The Trump rally seems to be over

President Trump has boasted more than 60 times of the performance of the stock market since his election in 2016. However, it may be that it is over.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Since the day Trump won the election , the S & P Index P 500 (^ GSPC) increased by 32%. But almost all this gain was achieved in January 2018. Since January 26, 2018, the S & P index has fallen by 1.7%. Data-reactid = "16"> Since the day Trump won the election, the S & P 500 Index (^ GSPC) has risen by 32%. But almost all of this gain came in January 2018. Since January 26, 2018, the S & P has lost 1.7%, so the stock market has gone nowhere.

<p class = "canvas-atom-canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Coincident or not, & nbsp;Trump announced& nbsp; his first & nbsp;protectionist tariffs& nbsp; in January 2018, on solar panels and imported washing machines. He then added new rates on & nbsp;imported& nbsp; steel and aluminum, and half of & nbsp;imports from China. China and other countries have responded with their own tariffs on US imports. Trade hostilities are not the only factor affecting stocks, but the correlation between a falling market and Trump's behavior.pricesBy coincidence or not, Trump announced its first protectionist tariffs for imported solar panels and washing machines in January 2018. He then added new tariffs on steel and steel. Imported aluminum, and half Commercial hostilities are not the only factor affecting stocks, but the correlation between a secure market and Trump's tariffs is undeniable.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "There were peaks and valleys during the 16 last The S & P broke a new record on September 21st of last year, what Trump & nbsp;brag about on Twitter. Another new record was reached on April 30 this year, while Trump expressed surprise. "You mean the stock market has hit an all-time high today," he tweeted, "and they're actually talking about dismissal !?" "Data-reactid =" 18 "> There was ups and downs over the past 16 months The S & P broke a new record on September 21 of last year, what Trump brag about on Twitter. Another new record was reached on April 30 this year, while Trump expressed surprise. "You mean the stock market has hit a record all time today," he tweeted, "and they are actually talking about impeachment?"

Strong sales in the midst of these records, however, dampened gains, which is why the market grew by 13% in 2019, but has remained unchanged since last January. If you had the chance to buy during the sales, you have earned money. But if you hold an S & P 500 index fund, you have only earned dividends since the beginning of 2018.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Commercial conflict to blame"data-reactid =" 20 ">Commercial conflict to blame

<p class = "web-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Nobody knows where the stock market is headed, but Trump is a little responsible: its trade dispute with China has clearly depressed stocks since May 5, when Trump announced the addition of new tariffs on imports from China. & nbsp;China fought back& nbsp; the next week with its own new tariffs on imports from the United States. That was what trade experts feared in case of escalation – and this has so far sent the S & P down 4%. "Data-reactid =" 21 "> Nobody knows where the stock market is going, but there are many signs that it has come in. Its trade dispute with China has clearly depressed stocks since May 5, the day Trump announced the announcement. New tariffs on Chinese imports – China fought back the next week with its own new tariffs on US imports, trade experts feared in escalation – and so far , the S & P lost 4%.

The markets still seem to think that the Chinese and American negotiators will end up after a "period of reflection" and conclude a sort of agreement. This would likely generate a recovery in inventories. But an agreement would require one of the parties to give up their key claims, which each has now indicated they do not want to do. Moody's Analytics estimates the probability of an agreement at 60%, the probability of a stalemate or escalation more damaging at 40%.

A trade agreement would not necessarily eliminate the new tariffs put in place by both parties. In fact, Trump talked about leaving the 25% tariff on Chinese imports worth $ 250 billion, exactly where they are, to enforce the terms of the agreement, or maybe to be simply because he likes customs duties. It would disappoint the markets, since the optimal trade deal is one in which everybody is kind and all the punitive tariffs go away.

<p class = "canvas-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "Can the United States withstand stress better than China?"data-reactid =" 24 ">Can the United States withstand stress better than China?

<p class = "canvas-atom-canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "The & nbsp;Low rates are a tax& nbsp; that goes & nbsp;costs the typical American household $ 831 a year, according to the New York Federal Reserve. This burden is not enough to bring about a recession or a stock market correction, butgrowing cup& nbsp; as it slows rather than accelerates, increasing the risk of conspiracy of downward pressures. "data-reactid =" 25 "> Trump duties are a tax that will cost the typical US household $ 831 a year, according to the New York Federal Government This burden is not enough to cause a recession or a correction of the stock markets, but it slows growth because it slows rather than accelerates, which increases the risk of downward conspiratorial pressure.

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Trump's calculation assumes that the US economy can withstand the stress of a trade war better than China, and he may be right about it. But Trump can also be complacent about a surprisingly resilient economy since taking office, which has never forced him to consider a real risk of recession. It will not last forever.

<p class = "web-atom canvas-text Mb (1.0em) Mb (0) – sm Mt (0.8em) – sm" type = "text" content = "The activity in the manufacturing sector has recently dropped to 10 Durable goods sales fell more than expected in April .The yield curves of the bond market warned of lower prices in April. "The US economic slowdown and the growing risk of recession are occurring whatever the outcome of the trade ", & nbsp;Morgan Stanley argued in recent research. "US." Data-reactid = "38"> Activity in the manufacturing sector has recently dropped to its lowest level in 10 years, and that was before Trump raised the bar with China by increasing rates, which Sales of durable goods fell more than expected in April. The yield curves of the bond market are a worrying sign. "The slowdown in the US economy and the growing risk of recession occur regardless of the commercial outcome," recent studies have said Morgan Stanley. "Risks related to US profits and the economy United are superior to what most investors think. "

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