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Betty Fernandez of Macy's department store is meeting with a potential candidate about job offers at an employment show in Miami on April 5th. Analysts expect the jobs report released on Friday to show that employers continued to create jobs last month.
Joe Raedle / Getty Images
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Joe Raedle / Getty Images
Betty Fernandez of Macy's department store is meeting with a potential candidate about job offers at an employment show in Miami on April 5th. Analysts expect the jobs report released on Friday to show that employers continued to create jobs last month.
Joe Raedle / Getty Images
This summer will mark the 10th anniversary of the end of the Great Recession and the beginning of the long period of economic growth. And Friday's monthly jobs report should be the last sign that expansion is continuing.
"Our prospects and mine are positive and healthy – for the US economy to be a growth vector for the rest of the year," Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday.
The economy rebounded in the first quarter, recording annual growth of 3.2%, well above the end of 2018. Retailers recorded strong sales in March after a tight month of February.
Economists expect to see another solid report on jobs Friday, when the Labor Department will release its preview of the April employment conditions. Even with an unemployment rate below 4%, forecasters see more opportunities for job creation.
"We do not see any evidence of overheating," Powell said. "For a long time, anecdotal reports have been about labor shortages and difficulties finding qualified work, among other things, but job creation is very strong."
US employers created an average of 180,000 jobs per month in the first three months of the year. Analysts predict that hiring in April remained at or above this level and that the unemployment rate remained at 3.8%.
Central banks expect the trend to continue, fueled by rising consumer spending and corporate investment.
Wages have also risen, but not at a rate likely to raise fears of inflation. Workers' productivity increased in the first quarter, and additional production helps employers control their costs.
Inflation was lower than the 2% target set by the Fed. But Fed policymakers chose not to lower interest rates at their meeting this week, despite pressure from President Trump.
Asset tweeted Tuesday, the US economy "would skyrocket" if the Fed reduced rates by one percentage point. Powell said the Fed would not be influenced by White House pressure.
"We are a non-political institution," he said. "And that means we do not think about political considerations in the short term – we do not discuss them and we do not take them into account in our decisions, one way or the other."
One of the weak points to watch for in Friday's jobs report is manufacturing employment. Factories removed 6,000 jobs in March and only 1,000 in February. The manufacturing industry created an average of 22,000 jobs a month for the previous year.
The index of manufacturing activity this week has slowed significantly, although the factory sector continues to grow.
"Manufacturing has been weak everywhere in the world," Powell said. "Services have grown faster, but we expect a positive contribution from the manufacturing sector to growth."
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