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There is a common evil that rages every year, every week, every game. It is a disease that spreads easily and that, without proper treatment, can infect even the most determined.
This mental virus is called "recency bias". It is easy to fall into the trap of thinking that everything that has happened in the most recent game will be carried over to the next.
Let's go back to week 1. We can not say that dolphins do what we call "football", so we'll say: the last time we saw dolphins engaged in football activities, they were burned by Lamar. Jackson for five touchdowns and 324 yards in just 20 pass attempts. The last time we saw the Patriots, Tom Brady manhandled the Steelers for three touchdowns and 341 yards.
Brady will naturally add another day to the Hall of Fame of his resume by illuminating the dolphins. It's obvious, right? Well, the NFL has a way of making ridiculous what seems obvious at kickoff late afternoon. Madman suspects that the Patriots-Dolphins match could make one of these trips ridiculous. Follow us here:
Last week, the Ravens were in ruthless mode: they went on to throw huge ones, running a fake kick with a 35-3 lead, which gave Jackson, a native of South Florida, the chance to win. opportunity to return to the monster. It is unlikely that the Pats will openly increase the score in the same way, especially against a division opponent.
We also know that the Pats have struggled in Miami in recent years, having lost five of their last six games. So once the Pats have taken the lead, we think they'll sit on the ball and shorten the game, leaving the Dolphins with fewer chances to rally miraculously. To do this, New England will lead the ball.
Which brings us our favorite fantasy player in this game: Sony Michel. Yes, we know, we know. He had only 14 yards in 15 races last week. In fact, he also had a 5-yard run, meaning he had only 9 yards on the other 14 carries. Terrible.
But remember, the evidence will become ridiculous, allowing ridicule to become apparent. Lost in Jackson's blastin last week is the fact that the Dolphins dropped 265 yards on 46 runs (5.7 yards average) and two touchdowns. So, it's not as if the only way to exploit this defense was through the air.
Michel had an average of 4.5 per race during his rookie season last year. Let's say he has 20 races – he has had at least as much in both games against the Dolphins last season. He only needs 5 yards per run to hit 100 yards. If Bill Belichick complies with what we call his game plan Jonas Gray Day, his figure is about 50% higher with 30 games. Add a TD or two and you'll have a fantastic day of Michel's monster.
It must sound ridiculous now, but it will be obvious Sunday afternoon.
Big weeks
Ben Roethlisberger QB, Steelers vs. Seahawks (FanDuel $ 7,600 / DraftKings $ 5,800)
Big Ben comes home after an embarrassing first match. His careers at home / on the road are rare. The Seahawks gave more than 400 yards to Andy Dalton last week at home.
Baker Mayfield QB, Browns, at Jets (7,500 FD / 6,000 DKD)
Wait for a rebound performance against an unproven secondary Jets under Monday night lights. Should benefit from Odell Beckham Jr. performing in his former home.
Austin Ekeler RB, chargers, at Lions (7,500 FD / 6,100 DKD)
We worry about how it will hold up with 20 keys per game, but if it's healthy, use it in all formats. The Lions gave a big day to David Johnson of Arizona last week.
Bennie Fowler WR, Giants, against bills (USD 4,900 / DKK 3,300)
In the process of elimination. Sterling Shepard is absent and some recipients must reach targets. They will not all go to Evan Engram and Saquon Barkley.
Small weaknesses
Aaron Jones RB, Packers vs. Vikings (6,400 FD / 5,400 DKD)
Had a tough first game against a stiff defense Bears. Although we still love it in the long run, the Vikings are not going to make it easy for us this week.
Danny Amendola WR, Lions, vs Chargers (5,400 FD / 3,900 DKD)
Made a huge Lions debut last week (7-in-104, and 13 targets, with a touchdown). But this week, he draws a difficult match with the corner of Charmond Desmond King II.
Antonio Brown WR, Patriots, Dolphins (7,800 FD / 7,000 DKD)
The NFL will not oppose it this week, but you should not use it. This will be his first match in a new offense, with limited preparation time and maximum distractions. Maybe next week. We'll see.
Jamison Crowder WR, Jets, vs. Browns ($ 6,200 FD / DKD 4,700)
With Sam Darnold dismissed from mono, we do not trust Trevor Siemian to spice Crowder with 17 targets as he did last week.
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