The Six Pack: Alabama v Ole Miss, Arkansas v Georgia top college football picks in week 5

While I never consider a winning, profitable start to the season to be a negative, I come to week 5 of the college football season bored with my performance over the past two weeks. Yes, I might be 14-10 this season, but I’m only 6-6 for the past two weeks, and I’m not here to juice your book.

Mediocrity ends this week. After a somewhat lackluster slate in Week 4 when it comes to marquee clashes, this week brings two top 10 battles and four games between ranked teams overall. There’s a lot of value on the board, and some of it is in the bigger games, so let’s talk about the winners.

Lock Pod: The Cover 3 team breaks down the Week 5 slate and gives picks for Ole Miss-Alabama, Arkansas-Georgia, Cincinnati-Notre Dame, and other big-name games. And be sure to subscribe to the Cover 3 podcast for top-notch news and analysis.

As always, lines and odds are via Caesars Sportsbook.

Games of the week

# 8 Arkansas to # 2 Georgia: Arkansas has been a godsend for punters so far, not just 4-0 on the field but 4-0 ATS. Unfortunately for me, I have been on the losing side of two of those four covers in this column. It changes this week because I am not betting the spread. Frankly, I would lean on Georgia’s side if I had to take sides here. The Bulldogs were the most complete team in the country. Still, I see a lot more value available out of the total.

There are two ways that game could go: either Georgia is heading for an easy win and stifling Arkansas offensive like everyone else, or the Hogs stay close to their defense and limit what Georgia can do offensively. Either way, it should be a low scoring affair since both teams have exceptional defenses. Georgia enter the game nationally for first in defensive success rate, while Arkansas is not too far behind in 16th. Georgia 31, Arkansas 14 | Less than 48.5

No. 12 Ole Miss at No. 1 Alabama: If we think back to last year’s reunion, it seems most people remember Ole Miss scoring 48 points over Alabama at Oxford. And it’s done! Unfortunately, the part that seems to be forgotten is that the Rebels lost another 15 points as Alabama racked up 63 points.

Alabama actually got off to a slow start in this game. He scored on his first possession to tie the game at 7-7, but then groped deep into Ole Miss’s territory on his next possession and kicked on his third. But then the Tide scored touchdowns on each of their last eight possessions.

My concern isn’t the Ole Miss offense – it’s the defense I am not buying yet. The Rebels have improved in this area, but they still rank 60th nationally for defensive success rate against a schedule that hasn’t been filled with incredible attacks. In addition, the Rebels did not return the ball in this game last year and still lost by double digits. I think it will be a different story in Tuscaloosa. Alabama 49, Ole Miss 31 | Alabama -14.5

Lock of the week

Oregon # 3 at Stanford: I made the mistake of trusting Stanford at home against UCLA last week and looked stupid for it. I’m not going to make this mistake again. First off, Oregon should be favored by 12.5 points in this game based on my power ratings, so there’s no way I can pass it up. But you’re not here just for my numbers, so I’ll explain it to you in more detail.

Stanford is soft like Charmin defensively. The Cardinal ranks 118th nationally for defensive success rate and allows 2.39 points per possession, which ranks him 109th. If we take the game against Vanderbilt – one of the worst offenses in the country – that 2.39 points per possession drops to 2.56, which ranks 114th.

Oregon are not only the most talented team, but they’ve been better on both sides of the ball. The Ducks remind me of Ohio State in the Big Ten over the last few years in that they’re right above the rest of their conference right now. Oregon 34, Stanford 21 | Oregon -8

Under of the week

No. 7 Cincinnati at No. 9 Notre Dame: More than anything, I trust these defenses more than offenses. Also, while I’m not betting on the spread, there is something about Cincinnati being favored at South Bend that I find disrespectful to the Irish. Don’t get me wrong, Bearcats are really good. However, it will be the most formidable defense they have seen in 2021 and the most difficult environment they have played in. For this reason, Cincinnati will want to keep things a little more conservative.

As for the Irish, they rank 19th in terms of defensive success rate – Cincinnati are 10th – but offensively they have been inconsistent as they cannot direct the ball. Notre Dame ranks 128th nationally with 2.29 yards per carry and 108th overall in the EPA. I don’t see this group getting it right against a Cincinnati defense that ranks 15th nationally in terms of success rate against the run. I don’t know who wins, but it won’t be a high score. Notre-Dame 24, Cincinnati 21 | Less than 50.5

Weekend

Minnesota to Purdue: We can take advantage of the public perception here. First, Minnesota is emerging from a shocking upheaval against Bowling Green at home. Public opinion of the Gophers is not going to be any lower than it is now. Then there’s Purdue, who played musical chairs at QB with Jack Plummer and Aidan O’Connell. And no offense has been good on a points per practice basis. Minnesota ranks 71st nationally at 2.13, while Purdue is 77th at 2.06. However, what skews this total is that Purdue ranks 8th nationally for defensive success rate while Minnesota ranks 22nd.

But even these numbers lack context on their own. Purdue’s numbers are greatly helped by games against UConn and Illinois. The Boilermakers’ defense was not as effective against Oregon State and Notre Dame. Then there’s Minnesota’s victory over Colorado, who didn’t move the ball against anyone. In their first two games against Ohio State and Miami (OH), the Gophers’ defense was not as clean.

Put it all together, and you’ve got a game with a total a little lower than it should be. This game will have a higher score than the line suggests and I would take it from anything below 52. Purdue 28, Minnesota 24 | Over 47.5

The underdog of the week

Miss South to Rice: I have already been burned by Southern Miss. I took them on the cover against South Alabama to open the season and I sounded like a jerk for it. Well I’m back, and I don’t think I’ll be looking so stupid this time. It’s not the kind of game you’ll be dying to watch, but it’s one we can tap into.

They’re two bad teams, but the difference is that Southern Miss has at least shown some skill in one area. The Golden Eagles rank 81st nationally in offensive success rate, but 18th in defensive success rate. This is important because Rice ranks 108th and 113th respectively in those same categories.

Now it has to be pointed out that Rice has played the more difficult schedule at this point, but it’s still a drastic difference defensively between those two. And that difference is why I don’t trust Rice to cover as a favorite. Honestly, how can you support a team that played so poorly to win, let alone cover? Miss Sud 24, Rice 20 | Miss South +2.5

SportsLine choice of the week

# 14 Michigan in Wisconsin: Whoops ! I ran out of room in The Six Pack, and there’s another bet I’m loving this weekend. If you want to know what it is, you can find it on my SportsLine page.

Games of the week	1-1	6-2
Lock of the week	0-1	2-2
Globally	3-3	14-10

What college football picks can you confidently make in Week 5, and which Top 25 favorite is the toughest? Visit SportsLine to see which teams will win and cover the spread – all from a proven computer model that has grossed nearly $ 3,000 in profits over the past five+ seasons – and find out.