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While the administration was ending the waivers that allowed eight countries to continue buying Iranian crude and condensate, an administration official told CNN that they were worried about the reaction of the government. Tehran, which could target US assets in the Middle East and raise tensions in the United States and in the country. Region.
The administration has sharply reduced Iranian oil exports in a very short time, analysts said, and the elimination of the waiver aims to cut them completely. US officials are wary, however, of countries' efforts to find ways to circumvent potential sanctions through smuggling and the use of companies with little connection to the US financial system.
A burgeoning international conflict, competing foreign policy priorities and the emphasis put by President Donald Trump on the political impact of gasoline prices could also hinder attempts by the government. administration aimed at reducing Tehran's estimated daily exports from 1.1 to 1.3 million barrels per day.
"I do not think Iranian oil will stop flowing," said Elizabeth Rosenberg, a former Senior Treasury Department Advisor. While Rosenberg said she was expecting a "big dive", she pointed out that "this is not going to go to zero – the US has a major implementation challenge to apply."
In November, the government granted waivers to eight countries to continue importing Iranian crude oil and condensates: China, India, Turkey, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Greece and Italy. China and India reportedly should receive extensions when the waivers expire on May 2nd.
The focus on oil exports is the last leg of the administration's "maximum pressure" campaign to create change in Iran – an effort that some say is more focused on changing the pace of change. diet. The intense American concentration on Iran has alienated the traditional allies of Europe who have joined the Iranian nuclear deal that Trump has abandoned.
Analysts believe that the frictions on the US approach to Iran could undermine other foreign policy priorities as the White House is using it to forge closer ties with India. and to conclude a trade agreement with China. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo left no room for maneuver when he announced April 22, taking energy markets off guard.
"Today, I announce that we will no longer grant any derogation," Pompeo told the press that day. "We will achieve zero – zero in all areas, we will continue to apply sanctions and monitor compliance, and any nation or entity interacting with Iran must be diligent and cautious. are just not obvious, will be worth the benefits. "
Two days later, Iran's Foreign Minister Javad Zarif reacted to an event of the Asia Society in New York. "We think Iran will continue to sell its oil," he said. "We will continue to find buyers for our oil and we will continue to use the Strait of Hormuz as a safe transit route for the sale of our oil."
He added a warning. "If the United States takes the crazy step of trying to prevent us from doing it," Zarif said, "then they should be prepared for the consequences."
US security officials have worried that Tehran may react asymmetrically by targeting US installations and personnel in the Middle East.
Cyber answer
Henry Rome, Eurasia Group analyst, said that Iran was not inclined to react aggressively. He hoped instead to open a form of negotiation with the United States or hold on and hope for a successor to Trump.
"If we are wrong and the Iranians choose to react aggressively to these oil sanctions, I think the main threat is cyberspace, that it is the destruction of a refinery of Saudi oil or the pursuit of a bank in the Middle East, think that's their most likely route, "said Rome. "This gives them some degree of denial, there is less pressure on President Trump to try to react, so the risk of escalation is relatively lower."
Meanwhile, the Iranians should continue to smuggle oil, possibly finding roads across Pakistan, Iraq and Afghanistan, among others.
His group cooked 200,000 barrels a day in smuggling traffic, trying to hide the location of tankers. "The Iranian crude will arrive on the market after May 2," he said. "It will be just in significantly smaller volumes."
Relative to the Obama administration, "the Trump administration has removed more Iranian barrels in a short time with less international cooperation," Rome said. But he added that "the way they did it has and will continue to dramatically disrupt international oil markets and bilateral relations with major Iranian oil importers," he added.
The potential disruption of oil markets could ultimately contribute to the difficulty of reducing Iran's exports.
Production within the oil cartel of OPEC has been disrupted by US sanctions against Venezuela, escalating conflict in Libya and a Saudi decision to cut production, analysts said.
Rosenberg said the realities of the oil market are another reason why it will be difficult to eliminate Iranian oil exports. "I do not expect it to reach zero, there are not enough supplies, there have not been enough notice," Rosenberg said. "The Saudis do not have enough, it does not happen."
Oil prices are another asset, as many factors are already pushing up gas prices in the US – a "red line" for Trump, notes the group Eurasia – just as Americans start the summer driving season .
And then there is the question of whether the importing countries will cooperate or try to challenge Washington.
"We expect South Korea and Japan to fully comply with their goals," said Rome.
"We expect China and India to conform more or less" – but not entirely, added Rome.
"The big difference is that we expect both countries to continue importing small volumes of Iranian crude, about 300,000 barrels a day," Rome said. "Generally, these countries are more docile than they are defying, but they still do not want to lose face on this and have enough incentive to come up with ways to get around this problem."
China and India have made substantial investments in Iran and expect the two countries to claim that their continued acceptance of Iranian oil equals the repayment of a debt and not a contribution to the Iranian debt. coffers.
Some countries have made it clear that they could resist. China and Turkey, Iran's biggest customers, reacted furiously to the announcement of the US decision to plug the Iranian pipelines.
Opposition
"We do not accept unilateral sanctions and imposition on how we build our relations with our neighbors," Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said in a tweet on April 22 when the United States announced their decision. He added that it would undermine regional peace and stability and violate the rules of the World Trade Organization.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang told reporters on April 22 that his country "opposes unilateral sanctions and the so-called" long-arm "jurisdictions imposed by the United States … it should be respected, "he added.
Rosenberg added that nevertheless, Beijing could look for serene solutions in the United States, working with small businesses that are not connected to the US financial system.
"These largest refiners and companies [who do business with Iran] are going to withdraw significantly and that smaller traders, smaller refiners, less exposed to US forces, will intervene and buy Iranian oil, "she said, citing Chinese companies that have exercised similar functions in the past. " If they are designated or sanctioned in practice, it will not be as important to them. "
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