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Jeff Gorman
Stanford claimed their first win of the season last week over rival Cal, dramatically blocking a PAT attempt. Sitting at 1-2, they enter Husky Stadium with a shattered, struggling defense and an offense still trying to find its rhythm.
When Washington gets the ball, John Donovan will likely try to play the running game against a defense giving up 229 yards per game rushing. Stanford has a better defensive line than you’d expect for those numbers, but has been devastated by the linebacker’s injuries. LB Curtis Robinson is the one to watch, he is the defense chief. However, their best day was giving Colorado 177 yards … so not great. In high school, they like CB Kyu Blue Kelly locking on one side, but struggled to replace potential first round Paulson Adebo on the other, who retired. Yet secondary is the relative strength of the defense.
Stanford is playing a very multiple front seven with almost WSU-like changes and pre-snap moves and stunts for their DL. It will be up to Dylan Morris and Luke Wattenburg to get into the right protections and not be cheated as they were sometimes against Utah last week. Morris nearly had a pick-6 in the first half when Utah disguised a blanket and confused him. The Huskies should try to get creative with the running game and attack linebackers with short and intermediate passes.
Offensively, Stanford has a little more identity passing the ball more than any other Pac-12 team, but is hardly dominant. The only thing you can count on with this attack, at least so far, is that they don’t give the ball to the other team, with only one total turnover all season. They still struggle to run the ball, but RB Austin Jones is more than capable of getting some tough yards between tackles. However, where he could be injured, the Huskies flee out of the backfield to catch passes when linebackers are distracted. Quarterback Davis Mills has been decent this year, doing a good job taking care of the football and avoiding mistakes, but not generating a lot of big plays. The WR trio of Michael Wilson, Simi Fehoko and Conor Wedington are athletic and more than capable of beating teams in depth, although I’m not sure they will test the Husky secondary too much.
If Stanford succeeds, it will be because they neutralize Zion Tupuola-Fetui’s pass rush with quick passes, and attack the young players in the linebacker corps. QB Davis Mills is a rhythm and timing thrower and can really get into a groove if things go right. Sav’ell Smalls and Ryan Bowman (if he plays) will need to generate a pass rush as they will do anything to keep ZTF out of the backfield. I think it will be an extremely close game with Stanford playing conservative with a position on the field and frustrating the Huskies with their patience. They regularly threw 4th tries this year when they were in opponent’s territory which helped them stay in games. Washington’s offensive could have a long way to go.
Washington withdraws it.
Washington – 24, Stanford – 20
Andrew Berg
Over the past decade it felt like Stanford was a thorn alongside UW no matter how hard the Huskies played in the game. While that sentiment has generally been rooted in reality, this year’s Stanford team retains little of the legacy that has made the Cardinal such a tough opponent. Stanford no longer has the strength in the trenches to establish a substantial advantage on both sides of the ball. The offense no longer revolves around large sets with multiple tight ends and a power stroke. More importantly, they didn’t perform with the precision expected of a David Shaw team.
The most standout aspect of this Stanford team is the poor running defense. For a team known to be tall, tough and intelligent, giving up 229 yards per game on the field clearly undermines its reputation. The Utah game painstakingly demonstrated that John Donovan will stick to the RTDB offense regardless of the success rate or the circumstances of the game. That stubbornness should be rewarded in this game, and the inside offensive line will face a less prodigious challenge. The Cardinal narrowly escaped with a (largely undeserved) victory at Berkeley last week due to Cal’s turnovers. Dylan Morris will need to take better care of the ball after throwing his first three career interceptions against Utah. If the running game works as the stats indicate, it won’t have the same pressure to create an offense on its own.
Even Stanford’s offensive approach seems foreign to the team’s established standard. Davis Mills is a qualified QB and Conor Wedington and Simi Fehoko bring unique talents to the passing game. Even so, it’s strange to see a Cardinal team averaging twice as many passing yards as rushing yards. They will still be lined up in pro-style sets and will try to run the ball with Austin Jones and Nathaniel Peat. The running offense hasn’t been effective or explosive so far, but we’ve seen that the Huskies’ defense tends to bring out the best in opposing rushers (to put it mildly). UW also has the best passing defense the Cardinal will see all year, so taking the ball out of Mills’ hands might make sense, even if it comes at the expense of having it in Wedington, Fehoko and Michael Wilson. Shaw has seen the gang and he will know that the offense will be best served by returning to its roots.
The relative strengths of the teams indicate that this one will be a slow-motion game where both teams run the clock and possessions are at a premium. It is more difficult to cover a double digit spread when the game as a whole is under scoring. It would be great to see the Huskies come out more aggressive, establish a lead and force Stanford to put some air in the ball. If they do, I can see a Husky win of two or more touchdowns. I think the opportunity to dig in and beat will be too difficult for Donovan and the game will stay closer than we would like.
Washington – 30, Stanford – 21
Max Vrooman
On paper, this seems like a pretty straightforward victory for the Huskies. I mean, Washington is favored in double digits. But history tells us that outside of the 44-6 demolition that catapulted UW to a college football playoff spot, there weren’t many double-digit wins from Dawg.
Part of that has been Stanford’s ability to attack the Husky defense in the most vulnerable areas. Washington’s nickel base defense is especially sensitive to a team dedicated to spinning the ball out of powerful sets and giant humans lined up in the slot against our less than 6-foot nickel corner. The cardinal recently had both the staff and the patience to punish Washington for its nickel commitment with its parade of giant targets at TE. Last year Stanford was 5/8 for 98 yards targeting Elijah Molden, which was his most surrendered yards all season. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Davis Mills throws a few 6’4 Simi Fehoko jump balls when isolated against Molden and has more success than you might think.
It’s certainly not Stanford’s defense of recent seasons, but Utah may have confused Dylan Morris on several occasions last week to induce bad decisions. With more gang on Morris than defensive coordinators can examine, we may be in the phase where the onus falls on Morris to counter the strategies opponents launch specifically to confuse him. He generally responded well in the second half against Utah, but I’m still not convinced he’ll be able to carry the team reliably if Stanford sticks an 8 in the box and stops the running game in Washington.
Hope I am wrong, but I can easily imagine a game where Washington moves the ball better than Stanford overall, but the team repeatedly settled for short field goals early and a roll. or gaffe special teams give Stanford a short pitch for the end of the game. – TD winner. The current all-time streak is 43 points apiece and I see the Cardinal taking the lead.
Washington – 20, Stanford – 21
FINAL TALLY
Directly: Washington- 2, Stanford- 1
Against the gap (-11.5): Washington- 0, Stanford- 3
Average score: Washington – 24.3, Stanford – 20.7
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