The IEA cuts the 2019 estimate for oil demand growth on global trade concerns By Reuters

By Noah Browning

LONDON (Reuters) – The growth outlook for oil demand in 2019 has eased due to the worsening global trade outlook, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday. that stimulus and developing countries should boost growth by 2020.

The Paris-based IEA, which coordinates the energy policies of industrialized countries, has revised downward its estimate of demand growth for 2019 from 100,000 barrels to 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd), but announced that it will increase to 1.4 million barrels per day by 2020.

"The focus is on oil demand as the economic climate weakens … The implications for oil demand become evident," said IEA in its monthly report on the oil.

"The deterioration of trade prospects (is) a theme common to all regions," he added.

Projected growth in oil demand implies maintenance of US and China tariffs on goods in 2018, but IEA said it did not take into account other duties of customs announced in May.

The IEA also attributed weak demand growth in the first half of the year to a slowdown in the petrochemical industry in Europe, a milder climate than the northern hemisphere and stagnant demand for fuel and diesel in the USA.

Demand growth is expected to reach 1.6 million barrels a day in the second half of the year as a result of the measures taken by governments to mitigate the economic slowdown and the strength of consumption in non-developed countries.

(For a graph of growth in world oil demand year-over-year, click on https://tmsnrt.rs/2Ie9rco)

"Stimulus measures are likely to support growth in the near term, and the big central banks have halted or slowed interest rate increases, which should support the growth of the 2H19 and 2020," the paper said. 39; IEA.

US sanctions against Iran and Venezuela, a production reduction pact signed by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, fighting in Libya and attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman added limited uncertainty to supply, the IEA said.

Iranian production fell 210,000 barrels a day in May, reaching 2.4 million barrels a day, according to the IEA, one of its lowest levels since the Iran-Iraq war in 1980s. Exports dropped from 480,000 b / d to 810,000 b / d.

(For a chart on 'The plunge of Iranian production', click on https://tmsnrt.rs/2IfwSlS)

The increase in US supply as well as gains in Brazil, Canada and Norway would contribute to an increase in non-OPEC supply of 1.9 million bpd this year and 2.3 million bpd in 2020 .

(For a chart on "Total Non-OPEC Offer", click on https://tmsnrt.rs/2XLumJk)