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"There is not a reason or a specific time for you to say who motivated his rise," said Michael Ceraso, who recently led the mayoral campaign of Pete Buttigieg's mayor, South Bend, in New York. Hampshire. "Warren has just the best New Hampshire campaign; they are everywhere. They look like an excellent baseball team: good pitch, good strikes, good setup and very few mistakes. And now they are getting gains. "
The dynamics of the Cambridge Democrat in New Hampshire will serve as a backdrop to what could be a key debate on Thursday night, when Warren will appear for the first time on the same board as all leading candidates, including Sanders and the # 1. Former vice president Joe Biden. .
Biden, for his part, has unveiled several lines of attack against Warren Tuesday – but not Sanders – indicating his status as a leading rider.
The Sanders campaign is giving up nothing. While the candidates themselves took care not to attack publicly, their campaigns ventured among party loyalists, from Hanover to Hampton.
Warren personally called Carlos Cardona, president of the local Democratic Party of Laconia, to court the former 30-year-old state representative in support of his campaign.
Sanders, however, outshot his Massachusetts rival. The Democrat from Vermont came to Cardona's house for dinner.
Cardona approved Sanders a few days ago, but he had a window on the intensity of the fight.
"Warren's campaign has been in constant contact," Cardona said. "The whole process was crazy."
Kathleen Kelley, an activist for Randolph, N.H., a former Senate nominee, chose between Buttigieg, entrepreneur Andrew Yang, Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey and Warren.
As Kelly was at the bedside of her dying mother, she received a call from Warren.
Booker is shown at home with her mother for dinner.
After weighing the options, she decided to support Warren earlier this year.
"At first I thought she was this professor at Harvard Law School, but then I could see her and learn more," Kelly said. "You see that she's really a Midwesterner and that her life has really been tied to me."
Warren's campaign did not speak to the record of this story.
In an interview with The Globe this weekend, Sanders refused to criticize Warren and also asked if he thought New Hampshire would be a clash between him and Warren.
"I'm not going to speculate," said Sanders. "Joe is a strong candidate. Elizabeth is a strong candidate. You never know what will happen in five months. "
Biden, the national favorite, is significantly less involved in the field battles led by the campaigns of Warren and Sanders.
Biden spent about half the time campaigning in New Hampshire, like Warren and Sanders, according to NECN's schedule tracking program.
And polling trends suggest that voters are looking more and more elsewhere.
During the summer in New Hampshire, Biden lost strength, while Warren caught up and Sanders held on. This has consolidated a group of three leading Democrats.
Trends suggest that while the fight may eventually be a Warren-Sanders battle, it is not yet a zero-sum fight between the Senate's two septuagenarians.
Surveys show that voters have recently laid the foundation for Warren's growth.
For example, in June's CBS / YouGov poll in New Hampshire, Warren had only 17%, third and three other candidates.
But Sunday's CBS / YouGov poll of 526 New Hampshire Democratic primary voters said Warren was 27 percent, Biden 26 percent and Sanders 25 percent – a statistical tie. Warren's 10% gain did not come from Sanders, who also won in the poll. Instead, it seems that she has benefited from the fall of Biden, Buttigieg, Booker and his former representative, Beto O'Rourke, of Texas.
For the watchful observers of the presidential horse race, this is not a surprise. For months, national and first-nation surveys revealed that Warren was the second choice of survey respondents. This means that if a favorite candidate hesitates, the voter could move on to Warren afterwards.
"While the estate continues to winnowing and consolidating around three people in the leading group, the rider is Warren," said David Paleologos, director of the University of Suffolk's Center for Policy Research, who conducted surveys in Iowa and New Hampshire in the United Kingdom. last month. "The more people give up or disappear, the polls indicate that Warren will benefit disproportionately."
James Pindell can be contacted at [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @jamespindell
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