormat.
- Saturday: The Mets (-125) lost 2-0, managing only one hit. Miami pitcher Pablo Gomez made seven scoreless innings after scoring a record 5.93. It's a blow … against a starter in trouble.
- Sunday: Mets (-190) lost 3-0, getting only two hits. Sandy Alcantara launched a full game late in the game, after entering with a 5.11 EMO. Three points in 18 innings against Miami would be bad. The Mets managed three shots.
In terms of bets, this is not a record of 0-3, it is zero victory and 5.45 losses. The Mets were beaten 13-6 by a glorified minor league team in a series they were supposed to dominate.
In such situations, there is always a lot of criticism to be made. It is unlikely that the dismissal of a manager will solve all the problems. VSiN's argument today is that this sort of thing usually indicates that change is imminent. Markets define "expectations". Senior leaders or coaches who can not get close to expectations are unlikely to stay.
The leash is even shorter when a baseball official (or a football or basketball coach) starts a new season after a previous disappointment. In 2018, under Callaway, the Mets rose to 77-85, dropping six units against the currency line. Leaving Miami on Sunday night, the Callaway Mets had 13 games under .500 by 207, with a net loss of 18 units.
Bettors must be wary … after this week's game against Washington and Detroit, 32 of the last 38 games of the Mets before the break of the all-star game will come against teams that have a winning record. Will punters be ready?
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