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By Robert Johnson
April 14, 2019
After last year 's Boston marathon was run in appalling conditions, resulting in the slowest men' s victory time since 1976 and the women 's since 1978, I understand why many feared that it would not be the same. history is repeating itself for the 2019 edition of tomorrow since it became apparent a week ago that rain would be in the area.
Well, I have good news to report. There is no need to bail out Boston, as some people have envisioned on the bulletin board last week – MB: Someone else plans to bail out Boston?
The weather will be nice and could even be conducive to the realization of a PR. This afternoon, I used my new favorite app, Dark Sky (which I only heard about last week), and I picked up the forecasts for the beginning (Hopkinton), the midfield (Wellesley) and the finish (Copley Square) for tomorrow. race. I then forwarded screenshots of forecasts to the weather / statistics guru of LetsRun.com – John Kellogg.
If you're not a regular LetsRun.com regular visitor, Mr. Kellogg is the only man in the world to have said before the 2011 race that it would not surprise him to see the fastest marathon of the year. world in Boston if the runners ran strong with this weapon. And that's exactly what happened while the time saved was 2:03:02 when the world record was 2:03:59.
MB: John Kellogg is a great discussion thread (he predicted 2:03 in Boston)
RSC Once at A (Marathon) Lifetime conditions scheduled for Boston on Monday
Kellogg made this bold prediction for a simple reason: there was a huge tailwind in 2011.
Tomorrow, it appears there again could be another beautiful downwind. In the table below, you will see the forecast weather for the start, middle and finish of tomorrow's race (the women's race starts at 9:32 am ET and the men's race at 10:00 am ET). Below you will see a map of the course that shows its course to the northeast.
| Temp | Dew point | Wind | Wind gusts | |
| Departure (Hopkinton – 10:00 ET) | 64 F | 60 F | 13 mph | 27 mph |
| Midway (Wellesley – 11:00 am ET) * | 67 F | 59 F | 13 mph | 24 mph |
| Finish (Copley Square 12:00 pm ET) | 69 F | 56 F | 13 mph | 21 mph |
Photo via Marathonguide.com * Forecasts were given in increments of 2 hours. So we calculated the average of the 10 o'clock and noon forecasts to get the 11-hour forecast. |
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Dark Sky predicts a northeast wind (over southwest) of 13mph throughout the race, from start to finish. It's fantastic and the good news. The bad news is that the 60s are warmer than ideal for a marathon.
"A wind of 13 mph could help runners to gain about 5 seconds per kilometer, maybe even up to 7 seconds per kilometer if it is a lot of gusts, but that will be offset by the temperature, with which I do not feel comfortable with. make real predictions about people's different reaction to temperatures in the '60s. You can not call it that hot, but it's definitely a bit hot for a marathon, "said John Kellogg when I asked him to comment the weather forecast for Dark Sky. "The temperatures in the 60s with a tailwind are not ideal because it's not going to be a refreshing breeze. It may sound a little stuffy. Riders will exceed the wind as if the reported wind speed was 13 mph. When you approach the head, chest and back, it is only about 7 mph. "
I then asked Kellogg to predict which would have the greatest impact – the tailwind or the temperatures – and he reluctantly said, "It will probably equalize – the wind and the temperature. If the wind can be a little stronger, maybe overall, the weather could help them gain a second or two per mile. "
So there you have it. PRs can certainly be possible if forecasts are verified. Please note that John Kellogg's comments are based on the southwest wind. Weather.com predicts that the wind will blow from the south, which would be more of a crosswind. If this is true, the weather could hurt runners a few seconds per mile.
Talk about Boston weather on our world-famous fan forum / forum. MB: 2019 Boston Weather Lead
LRC Archives from 2011: MB: John Kellogg is a great discussion thread (he predicted 2:03 in Boston)
RSC Once at A (Marathon) Lifetime conditions scheduled for Boston on Monday
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