[ad_1]
<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "But there is still disturbing news for Trump because the unstoppable growth of the labor market seems to suddenly stop. & nbsp;Employers created 75,000 new jobs& nbsp; in May, which is mediocre and not alarming in itself. But longer-term data show a & nbsp; remarkableslowdown in hiring, suggesting that an almost record expansion of 10 years may be about to end. "data-reactid =" 16 "> But there is still some worrying news for Trump, as unstoppable growth in the labor market seems suddenly to be halted – employers created In May, 75,000 jobs were created, which is mediocre and not alarming in itself, but longer-term data indicate a significant slowdown in hiring, suggesting an almost record-breaking 10-year expansion.
<p class = "canvas-atom-text-canvas Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Trump seems to think that the US economy is at bulletproof and can bear the higher costs and reduced trade flows its & nbsp;protectionist trade policies cause. But there are growing signs that it can not. Trump's tariffs could even contribute to weak employment data and other sectors of the economy. For these reasons, this week's Trump-o-meter reads WEAK, the third lowest note. "Data-reactid =" 17 "> Trump seems to think that the US economy is bulletproof and can withstand the higher costs and reduced trade flows of its protectionist trade Trump's tariffs could even contribute to the weakness of the data on employment and other sectors of the economy.For these reasons, this week's Trump-o-meter reads LOW, the third lowest rating.
Source: Yahoo Finance
We are not on the verge of a recession. But a slowdown can become a recession if policymakers are wrong. Monthly employment growth in 2019 was only 164,000 on average. Last year it averaged 223,000 people. The top of the last 10 years was reached in 2014, at 251,000. Here is the trend since 2000:
David Foster Stock Chart
Job numbers are changing, but there are other signs that the economy is slowing as Trump increases his re-election bid. Manufacturing activity weakened in 2019. The same is true for retail sales and business investment. The Federal Reserve's popular forecasting tool forecasts GDP growth of 1.4% in the second quarter, up from 3.1% in the first quarter. "The US economy will slow down this year after peaking in 2018," predicts the rating firm Moody's.
<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "The financial markets have found something to applaud in the work disappointing figures, with stocks up about 1% .It is because & nbsp;weakening of the labor market& nbsp; increases the chances of a Federal Reserve rate cut this year. Lower rates make borrowing cheaper, which usually helps the economy. Market expectations & nbsp;suggest the Fed& nbsp; lower rates by half a percentage point or even three-quarters of a point by the end of the year. "financial data-reactid =" 60 "> The financial markets have found something to applaud in the disappointing number of jobs, with shares rising about 1%, as the weakening of the labor market increases the chances of a job. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year Lower rates make borrowing cheaper, which generally helps the economy Market expectations suggest the Fed will cut back its rates in half point, or maybe three quarters of a point, by the end of the year.
<p class = "canvas-atom web-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "The economist Torsten Slok of the Deutsche Bank emphasizes this market expectations regarding the Fed's rate cuts are often wrong and an economy with an extremely low exchange rate of 3.6% & nbsp;unemployment rate& nbsp; should not need help. This is where the & nbsp;Trump Rates& nbsp; become very problematic. Is there a modest constraint on growth likely to remain contained? Or a time bomb that will explode in a few months? In any case, how much economic damage would Trump risk? "Data-reactid =" 61 "> The economist Torsten Slok of Deutsche Bank points out that market expectations regarding Fed rate cuts are often wrong. And an economy with an extremely low unemployment rate of 3, 6% It is there that Trump tariffs become very problematic.Is there a modest constraint on growth likely to remain contained or a time bomb that will explode in a few months? What economic damage Trump would risk anyway?
Trump probably thinks he can reconsider his prices if the markets or the economy show real signs of trouble. But that supposes that the evil can be canceled and that it does not always work that way. Jobs that should have been created last month but will not materialize suddenly next month.
[ad_2]
Source link