The impeachment campaign raises political concerns for Dems House, even as GOP retirements give new impetus

Republicans in the House face a surge to win back the majority in 2020, as rising retirements within the party complicate their efforts to snatch President Nancy Pelosi from the hammer. But they may have received a political gift last week when Democrats doubled their lawsuits as part of an investigation into President Trump's indictment.

The move comes after the Republicans already had good news on the frontlines of the congressional campaign: the party's narrow victory in the special legislative elections in North Carolina. The Republican National Congress Committee said that "victory is another sign that congressional Republicans are about to win the majority".

DEMS ADMIT TRUMP HELPING THE SPECIAL ELECTIONS OF THE SWEEP GOP CONGRESSION IN NORTH CAROLINA

A day later, the House Judiciary Committee reached a milestone with potentially larger implications – approving a resolution defining the panel's indictment investigation, during the first official vote on the subject.

More than half of the Democratic legislators in the House support the launch of an impeachment proceeding. Yet, since the GOP-controlled Senate is unlikely to act on any House articles on impeachment, moderate Democrats have warned that their colleagues are in a political trap.

Those who will face tough re-election next year in the districts Trump captured in 2016 made it clear that the impeachment could undermine the party's efforts to defend its majority (235 to 1) (an independent member of the House of Representatives) to the room.

Democratic representative Anthony Brindisi told Fox News Thursday he was worried. "I am afraid that the investigation will take time because of other problems."

And the congressman – who represents a red district – said he would "vote no [on impeachment]unless something irresistible comes out of it.

HOME PROCEDURES DO NOT ACTUALLY MOVE THE PRESIDENT – STILL

Florida representative Donna Shalala, who went from red to blue in the Miami district in mid-term elections last year, told reporters that the dismissal was "sucking the air out of all the good things we do. "

And she warned that it was "difficult" for House Democrats to focus on issues crucial to their constituents "given the platform". Shalala pointed out that she had only asked four dismissal questions during eleven town halls in her district during the last parliamentary recess.

Hawaii's representative, Tulsi Gabbard – who does not support the indictment – warned last week that "it is important that we reflect on what is in the interest of the country and the American people. ".

And in an interview with "Full Court Press with Greta Van Susteren", the Democratic presidential candidate said that "the continuation of the impeachment process is something that, in my opinion, will only further tear our country apart" .

While the president of the judiciary, Jerry Nadler, promised "an aggressive series of hearings" and said his panel was conducting a dismissal investigation, Pelosi and other Democratic House leaders – aware of the more moderate members facing difficult re-elections – have largely refrained from using this terminology. S addressing reporters, Pelosi avoided using the term "imputation inquiry".

While the judicial commission's decision could be a gift to the House GOP, a Democratic national strategist working on the House races has warned that "Republicans are getting ahead if they think 2020 will be decided on the basis of the dismissal ".

The strategist, who requested anonymity to speak more freely, said, "I do not think the perception of the American public has really changed. If you ask the average voter, I do not think he differentiates what the Judiciary Committee did last week from what he does this week. It's really, very initiated and probably half of the people you talk to could not even tell you the difference. I think they read too much. "

The Judiciary Committee vote comes with 15 House Republicans who are now heading for the exit door in 2020. And only two of these GOP lawmakers are launching state-wide bids for a governor or a senator. The others are really retiring. This is a change from two years ago: at the same stage of the 2018 cycle, nine of the 14 House Republicans who did not stand for re-election were waiting for a higher position. The Democrats, thanks to a 40-seat pick-up at the mid-term, regained the majority after eight years as backbenchers.

By contrast, so far only four Democrats in the House have said they are not running for reelection.

"For many of these Republicans, this is the first time they have been in the minority and it is difficult to be part of the minority in the House. You have to be attentive to an ever-present president and defend him, which is not fun, "said Ty Matsdorf, a veteran Democratic strategist who recently served as Independent Director of Expenditure at the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Democrat.

On the recent wave of GOP House retirements, Matsdorf said, "It's still a good indicator of what will happen when you see such waves, because it tells you that something is wrong. systematically.

And Matsdorf predicts that between now and January we will see the "bulk of the rest of the Republican retreats".

Long-time Republican strategist Colin Reed confirmed that "no one likes to be in the minority. It's just a fact of life. "

And he noted that "generally when the control of the lower houses changes hands, you can witness an exodus of retirements in the coming years, the old presidencies getting used to life as members of high rank of the minority ".

Reed acknowledged that "it is indisputable that the retirements of recent weeks have not helped the Republican cause". He said that the party claiming the majority remains improbable.

However, only a handful of retirements from the House GOP are in dynamic districts. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy told reporters on Friday: "Let me be very frank, I'm not worried about any retreat."

He then added an exception: outgoing Texas representative Will Hurd. Democrats view the siege as a potential replacement.

McCarthy spoke three days after Republican Dan Bishop's victory Tuesday in a special election in North Carolina, presented by experts as an indicator of upcoming events in 2020, giving the GOP a much needed boost.

But his low margin on Democrat Dan McCready in a neighborhood where the GOP has a distinct advantage has not erased fears that Republicans in the House still have to face headwinds in 2020.

Matsdorf argued that if Bishop had lost, it would have triggered a flood of retirements from the House of Representatives. He pointed out that Republicans' victory in the special elections "will slow down retirements, but not completely because there is a Republican seat".

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Reed downplayed the race's impact, saying he "is reluctant to focus on special elections. I think political predators are exaggerating the results of the special election. "

Chad Pergram from Fox News contributed to this story.