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The US labor market returned to normal in March with vigorous hiring and wage growth in many sectors, easing fears about the health of the economy after hiring into the crater in February.
The economy added 196,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department reported Friday, in line with expectations and a rebound after the creation of 33,000 abnormal jobs in February.
The unemployment rate remained at 3.8%, and economists cited strong hiring to predict that the US would face no risk of an impending recession.
"The job market remains healthy and last month is only an exception," said Brad McMillan, chief investment officer at Commonwealth Financial Network.
February's slowdown in employment may have been driven by two temporary factors: the reluctance of employers to hire new employees in the dead of winter and the economic persistence of the long government shutdown that has shaken the confidence of business owners and investors.
Most economists predict that the economy will slow this year at a satisfactory pace, but not very fast, as the effects of tax cuts and additional government spending will ease. They expect a moderate recruitment rate because companies see less need to develop.
Jobs have been strong in the areas of health, food services and professional services such as computer services. However, the hiring of blue-collar workers has slowed in recent weeks, with manufacturing losing 6,000 jobs, in part due to the closure of a major General Motors auto plant in Ohio.
The pace of construction jobs also slowed after months of strong growth. Experts observe whether there is a temporary easing or the beginning of a more marked downturn in certain branches of the economy.
Erica Groshen, visiting researcher at Cornell University and former director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, a non-partisan agency who said: "The number of temporary workers, even though it is still high, has stagnated this year." Another sign that the economy could cool as expected. " tabulates employment data.
"The job market is very strong. . . the only slightly yellow warning sign is temporary help, "she said. "This is a leading indicator that may suggest that companies are slowing down recruitment or taking a break."
Companies usually hire temporary workers when they want to increase their workforce quickly, but these workers are often the first to leave when companies are trying to reduce their costs.
President Trump said "we are doing very well" on Friday before taking the plane to get to the US-Mexico border. He blamed any economic weakness on the Federal Reserve, arguing that the economy would behave like a "spaceship" if the central bank lowered rates.
Trump is appointing two close allies of his business man, Herman Cain, and conservative Conservative Stephen Moore, to the Fed's board of directors who shares his views on rates.
The United States has had more job opportunities than unemployed since last summer, prompting companies to increase salaries and offering signing bonuses and more training programs in order to recruit and train employees.
Wages rose 3.2 percent last year, according to the Department of Labor, slightly below the February rate, the best of the decade and well above the 1.5 percent inflation rate.
Low-income workers experienced the largest wage increase in recent months, with employers reporting that they have difficulty finding enough people to fill jobs, and many states have introduced minimum wage increases.
Adam Roston saw the competition intensify for warehouse workers. In central Pennsylvania, one of the major trucking centers, a warehouse has increased wages from $ 13.50 to $ 14.50 and has allowed worker retention to gain 400%, Roston said. , Managing Director of BlueCrew, a specialized site for businesses looking for temporary workers.
"Everyone is having trouble hiring. Raising wages is one way to solve the problem, "said Roston.
TARGET announced this week that it would increase its starting salary to $ 13 an hour in June, a further increase of the dollar from the company's current minimum wage and another sign of escalating competition. between the workers. This is the third pay increase Target has achieved over the past two years.
As long as jobs remain strong and wages rise, the economy should continue to grow, experts say, because people usually spend more when they do not fear losing their jobs.
"The strong employment report is minimizing fears of a severe slowdown in the US recession," said Robin Anderson, Senior Economist at Principal Global Investors.
Like many economists, Anderson predicts that job growth will be slower this year than in 2018, but that wages should continue to rise.
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits has fallen to the lowest level since 1969 this week.
Many companies are recruiting people they may not have seen before, including people who have a serious crime, people with disabilities, and Americans who have not completed their education.
"Companies are no longer looking for the ideal candidate. They're asking what to do with us, "said Josh Wright, chief economist at iCIMS, a talent acquisition platform.
Bruno Sahagun Palao, 21, of Miami, landed a full-time job as a business consultant at American Express last month. It helps companies understand American Express products and determine what suits them best. His salary is over $ 50,000 a year plus benefits, which means he's already earning the average salary of all American workers during his first year of career.
"It's not just the salary that brought me here. There are many opportunities for growth in this department, "said Palao in an interview during his lunch break. "My goal is not to find a job, it's to build a career."
In the evening, Palao studies to obtain a bachelor's degree in business administration. He attributes his early success to a program called Year Up that trains young people to acquire professional skills, including how to interview and create a LinkedIn profile, and helps them get internships with large companies.
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