The Trump administration is considering changes that would redefine the poverty line: NPR

The Trump administration is considering changing the way the government measures poverty. Anti-poverty groups fear that many low-income people will be excluded from aid programs such as food stamps, Medicaid and Head Start.

The possible change would involve an annual adjustment of the poverty line using a different inflation measure, which would result in a slower increase over time.

Arloc Sherman of the Left Center on Budget and Policy Priorities believes that this change would mean that millions of people could see their benefits reduced or eliminated because they would no longer be considered poor.

"They have a goal, which is to take out of the government aid people with low or moderate income," said Sherman about the administration. He noted that the idea is coming out just as the White House is proposing work demands and major cuts to safety net programs.

The administration has raised the possibility of changing the calculation of poverty in a notice published this week in the Federal Register. It solicits public comment on the measure of inflation to use but does not state preference.

The current poverty line for a family of four is about $ 26,000. Each year, the government adjusts the line according to inflation according to the consumer price index. Among other things, the administration plans to use a version called "chain CPI", which is lower than the rate currently used. The chained CPI assumes that, as property prices rise, individuals substitute cheaper items, thus reducing their overall expenses.

Some economists argue that it is a more accurate way of measuring inflation and the administrations of Barack Obama and George W. Bush have tried, unsuccessfully, to "get the job done." introduce the use of the CPI chained in federal programs.

"It has come to nothing," recalls Douglas Holtz-Eakin, chief economist at the Bush Council of Economic Advisers. Holtz-Eakin says he understands why the proposal would provoke controversy among advocates for the fight against poverty. But if they fear cuts in public aid, it would be better to modify the programs themselves rather than continue to use an inaccurate measure of inflation.

"If we are going to have federal programs indexed on inflation and we have a lot – we have the tax code, we have social security, we have the poverty index, etc. – there It's important to measure inflation as properly as possible, "he says. Holtz-Eakin, who chairs the right-wing US Action Forum, notes that the 2017 tax law requires that the chained IPC be now used to adjust tax brackets.

Nevertheless, he thinks that there is less than a 50% chance that the change will occur because of the fierce opposition expected from those who believe that they would be harmed.

Anti-poverty groups are already preparing to block any such change, describing it as part of a broader security net attack by the administration. They are also fighting efforts to impose stricter work requirements on recipients of food stamps and efforts to limit housing and other assistance to immigrants.

"It's a cynical attempt to put pressure on working-class people, their incomes will ALWAYS be too low to make ends meet, but Trump's decree would make it harder for them to qualify for help," he said. tweeted Melissa Boteach, National Center for Women's Rights.

She and others say that the current measure of poverty is already insufficient to meet the needs of low-income families, because it is based on a 1960s formula that an average family spends about one-third of its income on low-income families. food, which is no longer the case.

The government has recently started producing an additional measure of poverty that most experts believe is more accurate. It takes into account items such as medical and childcare expenses, geographical differences in the cost of housing and the value of benefits such as food stamps and tax credits. But this measure is not used to determine eligibility for government programs.

Sherman, from the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities, said the administration should look at the overall impact of the current poverty measure rather than choosing an element that would lead to a reduction in benefits for families low income.

The administration accepts comments on the calculation of poverty until June 21.