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The ATP Finals invite the top eight players on the tour each year, but this exclusive club actually has a much more limited seating capacity. Barring injuries, Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic, known as the Big Three, with Andy Murray have generally occupied half of the places.
But in recent years, a group of young players, who could be called the next four, have narrowed down the choices even further. Dominic Thiem heading to his fifth ATP final; Alexander Zverev, the 2018 champion, will play for the fourth consecutive year; and defending champion Stefanos Tsitsipas is back for his second year in a row, as is Daniil Medvedev.
The question is no longer whether these players will become ATP final matches throughout this decade, but whether they are ready, after Thiem’s triumph at the US Open this year. , to take over from the players who have long been at the top.
The response, according to tennis experts, was mixed. Expect them to win majors, but Federer, and especially Nadal and Djokovic, will win even more. And as the Big Three finally pass away, a new generation might be ready to challenge Thiem and his company.
“The numbers speak for themselves,” said Patrick McEnroe, ESPN analyst. “These four solidified as the next level.
“They’re different from the guys who knocked on the door but weren’t Grand Slam semi-finals and ATP finals players like Milos Raonic or Kei Nishikori.”
Yet, like their predecessors, they remain in the shadow of Federer, Nadal and Djokovic.
“The Big Three are still playing at a higher level,” said Tim Henman, a BBC analyst, but the younger players “may well be sneaking up a few slams in the next three or four years.”
Paul Annacone, a Tennis Channel analyst, went further, predicting that a younger squad member would win at least one Grand Slam in 2021.
Henman and McEnroe said the older and more accomplished Thiem was slightly ahead of the rest. In the ultimate measuring stick, Thiem is certainly ahead of the others, having beaten Federer three times in a row, Djokovic four of the last six and Nadal three of the last six. The other three combined for a 3-13 record against Nadal.
However, Zverev upset Nadal at the Paris Masters this month before losing to Medvedev in the final, a glimpse of how the game’s balance of power could start to shift.
Martina Navratilova, Tennis Channel analyst and winner of 18 Grand Slam tournaments, said that if the next four groups of young players are “a cut above the rest” it does not mean that they will be superstars.
For her, it’s not just about winning Grand Slam tournaments, it’s about the quality of play.
“The jury is still out,” she said. “You don’t say, ‘Here’s the special.’ With Roger and Rafa, I knew that just the first time I saw them play. In order for these guys to be good at the sport they need to reach this level.
McEnroe said their careers could resemble that of Grand Slam winners like Lleyton Hewitt, Andy Roddick and Stan Wawrinka, who have never crossed the threshold all time.
Still, Ivan Lendl is a source of inspiration. Until 1984, Lendl, then double winner of the end-of-year tournament (then of the Grand Prix Masters), had the reputation of choking on the Grand Slam. He had won only one and had lost six both in the semi-finals or in the finals against Jimmy Connors, John McEnroe and Bjorn Borg. But they were made in 1985, and Lendl captured five of the next nine Grand Slam tournaments, dominating the tour for five years.
The problem young players face, said Henman, is that “they have to be patient, but also beware of young players following them.”
He and the other pundits have said Denis Shapavalov, Félix Auger-Aliassime, Andrey Rublev (set to make his ATP final debut) and Jannik Sinner have the potential to challenge today’s young stars more late in the decade. Taylor Fritz, Ugo Humbert and Alex de Minaur are also worth mentioning.
Henman said Sinner was most likely destined for greatness.
“He’s going to be the one to break through,” Henman said. “He has the game and the attitude.”
If all eight players take turns at the top, the ATP Tour would look like the women’s circuit, in which 11 women have won the last 14 Grand Slam tournaments.
“The more the merrier, but you need the superstars, the ones with name recognition, different personalities and different play styles,” said Navratilova, whose rivalry with Chris Evert sparked interest in football. feminine.
Annacone said the men’s tour was ruined.
“We love our legends,” he said, adding that developing new legends takes time. “The rivalries take a while to build, but if Zverev and Thiem play some five more players in the final they will become a major draw.
In the short term, McEnroe said, the sport is better off if the Big Three win more Grand Slam tournaments, but give up a few to the next generation, giving them a chance to develop those rivalries. But in the long run, he said, “what can be better for tennis is for the younger generation – Shapavalov, Auger-Aliassime, Sinner – to stand up and take control of the game.”
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