The mid-season awards of MLB 2019 Ringer

The break from the stars is an excellent opportunity to take stock of the reward races. Not only does free time give everyone the opportunity to catch their breath and look around, we now have enough information to tell the difference between a good month and half a year. a season of MVP caliber. That said, the first half of 2019 has resulted in quite challenging rewards races for the handicap, with exciting one-on-one races for the NL MVP, Cy Young and the Rookie of the Year, and total chaos in the discussion of AL Cy Young. This shows the evolution of the statistical landscape in baseball resulting from changes in the use of pitchers and supercharged baseball. So, let's see who is in pole position for MLB major rewards and who is well placed to charge in the second half.

MVP AL: Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels

Since the first full season of Trout in 2012, the AL MVP race has generally pitted Trout against another candidate who has had a career year in both number and story: Miguel Cabrera in his Triple Crown year, Josh Donaldson when 39, he had led the 2015 Blue Jays in the playoffs, Mookie Betts posted a season of 10 wins on a team of 108 wins last year.

Such an antagonist does not exist this year. Trout is leading the group in homers, OBP, walks and slugging percentage, while playing a good defense in a high position. As a result, not only does he lead the American League in the three major versions of WAR, but he also has much to do to make irrelevant the normal warnings about the inaccuracy of such parameters. Trout is at least a victory over the next best AL position player in every WAR metric, and leads Alex Bregman's second place 6.2 to 3.8 on FanGraphs. The addition of throwers to the equation involves two Texas Rangers: Lance Lynn, second among all AL players in fWAR, but still more than two wins behind Trout, and Mike Minor, who follows Trout between 5 , 9 and 5.7 in bWAR. Still, there is no Jacob deGrom 2018 in this mix. Even if there were, deGrom himself proved last year that pitchers and players in position are not treated the same way in MVP votes – if they did, the right-handers Mets would have been NL's MVP, not Christian Yelich.

Bregman would probably be second on my ballot; He writes a worthy continuation of his record year in 2018 with a .393 OBP and 23 home runs. He holds the fort in Houston while José Altuve, Carlos Correa and George Springer all spent time in IL. It's also nice to see an episodic campaign from Rafael Devers of Boston, who beat .324 / .377 / .546 after a disappointing second-year season in 2018. Betts and Matt Chapman of Oakland would eventually get some Majority votes, as always, but unless Trout takes the second half to go to the Eagles training camp, the only race here is for second place.

MVP NL: Cody Bellinger, Los Angeles Dodgers

At present, it's a two-horse race between Bellinger, who controls the NL standings (OPS +, points scored, all three WARs), and last year's winner, Christian Yelich . Bellinger walks more than ever, hits less and hits for higher average and more power than ever. Yes, the guy who hit 39 homers as a rookie and seems to be able to throw a moose on a house has developed even more power in his third season in the majors. Bellinger has also turned into a superb right defender, perhaps the best in baseball.

The argument for Yelich is that he has virtually the same offensive season as Bellinger: Yelich strikes a .329 / .433 / .707 with 31 homers and a 180 wRC +, while Bellinger is at .336 / .432 / .692 with 30 home runs and a 184 wRC +. By the way, it's been over a year since Christian Yelich is a powerful elite player, and it's still weird. The guy had never even hit .500 until last year. It's like when Jonah Hill did Mid 1990s and everyone was like "Oh yes, the nerdy kid of Accepted is an author now! While I was still getting used to him as an acclaimed dramatic actor of prestige.

Whatever it is, let's get back to the discussion for Yelich. The reigning MVP has a better season on the baspaths; Yelich has 19 out of 21 attempts in stolen base attempts, while Bellinger has only 8 out of 13 attempts. In addition, the difference between Bellinger and Yelich in WAR's three metrics is based on advanced defensive metrics, which are imprecise, especially in (1) cornering positions and (2) partly seasonal samples.

This is not a terrible argument, but I'm not sure I find it convincing. Bellinger's defensive advantage follows him from one site to another, which does not eliminate the possibility that his screaming numbers are a statistical mirage, but it greatly diminishes the likelihood of it being a mirage. Moreover, even the most charitable reading of Yelich's statistics compared to Bellinger's statistics leaves the two women in an absolute stalemate. Take the defense entirely and Bellinger has two tenths of a win ahead of WARP, Yelich, one tenth ahead of BWAR and tied with the tenth FWAR win. There are cases to prove that they are shoulder to shoulder, but there is no such case to give Yelich a length of time.

If a third person belongs to the discussion of the most useful player of the BN, it is Max Scherzer, which is between Bellinger and Yelich on the three rankings WAR. Scherzer leads all the NL pitchers in innings, FIP, strikeouts and K% (with a staggering margin of 35.2 to 30.7 on the second) deGrom. He is close to DRA and his teammate Stephen Strasburg. Scherzer finished exactly 10th in NL's most valuable player, voting in each of the last three seasons, but he should have been much higher each time. But again, DeGrom's 2018 season was better than Scherzer 2019. He finished only fifth, despite a lower class of candidates for the position. This is not a good sign for Scherzer's most valuable player.

AL Cy Young Award: Charlie Morton, Tampa Bay Rays

From a statistical point of view, it's a price race as confusing as you'll probably see it, and I do not choose Morton, not because I'm waiting for it to be there. continue to race well until the end of the season and win (I do not), but because I have to choose a name.

When I evaluate candidates for Cy Young, I use a variety of numbers to determine the pitfighter's strengths and weaknesses. These numbers are often interconnected, that is, a high rate of elimination and low contact lead to low ARD, which is correlated with low ARS. If a pitcher has a low ERA for enough runs, he will display a high WAR total. Most of the time, a winner stands out through these figures, like chupacabra through a thick fog. But not always. To illustrate this point, here are the leaders of various relevant statistical categories among AL and NL launchers.

Morton leads in four of these categories, including the ERA and best estimator ERA (DRA-), and is the only thrower to appear in the top three of the three AL WAR scorecards. But where he leads, it's not a lot, and where he hangs, that's a lot: he yields two complete wins to Minor in bWAR, he pitched almost 20 innings less than Bauer, and he is 50 points behind Verlander in his opponent OBP. It's the same with the other candidates: the numbers based on Lynn's DRA and FIP are excellent, but her ERA is almost double that of Morton. Verlander is the other way around: he has ruled out the base riders better than any American League pitcher, but he conceded more home runs than any other baseball pitcher this year. competitive enough. Lucas Giolito has a good deal, but does not shine in a particular category.

It is probably easier to predict who will win this award at the end of the season than to say who is ahead. I would expect that a high pitcher and a heavy run of a winning team will win this trophy at the end of the season, meaning Cole, Verlander or maybe even Chris Dirty, who has recovered well from a difficult start. Morton is my favorite case for now, but it's so open that I can not be more certain than that.

Cy Young: Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals

Two weeks ago, I was about to pass the baton to Ryu, who was in the middle of the historic season, with an EER falling to 1.26 and a K / BB ratio of 17, then three. his last start in June was at home and three Padres made his first start in July. Ryu still leads the rankings in these categories, but now that they are exceptional and not a record, Scherzer is not only back in the picture of Cy Young, he is also in the lead.

Scherzer has more than 20 innings ahead of Ryu and 11% of K%. Of the 12 categories listed above, Scherzer is in the lead six and is no worse than the fourth out of six. Ryu ranks 10th in the heats and 18th in K%, closer to last place than first place; Scherzer has a much more complete case. Luis Castillo, of Cincinnati, also beat Scherzer in a few categories and is in line for the traditional third-place Cy Young for a promising pitcher, which was won by Aaron Nola last year, Luis Severino in 2017 and Kyle Hendricks. in 2016. Strasbourg, which by Baseball FlyerThe advanced measures have been about as good as Scherzer this year, should also be taken into account.

AL Rookie of the Year: John Means, Baltimore Orioles

So, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was well since it was called, but a batting line of .249 / .328 / .413 and 98 wRC + digits are not quite clear from the world. He has even outstripped his teammate and countryman Cavan Biggio from the Hall of Fame, despite playing in another 23 games. Now, everything we know about Vladito indicates an ability to switch the switch, to hit 30 homers in the second half, and to leave the tournament as the LA rookie of the year anyway, but he does has not done so yet. Or, if his performance in the Home Run Derby is an indication, he could stop the rotation of the Earth, compose the calendar in April and resume his rookie season. Everything is possible.

Currently, the most productive player among AL rookies is Rays' second baseman Brandon Lowe, who hit .276 / .339 / .523 with 16 homers, 5 steals and one decent defense. But with Vladito still warming up, it's not an impressive crop of rookie players overall.

So for now, I'll give this award to left-handed John Means of the Orioles. He is not a sexy candidate: he plays for a last place team, he is 26 years old and his peripherals are awful, because in his ERA, he has a race and a half lower than his DRA or his FIP – but he got an ERA of 2.50 in 82 2/3 innings, which is the best performance in a mediocre field.

If Vladito is unleashed in the second half, we can return to this discussion.

Rookie of the year NL: Pete Alonso, New York Mets

What I would do as AL has lent this award to the NL for a year because I'm not sure that any of AL's best novice artists to date – Lowe, Means and Tigers, right Spencer Turnbull – would end up over from sixth place. my entry for a hypothetical unified rookie newsletter of the year. I would choose not only Alonso, but also Fernando Tatís (Padres), Alex Verdugo (Dodgers), Chris Paddack (right-handed Padres) and Mike Soroka (Braves) against all AL players.

With 30 homers at the break, Alonso is about to challenge Aaron Judge's rookie record of 52 points, and former Florida Gator has demonstrated his unparalleled power by winning Monday night's Home Run Derby. . Alonso is also the fourth rookie of the expansion era to qualify for the batting title and to display an OPS + of 166 or more. The other three judges, José Abreu and Trout, all won the title of rookie of the year. Alonso has not only been productive, but is also fun to watch on the field and seductive, which probably should not count, but does it in practice. If he wins, no one will complain.

However, this race is much closer to what would indicate a quick reading of Alonso's historical resume. Tatís missed the whole month of May with a tense thigh, which prevented him from being on the list of qualified hitter, but when he was in training, he displayed exactly the same OPS +, 166, as Alonso . And while Alonso is a first-base player who was built as Babe Ruth in 1921 and who functions as Babe Ruth in 1941, Tatis is a short defense stop that has stolen 13 bases in 16 attempts.

With an equivalent offensive production during half a season, playing 34 times more is a bigger problem than playing a tougher position, and the three WARs agree. But while Alonso is the most valuable rookie player, Tatís is on a win in all three rankings, although he has played only 55 games against 89 for Alonso. At the moment, Tatis has only played 62% more games than Alonso, which makes a big difference. But if both players stay in training almost every day until the end of the season, Tatis will eventually have played 75 or 80% of Alonso games. If he continues to strike like that, Tatis could easily compensate in quality what he lacks in quantity.

AL Manager of the Year: Rocco Baldelli, Minnesota Twins

Manager of the Year tends to be a reward for the team that succeeds best based on pre-season expectations, which no one has done better than the Baldelli's Twins. But more than that, the Minnesota rookie skipper – the first millennium to lead in the MLB – represents a marked departure from his predecessor, Paul Molitor. Baldelli has been a relay of the Minnesota office at the clubhouse and has helped turn one of the most uncompromising baseball clubs into a modern organization.

This year, Martín Pérez, Jake Odorizzi, Byron Buxton, Jonathan Schoop and Miguel Sanó have all changed careers. Although it is impossible to know how much it should be worth to Baldelli or his coach Wes Johnson, the Twins together have the kind of season that usually ends with the manager 's award of the year.

NL Manager of the Year: Dave Roberts, Los Angeles Dodgers

Manager of the year being a reward for the presumed winners, it would be unusual for the skipper of the two defending championship titles to win it, especially since Roberts won it in 2016 and finished second. 'Next year. Turning a losing team into a winning team is the most obvious way for a manager to stand out. All that Roberts has done is to take the helm of the best National League lineup and not mess anything up.

In the end, in this year's National League, it's a bigger feat than one might think. Roberts' Dodgers dramas contrast with the disappointing Brewers and Cardinals, the discomfort surrounding the Phillies and the Cubs and the total collapse of the Mets society. The next best coach this year is probably Brian Snitker of Atlanta, who won the award last year for winning a division title as a sophomore skipper; any argument against Roberts based on novelty would also apply to Snitker. In addition, Roberts is far from being a silent guardian; He is an adept tactician and is skilled at navigating one of the biggest sporting media circuses. Keeping everyone happy in a team of stars in a very stressful market is not easy, and Roberts has always done this job well.