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He then repeated the request after the National Meteorological Service demystified it.
Then he insisted that the media, not him, were wrong.
Then, to try to prove his point of view, he showed the media an obsolete map, clearly altered.
Then, trying again, he tweeted an unmodified card that was too old to prove his point of view.
Then, trying again again, he tweeted some older cards.
Finally, Trump asked his Homeland Security Advisor to issue a statement attesting to his presence.
For five days, President Donald Trump has launched a series of inaccurate and confusing statements about Dorian – aggressively defending his original false claim by being repeatedly dishonest about what he had said at the outset .
We prepared the fiasco for you, commentary by comment.
Sunday 1st September at 10h51:
This is important: Trump's first statement is that Alabama, among other states, will likely be more affected than previous forecasts had suggested.
Except that the opposite is true.
According to forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, two days earlier, Dorian had discovered that a tiny portion of southeastern Alabama could be affected by Dorian . (The "cone of uncertainty" spread over a few kilometers in the state.)
But NOAA's current forecast at the time of Trump's tweet showed that the storm had no impact on the state, as it was moving north rather than west.
Sunday 1st September at 11:11 am:
Sunday 1st September at 11:14 am:
"The initial course was dead in Florida, now it seems to be going to South Carolina, North Carolina." Georgia is going to be affected. "Alabama is going to have a piece of it, it looks like," he says.
Sunday 1st September at 12:31 pm:
"And, I'll say, the states – and that can become a little bit of a big place: it's called Alabama, and Alabama might even have at least some very strong winds and something more than that, it Unfortunately, this has just happened, it's the size of the storm we're talking about, so for Alabama, just be careful too, "he says.
Again, no current NOAA forecast shows that Alabama is likely to be affected.
Monday, September 2nd, 7:16 pm:
Trump claims that he was right in his Sunday remarks, as "some original scenarios" had hinted that Alabama could be affected. But this statement is clearly contradicted by his three comments on Sunday, in which he suggested referring to new information.
Wednesday, September 4th, 2:38 pm:
Trump says that "Alabama was in the initial forecast," again ignoring that the state had not been in the predictions by the time he made his comments Sunday. And he says, "In any case, Alabama has been affected – if it is not lightly, in some cases, rather harshly." Georgia, Alabama – it was a different route They actually gave this probability a 95% probability. "
It's not clear who "they" are or what exactly he says "they" said that they had a 95% chance. NOAA has never given the storm a 95% chance of hitting Alabama.
Wednesday, September 4th, 6:23 pm:
He said, "It was the originally planned trajectory of the hurricane at its inception. As you can see, almost every model predicted that he would cross Florida, also hitting Georgia and Alabama. I accept the excuses of Fake News!
There are a lot of problems here.
Again, the map is not a forecast; they are raw information used to make forecasts. Again, Trump was not talking about obsolete forecasts when he made Sunday's comments on the media.
The map comes from a local entity, not from NOAA's National Hurricane Center – and the map itself indicates that the National Hurricane Center's notices "replace" what the map shows.
And it's not true that "almost every model" has shown the storm that has crossed Alabama. In fact, only a small minority of early models showed that the storm had crossed Alabama. Trump did not show any evidence that a spaghetti pattern at the time of his comments had any impact on Alabama.
Thursday 5th September at 10h16:
This map, dated NOAA and dated August 29, concerns tropical tropical winds. It shows that three days before the president's speech Sunday, southeastern Alabama had 5% to 20% chance of experiencing strong winds causing tropical storms over the next five days, while in the south-east of Alabama there was a 5% to 20% chance of experiencing high winds causing tropical storms over the next five days, while a large part of the state had 0% chance.
Other states have indicated that at least one NOAA forecast that gave at least a 5% chance of experiencing tropical storm force winds included New York, New Jersey and Delaware, which the president has not mentioned at any time in his reflections Dorian.
Thursday, September 5 at 7:48 am:
You know what we are going to say. Models showing that Alabama was "grazed" were out of date by the time he spoke on Sunday.
Thursday, September 5th, 1:03 pm:
The South Florida Water Management District sends a statement to CNN explaining that it produces "hundreds" of spaghetti parcels a day. "The parcels are updated every 15 minutes to capture updates in the public data used to produce the parcels," said the district.
Thursday, September 5th, 4:44 pm:
"Just as I said, it was initially expected that Alabama would be hit." The Fake News denies it! " he says.
These maps, however, showed that no part of Alabama was likely, even days before Trump's Sunday speech, to have more than a 30% chance of having tropical storm force winds. For most states, the odds were 0% to 20%.
And, again, that's not what Trump said on Sunday. These remarks, those covered by the media, concerned new presumed information, and not original projections.
Thursday, September 5th, 5:31 pm:
The White House issues a statement by Trump's Homeland Security Advisor, Rear-Admiral of the Coast Guard, Peter Brown. Brown said Trump made his comments Sunday after Brown gave the president a hurricane briefing that "included the possibility of high winds causing tropical storms in southeastern Alabama". Brown adds that the NOAA forecast until Monday, September 2, showed "the possibility" that such winds hit "parts of Alabama".
On Sunday and Monday, however, forecasts gave only 5% to 10% chance of being hit by tropical storm winds in part of Alabama.
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