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On Sunday, injuries to the NFL's most valuable position – that of two of the most prolific passers-by in history – dramatically changed the landscape of the season.
Sean Payton is about to coach only the second game of his NFL career without a healthy Drew Brees, absent for six to eight weeks with a right thumb injury that will require surgery. With Brees at the helm, Payton's record is 119-72, and the pair has the second-highest number of wins of any QB-Coach combo in NFL history. Payton's quarterback should be Teddy Bridgewater, who started a game in the NFL that counted for the 2015 season.
In Pittsburgh, the situation is even worse: Ben Roethlisberger will undergo an end-of-season elbow surgery. Steelers coach Mike Tomlin has a score of 115-60-1 with Roethlisberger, making it the fourth-most winning streak of any combined head coach. Tomlin had to guide his team through the missed time of Big Ben, 10-8 in the matches without Roethlisberger. But these former replacements included veterans Charlie Batch, Byron Leftwich and Michael Vick. Mason Rudolph, the current replacement, a third-round pick in the NFL draft in 2018, has never started a game in the NFL.
What can we expect from each team with its current backup QB? According to the prediction model of FiveThirtyEight, the Saints still have a chance to play the playoffs, according to the FiveThirtyEight NFL prediction model. But the Steelers chances of qualifying for the playoffs are now virtually nil, falling to just 8%.
Even with Roethlisberger, the Steelers had started the season so badly that, had it not been injured, they would still have been projected for only 7.54 wins, a record of about 8-8 – probably again below the post-season. With Rudolph in the center, the Steelers' outlook drops by 2.47 expected wins. Rudolph has not yet started the game, the model projects his performance only on the place where it was written (the 3rd round) – which could be an estimate too bearish. But overall, Rudolph should only account for 36.6% of Roethlisberger's Elo level, a slippery average of recent performances that includes both passes and the race.
On paper, the Saints are doing much better with their replacement at Bridgewater, which is expected to reach 56.5% of Brees' level. With Brees starting each remaining match, the Saints would have been Elo's seventh strongest league team, with a total of 9.62 expected wins. With Bridgewater, the Saints fall to 21st place and reduce their total projected wins to 8.93 for the full season.
But Bridgewater's performance is almost impossible to project as he's not the same player after getting over the "horribly grotesque" injury that he suffered in 2016. Although the size of the sample is small – only 53 passes so far – Bridgewater's return as Saint was mediocre summer: he scored almost 2 yards less per pass attempt than as a Viking and was less successful in both by smuggler rankings and ESPN QBR.
The Saints could turn to favorite Sean Payton, the quarterback and the Swiss army knife Taysom Hill, who receives no Elo points due to the absence of the NFL's departure and its pristine status. Payton, however, sees the next Steve Young. Hill, 29, is in his third season in Payton's squad, but Young did not start his Hall of Fame career as the 49ers' first quarterback before the age of 30. So, if it's going to happen to Hill, why not now?
For the Steelers, although Roethlisberger says he returns from this injury to complete his contract, there is no guarantee. Strangely, the playing career of Steelers' last big quarterback, Terry Bradshaw, ended in an almost identical injury to the last game of the 1983 season. And Bradshaw also said that he would come back after his surgery, but he never did it. He was 35 years old. Roethlisberger is 37 years old.
But what if the Steelers are able to get a veteran quarter for almost nothing in an exchange? And if this player is a double Super Bowl champion, like Roethlisberger? The Giants are finally turning the page of the Eli Manning era, and it would be much less embarrassing to entrust the rookie team to Daniel Jones with Manning rather than holding a notebook. Elo projects Manning with twice the value of Rudolph this year. He would be AFC North's third best quarterback today for Elo, ahead of Andy Dalton.
It seems, however, that the Steelers do not have the leeway to trade against Manning or even a modestly paid QB veteran. Pittsburgh sent a first-round pick in Miami on Monday for cornerback Minkah Fitzpatrick. It does not seem that the Steelers intend to tank. They are probably just stuck in the uncertainty of a QB prospect who has not started a game yet.
Neil Paine contributed to the research.
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