The prices of this weekend are not like the others

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If you read this Sunday, the trade war between the United States and China has just intensified. In one night, 15% of US tariffs on Chinese products reached the estimated value of $ 110 billion, as were Beijing retaliatory tariffs of about $ 75 billion worth of US products.

The world has already gone through two phases of rising US tariffs and retaliation on the part of China. But the prices this weekend, as well as another cycle postponed to Dec. 15, are different from previous ones, according to Aditya Bhave, a world economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

"In previous series of tariffs, there was clearly an attempt to stay away from consumer goods," said Bhave. "Now they are running out of mainstream goods."

Popular shopping items such as laptops, shoes and toys are targeted. This could hurt consumer confidence at a sensitive time for the US economy, as spending outweighs weakness in the manufacturing sector.

JPMorgan Chase predicted that US tariffs on China already cost the average US household $ 600 a year. This will increase to $ 1,000 after the September and December rates come into effect, according to the bank.

The December tranche is particularly risky, notes Bhave. Unlike previous cycles, there are few alternative countries from which US companies can import the products in question. China accounts for over 80% of US imports of these products.

What this means: companies will not be able to protect their customers by switching providers. Instead, they will likely have to pass on the extra costs.

Look also: These tariffs will also hit China hard, said Bhave. "They have a very great ability to bear the pain, but that does not mean that they do not suffer," he said. Monitor the manufacturing sector, private investment and consumer confidence, as well as any announcement of new public spending.

Brexit is about to become even more messy

British lawmakers are returning from their summer holidays, which means the fight against Brexit is about to intensify. Watch for the volatility of the upcoming pound.

Brexit is back and investors should buckle up

Prime Minister Boris Johnson shocked last week by asking the queen to suspend parliament for about five weeks – the longest suspension in decades – ahead of the October 31 Brexit deadline .

Now there are only a few days left for the legislature to have the suspension begin to introduce legislation banning the European Union from going out of order without an agreement to protect trade. They will try to do it this week.

A legal challenge to Johnson's maneuver will also advance this week in Scotland. A former British prime minister joined a separate action to stop the move.

Meanwhile, Brexit negotiators continue discussions with their European counterparts. Downing Street announced that they would meet at least twice a week in September.

Remember: a messy Brexit poses great risks to the UK economy and its trading partners. Germany, on the brink of recession, is following developments closely.

The US economy checks the reality in the third quarter

Now, a telegram from my CNN Business colleague, Anneken Tappe, in New York, at a big week of US economic indicators:

"Concerns about the future of the US economy resurfaced in August, as the reversal of the Treasury yield curve triggered a recession warning.

GDP growth in the second quarter was revised down from 2.1% last week to 2%. And while US consumption still looks strong against the deteriorating manufacturing sector, Friday's University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index recorded its largest monthly drop since December 2012, thanks to the war commercial.

If consumers re-establish their spending through Washington's business tactics, the economy could suffer seriously.

The economic data for the coming week should give a more accurate picture of the situation in the third quarter. The ISM manufacturing index of the month of August is expected Tuesday. But the biggest calendar item is Friday's jobs report.

According to consensus estimates, the non-farm payroll would be 159,000, slightly lower than July but still high. The unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 3.7%. "

following

On Monday: The Chinese manufacturing PMI of Caixin

Tuesday: US ISM Manufacturing Index; The British Parliament returns

Wednesday: Trade balance of the United States; Australia T2 GDP; Interest Rate Decision of Canada; American Eagle and Slack Gains

Thursday: US ISM non-manufacturing index; CrowdStrike and Lululemon benefit

Friday: Report on US employment in August

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