The Memo: Dem race for the White House takes a new form

Former Vice President Joe BidenJoseph (Joe) Robinette BidenOcasio-Cortez says she's not ready to approve the 2020 candidate, will focus on local races. Sanders is facing a big problem with Biden and black voters Sanders presents his plan to help family farmers stop MORE is the candidate to beat in the Democratic presidential primary.

Biden had a stronger than expected launch in his campaign, opening a large lead in several opinion polls.

The extent of the "Biden Bump" is all the more surprising as the former vice president had to navigate troubled waters in early April, before making his official nomination, when several women said he had been hurt by comfortable with them in the past.

Certainly, the 2020 competition is in its infancy. The caucuses of Iowa are in nine months and the twists are numerous.

But for now, Biden's argument that he is the best candidate to defeat President TrumpDonald John TrumpKamala Harris: Barr lied to Trump addressed to Congress by Palestinians in Gaza: "Stop the violence and work for peace" O. Rourke: The Mueller Report Says the Need for an Removal Against Trump MORE wears the day.

Democrats of all stripes are desperate to deny Trump a second term.

"There is a freight train coming on the track and if we do not take drastic action to derail it, our country will change," said Dick Harpootlian, historical figure of South Carolina's democratic politics, currently senator. and was formerly party chairman.

Harpootlian is already in the corner of Biden. He organized a fundraiser for the former vice president at his home on Saturday night, during which the candidate stirred up a stir in the media by calling Trump "clown".

Harpootlian argued that progressive political priorities are secondary to victory over Trump.

"In this contest, there is only one problem – not Medicare-for-All, not the Green New Deal. That's who can beat Donald Trump. In my mind, there is only one person in this field who can clearly face Donald Trump, not only in debates but in the campaign, "he said.

Biden's skeptics insist that the former vice-president's early forces could prove to be illusory, given his blundering ability and indifferent performance during his previous two White House races, 1988 and 2008.

Others wonder if his age and his ideological moderation really fit the mood of a party recently energized by progressive youngsters, including the Republican. Alexandria Ocasio-CortezAlexandria Ocasio-CortezOcasio-Cortez says she's not ready to approve the 2020 candidate, will focus on local races. Klobuchar is a meritorious candidate without attracting attention. Climate change is a major issue for 2020 Dems PLUS (D-N.Y.).

In the presidential field, almost all of Biden's rivals are far less known than him. This could give these competitors a lot of room to grow – and knock it off its pedestal.

Nevertheless, Biden's strength at the door complicates the calculation for the other candidates. Sen. Bernie SandersBernard (Bernie) SandersSanders faces a big problem with voters from Biden and Blacks Sanders presents his plan to help peasant families stop in Iowa The student debt crisis is not what you think MORE (I-Vt.) Demonstrated great fundraising power and had little vote behind Biden until Biden officially started the race.

This is no longer the case. Of the four polls released last week – from Quinnipiac University, CNN / SSRS, ABC News / Washington Post and Morning Consult – Sanders, there are more than 20 points behind two and 14 points behind another. The gap of Biden-Sanders was only in one.

In the Qunnipiac poll, Sanders had fallen to third place, even though there was only one statistically insignificant point behind Sen. Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth Ann WarrenSanders faces a big problem with Biden voters and Blacks The student debt crisis is not what you believe to be Klobuchar is a valid candidate who gets no attention MORE (D-Mass.).

"The dynamics have changed somewhat," said Joe Trippi, a Democratic strategist who guided the 2004 presidential campaign of former Vermont governor Howard Dean.

Before Biden entered the race, "most of the players were trying to distinguish themselves from Bernie Sanders," said Trippi. "Now, they're all trying to contrast with [Biden], like Trump. Biden is the center of attention, be it Trump or Bernie, and all that helps. "

Trump called Biden "Sleepy Joe" and mocked his support for one of the major unions, the International Federation of Fire Fighters.

But being attacked by Trump has never hurt a Democrat with liberal activists. Politico has reported in recent days that some Trump advisers were uncomfortable with the president's attacks on Biden, fearing that they could not turn against them.

Elsewhere in the democratic field, another frequent target of Trump – Warren – showed signs of growth in the polls. She made strong impression on the stretch and at multiple-candidate events, such as a recent forum in Las Vegas organized by the SEIU union and the Center for American Progress, a liberal think tank.

Anecdotal evidence from the early states also provides signs of hope to the Massachusetts senator.

"The person who seems to have a little more weight is Elizabeth Warren's campaign," said Bret Nilles, chairman of the Democratic Party in Linn County, Iowa, which is home to the second largest city of the state, Cedar Rapids. "She had good events, people seem to like her a little more."

Sanders and Warren are however widely perceived as competing with the same universe of left-wing voters. A serious battle between the two could ultimately help Biden, who remains undisputed as a centrist leader in the race.

The overcrowded terrain could also benefit his advantage.

The expectation of former Beto O'Rourke (D-Texas) representative is in a free fall, in part because his thunder was stolen by the mayor of South Bend, Ind. Pete ButtigiegPeter (Pete) Paul ButtigiegButtigieg, the husband met Jimmy Carter, attended the Sunday School class. Klobuchar is a worthy candidate. Kate McKinnon is not listened to while Elizabeth is talking about canceling her college's debt on "SNL & # 39; (D), which has a similar demographic appeal.

Party insiders are already looking further into the primary agenda to find other ways in which the sheer number of candidates could have an impact.

South Carolina, for example, is the first contest where black Democrats will get a lot of votes.

A non-aligned strategist from the state-owned Palmetto Party, who requested anonymity, said the other candidates could benefit if the two most prominent black candidates, Sens. Kamala HarrisKamala Devi Harris Kamala Harris: Barr lied to Congress Kamala Harris celebrates the historic triumph of three candidates for the African-American pageant contest Klobuchar is a worthy candidate, who receives no attention. FOLLOWING (D-Calif.) And Cory BookerCory Anthony BookerOcasio-Cortez says she's not ready to approve the 2020 candidate, will focus on local races. Buttigieg, the husband met with Jimmy Carter, attends the Sunday School class. Klobuchar is a meritorious candidate, without attention MORE (D-N.J.), Are still in the race at this stage.

"Having them both on the ballot will divide the African-American vote and will be a great opportunity for another candidate," said the strategist.

Biden enjoys strong support from blacks, thanks in part to his loyal service – and his obvious personal affection – of former President Obama.

In the Quinnipiac University survey, for example, Biden had support from 42% of non-white respondents, more than 30 points ahead of his closest rival, Warren. Sanders, who struggled with non-white voters during his 2016 campaign, won only 7% of the vote.

Virtually all Democratic sources who spoke at The Hill emphasized the fluidity of the race. Some cited, as a warning, Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham ClintonSanders faces a big problem with Biden voters and blacks. Klobuchar is a valid candidate. Sanders refuses to rank the Obama presidency at the rank of president, but says it's an "A +" compared to Trump PLUSThe dominant position in polls at the very beginning of the primaries and primaries of 2008 and 2016 ended in her defeat against Obama and Sanders, which led her uncomfortably.

Others, like Kris Mueller, president of the Democratic Party of Merrimack County in New Hampshire, pointed out that the party was a "big tent" with various contenders bringing "something unique" and many having the ability to ignite.

Sean Bagniewski, president of the Democratic Party in Iowa's most populous county, Polk, warned that "everything has been scrambled" at the moment. He cited conversations with state democrats who have not yet chosen their five best choices, let alone one candidate.

Field operations in caucus states such as Iowa are vital, and Bagniewski claimed that Warren's campaign and – perhaps more surprisingly – Booker's society were "above everyone else" at this early stage.

For the moment, it's Biden who is in the limelight – and the rest of the squad is just fighting to join him at the center of the stage.

"Trump still eats a lot of attention," Trippi said. "Biden absorbs a lot of attention. At the present time, anyone who engages with Biden attracts attention. How much space is left for the 18 or 19 other unrepresented candidates? "

The memo is a column of Niall Stanage, mainly devoted to the presidency of Donald Trump.