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| Michigan odds | +1.5 |
| Ohio State Ratings | -1.5 |
| Moneyline | +102 / -125 |
| More under | 148.5 |
| Time | TV | Sunday, 1 p.m. ET | CBS |
| Quotes Saturday at 5 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. | |
I grew up in Ann Arbor and have watched Wolverines basketball for most of my life. I have never seen such a talented Michigan basketball team as this.
Sadly, and predictably, standing between the Wolverines and a Big Ten title is one of the most talented Ohio State teams in recent memory.
For as incredible as it gets played, I’m not sure Michigan has the offensive firepower to beat Ohio State on the road Sunday afternoon. However, I’m also not sure Ohio State is skilled enough on defense to remain competitive with the Wolverines for this purpose.
Therefore, the most important game of this game will be the Ohio State offense against the Michigan defense.
The winner of this battle is too hard to predict. However, the value of betting in this game lies in the total.
The match: Ohio State’s attack on Michigan’s defense
Just recently, the Ohio State attack and Michigan defense have been phenomenal.
For example, the state of Ohio is 3-1-1 in its last five games. Meanwhile, Michigan is 4-1 to Under in its last five games. The sub has also struck in both Michigan games since returning to play after a 24-day hiatus due to COVID-19 protocols.
Michigan has the best defense in the Big Ten. He leads the conference in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom, and also paces the conference with the fewest points allowed per game (62.8).
Meanwhile, Ohio State is second in the conference in offensive efficiency and 2-point percentage, fourth in 3-point percentage and first in free throw percentage. In addition, the Buckeyes score the third most points per game in the Big Ten.
From a personnel perspective, Ohio State is leading its offensive through EJ Liddell and Duane Washington. The guard-tall combo has scored a total of 30.4 points per game this season. Liddell adds 6.6 rebounds and 1.3 blocks per game while Washington distributes three assists per game.
At a time when the small ball dominates, Juwan Howard’s team is big and long. Michigan’s frontcourt consists of 6-foot-7 Isaiah Livers, 6-foot-9 Franz Wagner and 7-foot-1 Hunter Dickinson.
In case you haven’t noticed, it works.
Dickinson was a revelation on offense while also being incredibly valuable to the Wolverines’ home defense. In Michigan’s last two games, Dickinson has totaled 23 rebounds and six blocks.
However, Wagner is the glue guy from Michigan. Not only does he average 12 points and three assists in attack, but he is a versatile defender who resists all positions. Wagner is also averaging 6.8 rebounds, 1.4 steals and 1.1 blocks per game. Simply put, it does it all.
PB:
Bet analysis and selection
I think Michigan is the best team in the conference. Regardless of the outcome of this game, Michigan should advance to the Big Ten Championship and the No.1 seed in the NCAA tournament.
However, Howard is 0-2 straight (SU) and ATS (ATS) against Buckeyes coach Chris Holtmann. Also, Michigan may still be recovering from their long hiatus. Therefore, it’s not a smart game to bring the Wolverines here.
Instead, I like the underside in this spot.
The Ohio State offense has actually been worse at home than on the road this season. The Buckeyes are ranked 50th nationally in points per game, but only 92nd in points per game at home.
Meanwhile, the Ohio State defense performed better at home. He ranks 129th for points per game allowed in total, but 81st for points per game allowed at home. In fact, the Buckeyes are allowing Columbus just 63.6 points per game this season.
Alternatively, Michigan’s already stifling defense works better on the road than at home. Michigan ranks 51st for points per game allowed, but 37th for points per game allowed on the road.
Additionally, Michigan’s offense is much less efficient on the road, ranking 47th in points per game this season, but only 115th in points per game away.
All of this helps explain why Michigan is 4-1 on the underside on the road, while Ohio State is 6-5 on the underside at home but 7-2-1 on the top. on the road.
The under is 6-3 the last nine times these two teams have played. In the Big Ten, 148.5 is a number high enough that I’m down.
So I’m betting on trends to continue Sunday afternoon in Columbus. I’ll play the least at 146 or more.
Take: Less than 148.5 (up to 146)
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