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A series of surprisingly strong recent economic data is expected to strengthen President Trump
Donald John TrumpPelosi is worried that Trump would have challenged the election if the margin of the House had been too thin. The anticipation is built in a tangible way in the testimony of Mueller Venezuela tests the relationship Trump-Bolton PLUScase as he heads for the 2020 election.
The US labor market exceeded expectations by adding 263,000 jobs in April, the unemployment rate fell to its lowest level in 50 years and gross domestic product growth accelerated at an annual rate of 3 , 2% in the first quarter.
Financial markets rebounded to record highs after a bloody end until 2018, while wage growth slowly increased after years of near-stagnation.
Economists were largely expecting the US economy to slow this year, with some fearing a potential recession. But these fears have fallen on the sidelines and the high numbers of the top-line offer little opportunity for Democrats to attack Trump on the state of the economy.
"The markets were wrong about the risks of a recession at the end of the year. The economy still has momentum, "wrote Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, in a research note on Friday.
Democrats seeking to dislodge Trump are instead focusing on pressure from the president to lower regulation, which they say has left fewer protections for workers, and large areas of the country still struggling to protect themselves. ;get out.
"Regardless of the economic numbers, most people feel they are working harder, but not moving forward," wrote Zac McCrary, a partner in ALG Research, an email poll on Friday.
"People do not vote according to macroeconomic parameters – they vote according to what is happening in their own lives."
The economy will occupy a central place in 2020. Trump and the congressional Republicans have called for the credit of stimulating the economy through massive tax cuts and radical deregulation.
When Trump took office in January 2017, he had inherited the former President Obama from a strong but slow growing economy. The unemployment rate was 4.7%, but GDP grew only 1.6% in 2016, the slowest level of economic growth since 2011.
The economy has moved to another level since the election of Trump, with unemployment down to 3.6% in April and GDP growth close to 3% in 2018.
Trump and vice president Mike Pence
Michael (Mike) Richard Pence The producer of Game of Thrones states that the actor shouted "Mike Pence" while filming battle scenes Pence: Omar "does not know what she's talking about" in Venezuela's health care night: Trump creates new religious protections for health workers | Dems turn black maternal deaths into a powerful 2020 issue | CBO estimates that 7 million more uninsured by ObamaCare mandate are repealed MORE have traveled the country to tout the strength of the economy, often in the midwestern states that voted for Obama in 2012 but delivered the White House to Republicans in 2016.
Republicans have focused on combining a near-record unemployment rate with faster GDP and faster wage growth. The April Employment Report released by the Ministry of Labor gave Trump new ammunition.
"We can all agree that AMERICA is now number one," Trump said in a tweet on Friday, accompanied by a photo from the Drudge Report's home page extolling the hiring boom in April. "We are the envy of the world – and the best is yet to come!
Democrats, however, argue that Obama should get credit for the explosion of prosperity. They say that the United States is reaping the full benefits of their efforts to rebuild the economy. Economic analysts believe that the stimulating effects of the GOP's tax cuts and the sharp increase in public spending are short-lived.
Even in this case, Republicans believe that the recent economic growth spurt will benefit Trump, who wants to be re-elected. Polls believe that Trump is globally unpopular, but they also show that the public gives him high marks for his management of the economy.
About 53 percent of Americans disapprove of Trump's presidency, according to an average of FiveThirtyEight approval polls updated Friday. However, 56 percent of those surveyed on CNN said they approve of Trump's economic record, a new record for his presidency.
"It's a stupid economy," says Stuart Roy, GOP strategist and former assistant to the Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell
Addison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnellHirono marvels in front of Trump's antagonistic Senate that confirms that Justice's 100th Trump-nominated president, the House climate committee, will consider the 2020-supported ban on drilling Dems MORE (R-Ky.), Wrote in an email, citing the unofficial slogan of the first White House campaign launched by former President Clinton in 1992.
The strength of the economy has not been enough to prevent Republicans from losing their majority in the House in the mid-term elections of 2018. 2020, Democrats are trying to focus their economic messages in a more nuanced way.
The Democrats focused on the 2017 tax law, which provided for a major corporate tax cut that stifled the popularity of the bill.
The liberal critics of the president said the cuts favored the rich and big companies over middle-class and working-class Americans. And there are warning signs that the argument could be effective in an election against Trump.
A poll conducted by ALG Research in March found that 75 percent of potential voters for 2020 and 60 percent of Republicans supported rising taxes for the rich, including 60 percent of Republicans.
"Voters do not have the impression that Trump's tax bill has reduced their taxes. In fact, many believe that their taxes have increased – while profits have benefited the rich and businesses, "McCrary wrote.
Several 2020 candidates have proposed to raise taxes on the wealthy in order to combat income inequality and fund several ambitious action plans.
Presidential Candidate Sen. Elizabeth Warren
Elizabeth Ann WarrenHow Democrats Will Avoid Eating Their Own "Education New Deal" Warren Will Be Dead On His Arrival Union Support Will Not Be Easy For Biden MORE (D-Mass.) Has presented a special annual tax for those whose net worth is over $ 50 million. His plan would apply a 2% tax on net worth between $ 50 million and $ 1 billion each year, and a 3% tax on $ 1 billion.
Sen. Kamala Harris
Kamala Devi Harris: The Senegalese Democrats have misplaced their questions because William Barr Harris is asking Trump to pressure Barr to open investigations. Poll: Biden leads 30 points in first place in Dem Dem (D-Calif.) Proposed a $ 6,000 tax credit for each family earning less than $ 100,000 a year. It would be funded by canceling Trump tax cuts for people earning over $ 100,000 and imposing a tax on financial institutions with assets of more than $ 50 billion.
And Sen. Cory Booker
Cory Anthony BookerUnion: support will not be easy for Biden Overnight Energy – Presented by Job Creators Network – Inslee unveils first of many climate proposals for 2020 | Inslee plan gets support from a key green group | Free concert tickets are sent to the Secretary of the Interior despite ethical issues On The Money: 263,000 jobs created in April in the US, disappointing expectations | Warren and Dems request a survey of companies preparing their returns | Biden faces the dilemma of K Street PLUS allies (DN.J.), who is also a presidential candidate, introduced a bill to create a federally funded savings account for each child, fueled by an increase in inheritance taxes and capital gains.
Democratic candidates have also tried to seduce voters attracted by Trump's populist rhetoric, with policies aimed at curbing giant corporations and unpopular industries.
Warren proposed a plan to dismantle the biggest tech companies, claiming that they distort markets and exploit American and middle-class workers.
Several candidates have also adopted an extension of public health insurance under the "Medicare for All" program in order to isolate voters from the rising costs of health care.
"Health costs are increasing for families and Donald Trump is part of the problem," McCrary wrote. "This message has beaten dozens of Republicans in office in 2018 – can beat Donald Trump in 2020."
But if these calls can overcome a strong economy, remains to be seen.
"If the Democrats are forced to deny prosperity, they impose themselves with a smaller part of the population," retorted Roy.
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