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The memo: Trump begins to climb until 2020

President TrumpDonald John TrumpTrump cites tax cuts on judges as having the biggest impact of his presidency. Trump quotes tax cuts on judges as having the biggest impact of his Ocasio-Cortez presidency returns to Trump after he quoted him in a tweet refusing dismissal MORE will run for reelection on Tuesday with a huge rally in Florida – but faces a difficult rise for a second term.

His ratings of approval remain historically mediocre. Its position in the key states of the Rust Belt and the Midwest is just as bad. And he is the most polarizing president of modern times, with those who apparently hate him in the plural compared to those who love him.

The first internal polls conducted as part of the Trump campaign show the magnitude of the challenge facing the president.

ABC News on Friday released data from these polls that Trump was losing Pennsylvania to the Democratic leader Joe BidenJoe BidenBiden calls for equal pay for the US women's football team Biden calls for equal pay for the US women's football team Yang: Standing next to Biden on the debate scene, would help strengthen the recognition of the name MORE 16 points, Wisconsin 10 points and Florida 7 points. Trump won the three states in 2016.

The same data also showed Trump ahead of Biden, the former vice president, by just 2 points in the Texas GOP Redoubt.

Trump Campaign Director, Brad ParscaleBradley (Brad) James ParscaleMORE, ridiculed the data as "old" in a statement to ABC, in which he also insisted that "since then, we have witnessed huge swings in favor of the president".

Trump, generally, is adamant that public polls showing him in trouble are all wrong.

He tweeted Friday a video that combines excerpts from his electoral night victory in 2016 with polls that predicted his heavy defeat against the Democratic candidate. Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham Clinton 2020 Achilles Talon of the Democrats: The Senate Democrats of 2020 Achilles Talon: The Senate House Intel Republican: "Crazy" not to take any information on the opponent of alien ally PLUS.

The supporters of the president rely on these memories. They also note that a split democrat primary could harm the party's candidate.

"It is difficult to take the poll seriously after 2016," said a Republican strategist linked to the White House. "Trump scores each of these Democratic candidates while they have their knives out one for the other."

In recent weeks, Trump has criticized most of the leading candidates on the Democratic side, targeting the Senators. Bernie SandersBernie SandersConfused by polls? Observe the first primary states – not national figures Confused by polls? Look at the first primary states – not Biden's national numbers leading in the first electoral states, followed by Warren, Sanders: PLUS poll (I-Vt.), Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth Ann WarrenBiden calls for equal pay for the American women's football team Biden calls for equal pay for the US women's Trump team unshakeable in denials while support for dismissal increases MORE (D-Mass) and Kamala HarrisKamala Devi HarrisBiden calls for equal pay for the US women's football team Biden calls for equal pay for the US women's football team Confused by the polls? Observe the first primary states – not national figures MORE (D-Calif.) As well as his favorite sheet, Biden.

Trump's hopes are also backed by a strong economy – a factor that almost all political observers, on both sides of the partisans' divide, consider to be his strongest card.

The national unemployment rate was 3.6% – the lowest of the Trump presidency – in April and May. This is down from 4.7% when he took office in January 2017. During the Great Recession, the unemployment rate peaked at 10% in October 2009.

The stock market has also risen sharply during Mr. Trump's presidency, though he has recently complained of flying higher without the interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve.

He told ABC News last week that if the Fed's current president, Jerome Powell – a candidate for Trump – "had not done anything or maybe even eased" interest rates, the Dow Jones Industrial Average could be "10,000 points higher".

However, even the country's strong economic performance has not significantly improved its approval ratings. Moreover, his status with voters in the major states that led him to victory two and a half years ago raises serious questions.

A recent series of state polls in Morning Consult showed that Trump's net approval ratings were in negative territory in Wisconsin, by 13 points; Michigan by 12 points; Pennsylvania, by 7 points; and Ohio by 4 points.

"He has to spend a lot of time in these battlefield states arguing that he works for them," said Terry Madonna, PR professor and survey expert at Franklin & Marshall College, Pennsylvania.

"The key is to know if it can generate the same kind of enthusiasm and enthusiasm within the white working class?" Added Madonna. "That got him the 2016 election, with the Rust Belt strategy. These voters are always with him, but it is the level of enthusiasm that will be really important. "

The joy of the Trump base could be particularly vital, as many voters opposed to the president are eager to overthrow him.

In a poll conducted by Washington Post-ABC News in April, 52 percent of registered voters said they would "definitely" not vote for him, while only 30 percent would certainly vote for him. Fourteen percent said they would "consider" voting for him.

Even Republicans who have been skeptical about Trump in the past recognize that it can not be counted, especially if the economy continues to progress.

But they also note how unusual the 2016 race was, since Trump's victory in the Republican nomination process at a general election against a historically unpopular opponent whom Trump had lost the popular vote for.

Doug Heye, a former communications director of the Republican National Committee, said Trump could "definitely win."

But Heye also warned that the president's approval ratings did not look very good and that "the last time he had put him on the run against the second-least-popular candidate in history to win . He can not count on that twice. "

He also noted that he was "smart" from the Trump campaign team to try to broaden the electoral map. Trump's contributors looked at the states in which the president lost relatively tightly in 2016, which represents potential gains, in which they place New Hampshire, New Mexico and Nevada.

A suggestion that Oregon could also be at stake seems more fanciful, though. Trump lost 11 points in 2016, and no Republican presidential candidate has brought the state since incumbent President Ronald Reagan in 1984.

Allan Lichtman, a professor of history at the American university and one of the few experts to have predicted Trump's victory in 2016, said that according to his model, the president's chances for 2020 " are much better than conventional wisdom allows. "

But he also warned that the Democrats chose their candidate very much.

"Can they find their John KennedyJohn Neely KennedyMORE or their Barack-Obama-of-2008? There may or may not be such a jewel "in the big democratic field, he said.

Meanwhile, while the political world is trying to read tea leaves in an election that will still be 17 months old, the president himself – no matter what the odds – does not matter.

Ask by George StephanopoulosGeorge Robert StephanopoulosTrump cites tax cuts on judges as having the biggest impact of his presidency. Trump quotes the tax cuts on judges having the biggest impact of his presidency. Trump asks Mulvaney to leave the room during his interview with ABC because of coughing During his interview on ABC News about the internal poll showing him downstairs, Trump first ignored the importance of the poll.

He then added, "I just met an investigator and I win everywhere, so I do not know what you're talking about.

The memo is a column by Niall Stanage that focuses on Donald Trump's presidency.

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