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The New York Mets (76-71) have a real chance of qualifying for second place in the NL Wild Cards if they are able to break out of their weekend streak with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
What does living exactly mean? Of course, they can not be swept away because with the Chicago Cubs facing the Pittsburgh Pirates, it is likely that they will win the last two games of their series with a win of 17-7 on Friday, making things even less promising for the Mets. The 9-2 loss to Mets on Friday allowed them to come back three games behind in the Wild Card race.
For the Mets, their worst scenario would be to lose each of the next two games and the Cubs to win the next two. That would bring them back to five in the race and bring their number of eliminations to nine with 13 games to play in the season.
This number of eliminations would effectively eliminate the hopes of the Mets to participate in the playoffs because even if the Mets won 10 of the last 13 games, the Cubs would only have to win six games to qualify for the playoffs which would allow them to play baseball. along the stretch and still make the playoffs.
It does not even take into account that the Mets are currently lagging behind the Philadelphia Phillies (2.5 GB) and the Milwaukee Brewers (1.0 GB), both of which would be better able to capitalize if the Cubs failed.
However, if the Mets can stay within three games of winning, either by winning the next two games, or by giving the Pirates aged 65 to 83 a way to win a game, the Mets would in fact be in a very good position to compete. playoffs.
After the tough series of the Mets with the Dodgers, they will travel to Colorado to face the 63 to 85 Rockies, which are only better than the Miami Marlins at the moment. They then have a series against the Cincinnati Reds, 69-79.
After that, the Mets return home to face the worst NL team, the Marlins, for four games before facing the Atlanta Braves to finish the season.
Meanwhile, the Cubs are not facing a brutal program at all, but will have to face the St. Louis Cardinals (83-64) seven more times this season and finish the season in St. Louis.
With the NL powerhouse still separated by just four games, the Cardinals will make at least one sustained effort in the first four-game series to bury their rivals.
The Cardinals will also face the Washington Nationals next week, which could give the Mets a chance to qualify for the Wild Card first place, potentially giving them a chance to have a field advantage for a potential Wild game. Card.
Regarding the only team that would probably be better placed to take advantage of all these complications, the Milwaukee Brewers did not find themselves facing a team over .500 the rest of the season after this weekend. With Christian Yelich For the rest of the year, it remains to be seen how good the Brewers are without him.
If the Mets find a way to win the next two games and / or remain three games behind the second player in the Wild Card NL category, their 14.2% playoff odds are as follows. Fangraphs have a good regular exponential increase all the way in that could eventually get them to see the playoffs for the first time since 2016.
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