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This article first appeared in the Morning Brief. Get the Morning Brief delivered straight to your inbox Monday through Friday before 6:30 a.m. ET. Subscribe
Monday July 19, 2021
Businesses of all sizes feel good about the economy
Optimism about the US economy is abundant right now.
Consumers have not been so confident about their outlook since the start of the pandemic. And for the nation’s largest companies, of course, it’s not enough to look far beyond the performance of the S&P 500 (^ GSPC) and tightening credit spreads to see just how strong corporate conditions are. today.
And when executives like Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan (JPM), say “the pump is ready” for consumers to start spending, you know what he thinks about the state of the economic recovery.
But recent data also shows that there is trust across the board, for businesses large and small.
Released on Monday, JPMorgan Chase’s 2021 Business Leaders Outlook survey found that 88% of business leaders polled by the bank are optimistic about their business prospects over the next six months, the highest on record for the 11-year survey.
“After enduring the challenges of the past year and a half, businesses are feeling overwhelmingly positive about what to expect,” said Jim Glassman, chief economist at JPMorgan Chase, commercial bank. annual revenues between $ 20 million and $ 500 million.
The bank’s survey also shows that three-quarters of those polled are optimistic about the national and local economy, up 40 percentage points from last year.
Meanwhile, last week, the National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) released its June Small Business Optimism Index, which topped Wall Street expectations and rose above 100 for the first time since November. The report also showed that 15% of those polled believed the next three months to be a good time to grow – the highest percentage since February 2020.
Both reports, however, cited hiring challenges and concerns about inflation as priority issues for business leaders large and small.
JPMorgan’s survey showed that some 81% of companies the company has heard of plan to increase their workforce in the next six months. Data from the NFIB revealed that 63% of small businesses hired or attempted to hire workers in June. JPMorgan’s investigation also notes that accelerated retirements – a topic we previously discussed in The Morning Brief – are creating staffing issues.
And as a plethora of data has shown – from the jobs report to inflation readings and job vacancy surveys – the economy’s recovery from its COVID-induced recession has been anything but one. smooth running. But employers competing for the workforce and complaining about rising wage demands are a champagne problem when we’re only 15 months away from an almost overnight shutdown. economy that has put more than 20 million Americans out of work.
Or as JPMorgan’s Glassman said, “The focus is now on managing the growing difficulties to harness the momentum of the economic recovery, which is a comparatively good problem to have.” And we saw the other side.
Through Myles abroad, journalist and presenter for Yahoo Finance Live. Follow him on @MylesUdland
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