The Six Pack: Notre Dame vs Boston College, Michigan vs Wisconsin top college football picks of week 11

The weekend’s schedule was already light on heavy hitter clashes, and it got even thinner with as many cancellations or postponements as there have been in college football this week. With the Ohio State game against Maryland, as well as Georgia’s game against Missouri both being called off on Wednesday, that means we’re now five games away with a team ranked off the board this week. It made it a bit harder to find our “Games of the Week”, but luckily there were two games left that I had already planned to include in the column.

Now they will just be found higher on the page than expected.

As with everything else, there’s still plenty of value to be discovered, but it’s best to hurry and get there before they’re also canceled.

Odds below provided via William Hill Sportsbook

Games of the week

No 2 Notre Dame at Boston College

This is just a classic place of disappointment. Notre Dame knocked out No.1 Clemson at South Bend last week, marking the first time the Irish have knocked down a No.1 team since the 1993 season. That’s when the Irish beat the state’s No.1 of Florida 31-24. The following week, the Irish lost at home to Boston College 41-39. Now here we are, 27 years later and there is a feeling of déjà vu.

Of course, there is more to this than the classic disappointment. Not only is it one of the biggest games on the Boston College schedule this season, it’s the Red Bandanna Game, which honors the memory of former Boston College lacrosse player Welles Crowther, who perished in the 9/11 attacks after helping to lead up to 18 people. to safety. The Eagles are still excited for this game, and we’re going to see the same kind of effort that helped them play so well against Clemson a few weeks ago. I’m not sure if I’m ready to say Boston College is successful this time around, but I think it will keep this game much closer than the spread suggests. Notre Dame 27, Boston College 21 | Picks: Boston College +13.5

No. 13 Wisconsin, Michigan

Who knows what to expect from either of these teams right now? Michigan is on a two-game losing streak against the wall. A win over Wisconsin could help save the season, while a loss will only make matters worse. On the other side, what do we know about the Wisconsin situation after canceling its last two games due to a COVID outbreak on the roster? Paul Chryst has said Graham Mertz is back and eligible, but is no guarantee to start the game. Moreover, Mertz is far from the only Badger to have missed the time in recent weeks.

I bet Mertz will play, and he will have a day on the pitch against a Michigan defense that has been ripped to shreds the past two weeks. The Wolverines have little to no rush to talk, and that caused their secondary to be split up. Mertz could feast on the Wolverines defense the same way he did in Illinois in Wisconsin’s lone game. Still, I’m a lot more comfortable with the top than the spread, as it’s unclear how defensive Wisconsin will be after so much downtime, and with Michigan in desperation mode. Wisconsin 31, Michigan 24 | Choose: over 54 years old

Lock of the week

Army in Tulane (-4)

I don’t want to be Tulane this weekend. The only thing I want to do less than play an angry army team is play an angry army team that has been sitting at home in their anger for three weeks. Coach Jeff Monken is still angry and talks about his unhappiness with the cancellation of last week’s game against the Air Force, and it looks like Tulane will be the team that is forced to face it. Now I have to mention that Tulane played in the Navy earlier this season and did a good job of limiting the Navy’s option attack. This will work to his advantage. Yet the navy is not that army team. The Knights Offensive is ranked 34th nationally for race success rate. The Navy ranks 84th. Tulane’s defense was good enough against the run to slow Army down a bit, but I don’t think it was successful enough to stop him completely. Tulane 24, army 21 | Choice: Army +4

Trap of the week

# 9 Miami at Virginia Tech

You probably saw that line and didn’t know how Miami, a top 10 team, could be an underdog for an unranked Virginia Tech team that had just lost to Liberty last week. Well that’s what they want you to think. They beg you to take Miami with this line. Don’t fall for the trap. Yes Virginia Tech lost last week, but it was more down to stupidity than performance. According to Bill Connelly’s SP + metric, the Hokies had a 68% victory expectation. Earlier this season, they lost to Wake Forest despite a 78% victory expectation. Miami, meanwhile, has claimed three straight wins but simply allowed a North Carolina state attack led by Bailey Hockman to score 41 points last week. Miami is one of the top 10 teams in name only. Lay him down with the Hokies. Virginia Tech 45, Miami 38 | Picks: Virginia Tech -2

Less than the week

Pitt at Georgia Tech

If you like points, this probably won’t be the game for you! Neither offense has been very effective in 2020, with Pitt currently ranking 74th nationally in points per trip (2.00) while Georgia Tech registers at 106th (1.49). The little success that Georgia Tech has managed to muster offensively has come on the ground, as the Jackets rank 39th nationally in race success rates. Unfortunately, running the ball is not the way to beat Pitt. The Panthers are ranked 16th nationally for run defensive success rate. While I think the Panthers win this game because they are at least good in one area, I don’t trust them enough to cover such a big spread on the road. What I trust is that neither team will score a lot. Pitt 24, Georgia Tech 20 | Picks: under 51.5

Favorite route of the week

# 23 Northwestern at Purdue

In times of uncertainty, go for something familiar that you can trust. I trust Pat Fitzgerald’s teams on the road. A few weeks ago I told you to take the Wildcats cover against Iowa on the road and that’s exactly what they did. Now I’m telling you to do it again against this Purdue team. Purdue is 2-0 this season, but his victories have come against the same Iowa team Northwestern beat and against Illinois. In this Illinois game, the Illini lost a lot of starters and had to rely on their fourth string QB. Illinois returned the ball four times and still managed to outsmart the Boilermakers on offense. The Illini even had a chance to tie the game in the last minute before missing, and Purdue held on to win by a touchdown. It wasn’t the kind of performance that gave me a lot of confidence in Purdue’s 2-0 start. And, again, under Pat Fitzgerald, Northwestern is 51-33-1 ATS. Northwestern 24, Purdue 21 | Choice: Northwest -2.5

SportsLine pick of the week

Arkansas at Florida’s No.6 (-17.5, O / U 62.5): Do you want another choice? I didn’t have enough room to fit Arkansas and Florida into the column, but I have a choice for the game on my SportsLine page.

Games of the week	1-1	10-8
Lock of the week	0-1	4-5
Global	4-2	30-24

What college football picks can you confidently make in week 11? Visit SportsLine to see which teams will win and cover the spread – all from a proven computer model that has grossed nearly $ 3,900 in profits over the past four seasons and more – and find out.