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In the current state of things, PECOTA (and most systems) project that the Mets are a team of 87 wins, finishing second or third in the NL East, while winning a place in the Wild Card or located directly in the the bubble.
However, looking at the list, I consider that these three players could potentially tip the number above in a clearly positive or negative direction, based on what they've provided in 2019.
Noah Syndergaard
The difference between Syndergaard and the other two players on this list is that we have seen him excel in New York City during a whole season. We know what he can do here in New York every five days for six months. It's not his first time playing for the Mets, and it's not a season, we hope he's going to the next level. He has been at this level.
Unfortunately, he missed most of 2017 due to an injury. And, while he was great last season on the mound, he made 151 shots in just 25 throws. The Mets do not necessarily need more Syndergaard when it is on the mound. Instead, they need him to spend more time on the mound.
In a season where pitchers will have to pitch to three hitters before being replaced, the difference between 25 and 32 starts of Syndergaard could be about 40 innings that Mickey Callaway did not have. need to use a choke or a lifter.
The same can be said of obtaining complete seasons Zack Wheeler and Steven Matz. The difference, however, is that if Wheeler and Matz were successful, Syndergaard launched a full season in 2016 and almost won the Cy Young Award.
Together, based on what we have seen before, Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom have the ability to be on the mound for at least 30 percent of the season, while keeping the ball out of the game nearly 500 times and producing between 10 and 15 WAR. In a world where these two phenomena occur, the Mets will be able to cope with any major injury, any casual missed start or any bad part of the starting round.
That said, if Syndergaard is the launcher missing starts and / or difficulties, we will turn to Matz, Wheeler and Vargas for exceed expectations (instead of just meeting them as Noah). It's always a vulnerable point for a winning team.
Michael Conforto
Conforto should hit at least 25 circuits (if not more). He will hit at least 20 doubles and beat no less than .240, which will bring him around 3-4 WARs again.
However, when he is in good health and his hitter is productive, Conforto produced much more than the results above. Since 2015, with at least three or four other productive hitters around him, Conforto looks like a MVP hitter.
Last season, in his last 150 goals and once back from his shoulder surgery, he produced at a rate that would give close to 50 homers, 100 extra base shots, 150 RBIs and a OBP of. 360.
Obviously, he will almost certainly not get those numbers for an entire season of his career, although it would be great if he did. However, this shows what he is able to do when he is in good health and that he plays every day, no matter who is playing around him in training.
This season, stuck between Robinson Cano and Wilson Ramos, Conforto will find himself in a situation similar to that where he frequently encountered Neil Walker and Asdrubal Cabrera in 2016. But in this scenario, Cano and Ramos have a bigger reputation and increased power potential.
Being able to watch from the circle on the deck the Cano clashes with the pitcher of the day, who will have to think about how he plays against Conforto knowing that Ramos is on the deck, should allow the 26-year-old southpaw to be more patient and strategic he does with the bat this year.
"Cano will often be second, so it's an added bonus for me," Conforto recently told the press, while praising the opportunity to get behind Cano.
In this kind of situation, on the basis of what Conforto did at the end of last season, I think it's fair to think that it can exceed 30 circuits and 30 doubles and bat around .280, how much he would be a 5-6 WAR, MVP candidate.
In a world where Cano and Ramos are in good health and where Conforto is in the middle of the cleaning season, the Mets score a lot of tracks. And, with their throw, if the Mets score points, they will win. That said, if Conforto struggles or is injured, the opposing pitchers will be able to reduce the number of canoes around Cano and Ramos and reduce by at least a third of the team's composition each evening .
Wilson Ramos
In all likelihood, Ramos will hit 0.280, belts 10-15 runners, and will get 500 appearances at the plate (assuming he is in good health for most of the season). This is not his greatest value for the Mets, and that's not why I ranked him as a pivotal player in 2019.
The Mets are built on pitch. In the end, the best DeGrom, Syndergaard, Wheeler, Matz, Edwin Diaz and Jeurys Familia the better the team will do in the standings. The essence of this post is to highlight three players able to tell the difference between, for example, 86 wins and 92 wins …
In the case of Ramos, although his bat is important, what he does behind the plate and between the ears of his throwing stick is going to be the real fruit of his work.
In the years since Paul Lo Duca was the everyday receiver of the team, the Mets went through more than 25 stops including Arnaud's Travis, Brian Schneider, Omir Santos, Rod Barajas, Josh Thole and John Buck and Kevin Plawecki.
This type of turmoil does not necessarily weaken pitching staff, but it undoubtedly adds an additional variable that must be considered in the game plan each night. Having a consistent daily presence behind the marble helps to reduce worries about what happens after the ball is released in the air.
That said, in addition to ensuring stability, Ramos brings Callaway's staff a guy with a bat, a reputation, an experience in handling young pitchers and a creative who has planned to play in the division against the same hitters who will be in the opposite dugout of the next six months.
Better yet, Ramos – who has spent 8 of his 12 seasons in the National League East – would have liked to join the Mets because of his knowledge of the division, the city and the promise of the potential of his pitching staff.
"I love working with this type of rotation because I feel I can help with my experience," Ramos said last summer after being sent by Tampa to Philadelphia. "Whenever I'm behind the board, I try to help my guys on the mound.I like when we put zeros on the dash.This is my priority. "
Ramos can hit, drive in sleeves and provide enough protection in the lineup to make Conforto a MVP caliber. But, if he can stay on the ground, create a bond with the pitching staff, put him at ease and prepare him better than usual, and their As a staff member, it would be well worth every penny and more.
Matthew Cerrone (Facebook | Twitter | Instagram | Contact) is the editor of MetsBlog.com, which he created in 2003. He also hosts the MetsBlog podcast, which you can subscribe here. His new book, The Bucket List of New York Mets fans details 44 things every Mets fan should experience in their lifetime. To check it, click here!
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