The Jon Lester Signing Fallout: What it says about Cubs, how you use those innings, more

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Jon Lester’s six-year contract with the Chicago Cubs was over, and I don’t think anyone – to be honest with you – would have told you in November that he was. absolutely was going to be back in 2021. Lester was close to turning 37, we knew the Cubs were looking to make big changes, we knew there wouldn’t be a lot of spending, we also knew Lester’s performance was in decline. So I don’t want to put that in place like I’m saying that Lester’s signing with the Nationals last night was a shocking, shattering moment and drawing the line in the sand for the offseason. It was not.

But for sure feels as was the case with a lot of people, especially considering how important Lester was to the organization and how much he wanted to come back to the Cubs in 2021. We’ve talked about this concept before: sometimes there’s things that outweigh the ultimate question of “Does this move gradually help us win a fraction of an extra game?” Sometimes you just need to assess what a move is worth for fans, future players, the relationships you hope to have, and the things you claim to represent as an organization. Again, I’m not saying this all means the Cubs absolutely should have signed Lester again without a doubt, but (1) I can understand why it ends up there for some people, and (2) it’s all fair to consider. , even if you decide the baseball aspect is pushing you the other way.

Also? It’s not like Lester has a monster contract that would have been indefensible for the Cubs.

Jon Lester’s deal with the Nationals is exactly in the range you would have expected for him, with the Nationals doing what they always do (DEFERRRRRRR), making the current value around $ 4.75 million:

Is $ 4.75 million too much for Lester in this market for the baseball value it provides to Cubs? Perhaps. Maybe they know him best and think it’s a bad bet to be a usable 4/5 this year. Maybe that even outweighs the value of the clubhouse and the leadership it provides (which, by the way, is also baseball value, as it can impact other players in a way that you can’t fully project) But again, it’s not like it’s so much money that anyone criticizes the Cubs’ decision here is just plain wrong.

Plus, Lester would have taken less from the Cubs – Dave Kaplan and Gordon Wittenmyer indicate that Lester would have agreed to a $ 4 million (or less) contract with the Cubs earlier in the offseason.

Wittenmyer went even further in his article on non-movement, absolutely enlightening the Cubs:

Likewise, Patrick Mooney sees the big picture of the decline of the Cubs organization:

As a fan, I wish it had turned out differently. I wish there was a real chance there for Lester to get back to the Cubs, to get more than one start, to retire with the Cubs if he wanted to. And most importantly, I wish I hadn’t felt like all of this wasn’t just a reflection of a baseball front office that was told they couldn’t spend a dime. They apparently made an offer to Lester, but it was “not close” to the offer of the Nationals. The money to bring back a Cubs legend is just not there.

Having said that, I have to offer the other side of this thing, because sometimes you decide it’s time to move on, whatever the money. In the case of the Cubs, what that argument would look like is this: We don’t know how strong we will be in 2021, but we would love to have innings available to give our younger ones we don’t. absolutely-know-what-they-might-be starting pitchers (you can only rate them if you have innings to give) We would also like to have a chance, the argument would go, to give sleeves to younger low buyout and rebound types that could offer higher risk but more upside in 2021 (at a lower cost), and a chance to contribute in 2022 and beyond as well. And with the few million savings there, we might add a left-wing defender as well. Or whatever.

That would be the argument.

That’s not really good. I’m trying to separate myself from the fandom of individual players for a while and look to 2022+. If the Cubs are going to have a quick reboot, it will not only require moves that bring in longer-term acquisitions, but it will also take some surprising blowouts this year to find out what you have next offseason (when, if you’re actually trying for. fast turnaround time, you will spend some money again). So, then, you only have one season to play so you can better understand what you’ve got internally – how the guys developed during the stoppage year and how their stuff is actually going to play against the hitters of the. big league. The group we’re talking about (Tyson Miller, Cory Abbott, Keegan Thompson, Justin Steele, etc.) are not top prospects. The types of buy-low and bounce we’re talking about (Shelby Miller and maybe a little more certain than that, but not a lot) aren’t good bets for success. But if this year is to be a slog anyway, you might as well get it information apart from that.

Anyway. It stings to hear that Lester wanted to return to the Cubs, and probably would have done so for even less than the modest sum he received from the Nationals. It also says a lot of nasty things about the state of the organization. All good points, and I credit them. I feel them, to some extent, too. But I also see the point – it may be small, but it does exist – in choosing to give big league innings in 2021 to pitchers other than Jon Lester.



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