The Six Pack: Alabama vs Auburn, Notre Dame vs North Carolina top college football picks of week 13

It’s Thanksgiving weekend, and it’s one that won’t look like your typical Thanksgiving holiday, as people all over the country are trying to figure out how best to celebrate the holidays given the current circumstances. I know I’m sad that I don’t spend the day with the same people as usual, but I also know that although it stinks I’m grateful to have these people in my life and I’m able to miss their business.

I’m also grateful that I still have some football to watch, even if it’s not as much as we usually see. So if you’re like me and are going to be home this weekend watching football on the couch, I have six games that I love for the weekend. Of course, as has been the case in recent weeks, the map is subject to change! Also, as I have done previously, if any of the following six games are canceled, I will do my best to find a replacement.

Now let’s try to bounce back from The Six Pack’s worst performance in quite some time, when I went 2-4 last week. However, we are still aware of the season. But how about adding a little more to the account this weekend?

Games of the week

No.22 Auburn at No.1 Alabama

Even before Nick Saban’s news broke, my initial instinct upon seeing the line for this game was, “that’s a lot of points for Auburn to catch up in the Iron Bowl!” I mean, we’ve all seen it before. Auburn has a way of making this game a lot more interesting than it should be when you least expect it, but these surprises tend to come when the game is played in Auburn. In Tuscaloosa, not so much. The last time this game was played in Tuscaloosa, Alabama were a 26-point favorite and they beat the Tigers 52-21.

However, 24.5 points is a lot of points in the Iron Bowl! Auburn is 4-3 CEP against Alabama since Gus Malzahn took over, but it’s only 1-2 CEP at Tuscaloosa. So I think it’s best to ignore the spread altogether and go looking for the total because you know what I’ve noticed with this game over the past couple of years? It’s a high score. I just told you about the 52-21 game at Tuscaloosa in 2018, and last year the final score was 48-45. The Alabama defense has taken a step forward in the last few weeks (mostly since halftime against Georgia), but I can’t help but believe that Gus has something in store for this game. He still does. It might not be enough to cover, but it should be enough to help this game pass the total. Alabama 45, Auburn 21 | The choice: over 62.5

No.2 Notre Dame at No 19 North Carolina (Friday)

A lot of the people I work with and whose opinions I respect are on North Carolina in this game. I don’t like to ignore them because even though they’re as stupid as I am, they know what they’re talking about. But no matter what they say, I’m just not convinced. I don’t think North Carolina is that good. If we look at the Tar Heels CV, it includes losses to Florida State and Virginia. His best win is probably NC State – a respectable winner but not exactly the one to boast on the CV. That said, I love watching the Tar Heels play because their games are fun, but a big reason for that is that it’s not good defensively.

The Heels are worth 2.34 points per possession (77th nationally) and have a 53.1% success rate against the race (104th nationally). Now, they are better against the pass since their success rate of 61.3% ranks 19th, but they also allow 12.93 yards per reception (92nd). It tells you it’s booming or broken down, and when it bangs, it really bursts. Notre Dame, meanwhile, is much stronger in defense. So when I watch this game I think the heels are too good offensively not to put points on the board, but how often do they prevent the Irish from doing the same? Probably not often enough. Notre Dame 37, North Carolina 24 | The Pick: Notre Dame -5

Lock of the week

No 13 Iowa State to No 17 Texas (Friday)

The spread in this game is just a point for a reason, and depending on where you shop, either side can be favored. But it should be a close game as they are two similar teams. Fortunately, I can avoid the spread and focus on the total. As long as this total is over 56, I like the less. First of all, while results have been patchy on the scoreboard since Tom Herman’s arrival in Austin, the sub has been a solid game; he left 20-14 in the Texas Big 12 under Herman. On the other side, the state of Iowa and the sub have a passionate relationship. The under is 15-5-1 in the Cyclones’ last 21 games. The sub has also managed to strike in each of the last five meetings between those two, and I like his chances of reaching six in a row this weekend. Texas 27, State of Iowa 24 | The choice: less than 56.5

Sicko game of the week

Penn State Michigan

I told you last week that if Michigan didn’t cover against Rutgers – not just win, but cover – then it was a lost cause. Well Michigan beat Rutgers, but it took an extra three hours to make it and didn’t come close to covering. Now am I supposed to trust the Wolverines as my favorites? No thanks! I don’t care if I bet on a Penn State team without a win here. The point is, records aside, Penn State has outperformed Michigan this season in many areas. Penn State is 0-5 ATS this season, but the two times they’ve failed to cover as an underdog have been against much better teams Ohio State and Iowa. than this Michigan team. I understand if you don’t want anything to do with this game, but you have to trust me on this one. Penn State is the right coin. Penn State 28, Michigan 23 | The choice: Penn State +2

Rock fight of the week

No.8 in Northwest Michigan

For example, do you think Pat Fitzgerald is even interested in winning enough games to cover the spread? I am not convinced that it is. Frankly, I think Fitzgerald is perfectly happy to beat teams 13-3 and call it a day. It’s hard to blame him considering how difficult his offense was this year. The Wildcats are scoring just 1.95 points per possession this season, which ranks 84th nationally. This number doesn’t tell the whole story, however. You see, Northwestern averaged 3.91 points per possession in his first game against Maryland; in four games since, he’s averaged 1.56. Of course, those two numbers are miles ahead of Michigan State’s 1.07 offense scoring by possession (122nd nationally), so, yes, 20 points should be more than enough for them. Wildcats Saturday. Northwestern 23, Michigan 10 | The choice: less than 41.5

Another penny of the week

Kansas State to Baylor

I swear I didn’t plan this week to chase the pennies, they just stuck like sore thumbs everywhere I looked. This is another place where I saw the total and thought it was ambitious. This game is no different from the Northwestern-Michigan State game. Kansas State ranks 96th nationally in points per possession at 1.74, while Baylor ranks 100th at 1.7. The overall figure for the state of Kansas is also misleading. Skylar Thompson has only played in the team’s first three games, and the Wildcats’ offense is averaging 2.63 points per possession in those competitions. In the five games they’ve played without Thompson, they’ve averaged just 1.65 points per possession. Plus, while neither team has exceptional defense, they fared much better on this side of the ball. Best of all, the pennies have collected at a high rate with these two. Five of the last seven meetings have fallen below, and under 18-7-1 in the last 26 games of the Kansas State Big 12. He’s also 13-6-1 in Baylor’s last 20 conference games. Baylor 21, Kansas State 20 | The choice: under 46

SportsLine pick of the week

4th state from Ohio to Illinois

It’s Thanksgiving weekend, so why not make some room for more? I have another game for this weekend’s game between Ohio State and Illinois, but you’ll need to head over to my SportsLine page to find out what it is.

Games of the week	0-2	11-11
Lock of the week	0-1	4-7
Global	2-4	35-31

What college football choices can you confidently make in week 13? Visit SportsLine to see which teams will win and cover the spread – all from a proven computer model that has grossed over $ 3,600 in profit over the past four seasons and up – and find out.