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Dr Anthony Fauci had a terrible prediction this week on the rising second wave of the coronavirus pandemic.
“December, January and early February are going to be terribly painful months,” Fauci, the nation’s leading infectious disease specialist, told The New York Times.
New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy had an equally grim opinion, even amid news that several vaccines appear to be working and may be ready for distribution soon.
“It’s going to get ugly for the next two or three months,” Murphy said at a virtual press conference Thursday. “The developments in vaccines are real. This is the good news. The bad news is they won’t be here tomorrow.
So what does this mean for the Garden State?
NJ Advance Media spoke to experts about what New Jersey residents can expect from Wave 2, especially when the holidays arrive – and what it means for the economy.
SECOND WAVE
New Jersey, a densely populated state of 9 million people, was one of the earliest epicenter of the pandemic, but has seen its numbers drop and stabilize over the summer. New cases, however, have risen sharply in recent weeks. The state’s latest seven-day average for new positive tests is 3,892, up 278% from a month ago and above the virus’s first wave in the spring.
It is difficult to compare the initial outbreak to the second wave as the state was performing far fewer tests in March and April. So far, daily deaths and hospitalizations are still well below their April peak, when there were more than 8,000 patients and authorities announced hundreds of deaths a day.
But the latest numbers are all heading in the wrong direction.
CORONAVIRUS RESOURCES: Live map tracking | Bulletin | Home page
Hospitalizations have more than tripled in the past month to 2505 on Thursday night, and the state’s 71 acute care hospitals are currently two-thirds full, according to the New Jersey Hospital Association. Daily deaths, the rate of positivity and the rate of transmission have all increased.
“It’s possible we’re getting to a point that looks a lot like the start of the pandemic,” said Perry Halkitis, dean of the Rutgers School of Public Health. “The patterns are starting to line up with the beginning, which is unsettling.”
SECOND TIP WAVE
The magnitude of the second wave depends largely on human behavior, which can be difficult to predict, officials and experts say.
New Jersey could see the next peak at the end of the year – just around Christmas – and with numbers that don’t come close to what we saw in the spring, Health Commissioner Judith Persichilli said this week. . But that’s only if enough residents comply with safety guidelines and restrictions, such as wearing masks and social distancing.
Otherwise, Persichilli said, this wave could be worse.
Murphy said models show there could be between 8,000 and 10,000 cases and more than 100 deaths per day if people maintain their “current behavior.”
The governor blamed the increases on “pandemic fatigue” and people “are losing their hair” in their homes and other private places as more activity moves indoors due to the colder weather.
“We implore people not to let their guard down, to stay strong,” Murphy told CNBC on Thursday. “This virus is dying so that we let our guard down.”
Dr Judtih Lightfoot, chief of infectious diseases at Rowan University’s School of Osteopathic Medicine, said the peak could come sooner given how quickly the state’s numbers have multiplied.
“I feel like things are going to be worse this time around, although I try to be optimistic,” Lightfoot said of Wave 2.
“We don’t want to repeat what happened,” she added. “We have enough education. The people of New Jersey know what to do.
A trend that officials say could help, officials say, is that more young people are hospitalized, which will lead to shorter stays, and hospitals have improved a lot in dealing with the virus.
Yet hospitals can become “quickly overloaded” and struggle to maintain “a large number of healthcare workers who play a fundamental role in this fight,” said Corey Basch, director of the university’s public health department. William Paterson.
Stephanie Silvera, epidemiologist and professor of public health at Montclair State University, said people “must be very concerned about this.”
“We don’t want a situation where people are panicking,” Silvera said. “But we can’t let people say it’s okay.”
WHAT ABOUT THE ECONOMY?
The pandemic and its restrictions have already wreaked havoc on the economy. Michele Siekerka, president of the New Jersey Business & Industry Association, said 28% of businesses in the state had closed by the end of October and that others were “just lucky if they could earn enough money. money to cover their expenses ”.
In addition, thousands of residents are still unemployed and struggling to make ends meet. Some are at risk of deportation in the New Year.
The situation is likely to worsen if the restrictions are there to last a while, let alone if more restrictions are on the way. That’s why businesses are seeking more help from federal and state governments – although federal lawmakers in Washington remain deadlocked on a new stimulus package.
If more businesses close, “everything turns on a spiral,” said Eileen Kean, state director of the National Federation of Independent Business.
“Unemployment is increasing and income going to the state is decreasing,” Kean said. “It’s a terrible, terrible situation.”
Tom Bracken, president of the New Jersey Chamber of Commerce, warned that even after the vaccines arrive, it will be a long economic recovery.
“It’s pretty dark,” Bracken said. “Once a business closes, it is not that easy to be able to start over.
FEAR OF HOLIDAYS
The holiday season is of particular concern as people travel and mingle with others outside of their bubble. Canada, which celebrates Thanksgiving a month before the United States, saw cases increase two weeks after the holiday.
“I think this is the day that could cost us months to come,” Rutgers dean Halkitis said of Thanksgiving.
The federal Centers for Disease Control calls on Americans to stay home for the holidays. Murphy asks New Jersey residents to celebrate only with their immediate family.
The same should also apply to the December holidays, experts say.
MORE RESTRICTIONS?
Murphy has taken some new steps to curb the spread. He ordered New Jersey’s indoor bars and restaurants to close daily at 10 p.m. and canceled interstate indoor sports up to the high school level. Indoor gatherings are now limited to 10 people, down from 25, and outdoor gatherings will be limited to 150, down from 500 as of Monday.
So far, the governor has stopped short of ordering the entire state to stay home and extensive business closures he made in March. But he didn’t rule it out.
“We will shut down if we believe that doing so will directly impact transmission,” Murphy told MSNBC Thursday. “We are constantly reviewing all of our options.”
Silvera, the Montclair state professor, said it was likely necessary to end “high risk activities” where people congregate indoors. She wouldn’t be shocked if the indoor dining hall closes and all schools return to fully virtual learning.
“These are areas where people congregate,” Silvera said.
Murphy has so far resisted orders to close schools statewide, saying school transmission numbers were better than expected.
“The experience at school in New Jersey has been so good so far,” he said Thursday.
VACCINE PROSPECTS
On a positive note, news about coronavirus vaccines has improved in recent weeks. Pfizer announced on Friday that it is seeking emergency use authorization from the Federal Food & Drug Administration for its vaccine. And, if approved, Murphy said New Jersey expects to receive its first shipment of about 130,000 doses “around Christmas, and more will follow.”
Moderna is expected to follow suit with its own vaccine soon after, said Persichilli, the state’s health commissioner. There are expected to be 460,000 doses of the vaccine statewide by early January, she said on Friday.
In the first of a three-phase deployment, initial doses are expected for healthcare workers, people 65 years of age and older, those with pre-existing health issues, people who live in group environments such that prisons and hospitals do not practice social distancing.
There should be “sufficient supply” for the general population to get vaccinated by April or May, Persichilli said.
The ultimate goal is for 70% of New Jersey’s adult population to be vaccinated. This means that approximately 81,000 residents should be vaccinated every day for five days a week.
“The news is really, really good on the development side,” Murphy said on Friday. “The distribution is quite complicated. … We need to make sure all the oars row together.
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NJ Advance Media Staff Editors Karin Price Mueller and Jonathan D. Salant contributed to this report.
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Brent Johnson can be reached at [email protected].
Sophie Nieto-Munoz can be reached at [email protected]. Follow her on @snietomunoz.
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