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Donald Trump may have left the White House, but his shadow still hangs in Washington and the Republican Party as the Senate prepares for his second impeachment trial.
The Senate’s 50 Republicans wonder how to appease Trump supporters, who still represent a significant part of the party’s base, while acknowledging that the former president instigated the Jan.6 attack on the U.S. Capitol.
Senators’ dilemma underscores how attached Republican lawmakers to Trump, even after his term ends, and it raises questions about where the party will go forward with much of its base. is still loyal to a president who oversaw the loss of both houses of Congress and the White House.
Trump’s continued power over Republican lawmakers was on full display last week, as 45 senators voted to preemptively dismiss the impeachment trial. Senators avoided defending Trump’s behavior on January 6, arguing instead that it was unconstitutional to impeach a former president.
“The indictment is for removal from office, and the accused here has already left office,” said Rand Paul, who led the prosecution to dismiss the trial. The Kentucky Republican added that the lawsuit “would drag our great country down the drain of grudge and vitriol.”
Assuming that the 45 Republican senators who supported the dismissal of the lawsuit also vote to acquit Trump, there is no chance the former president will be convicted of incitement to insurgency. It would take 17 Republican senators, plus every Democrat in the Senate, to condemn Trump.
Tara Setmayer, a conservative commentator who left the Republican Party in November, described senators ‘support for the dismissal of the lawsuit as the “most cowardly example” of Republican lawmakers’ reluctance to stand up to Trump.
“It’s really mind-boggling when you look at the number of opportunities the party has had to take the off ramp and move away from Trumpism,” Setmayer said. “The result has become that the Republican Party is now an anti-democratic, illiberal and pro-seditionist party.
The problem for Republican lawmakers who might want to part ways with Trump is that the former president remains extremely popular with the party base. According to an NBC News poll taken after the attack on Capitol Hill, 87% of Republicans still approve of Trump’s performance as president. Reports that Trump had considered launching a third party only heightened Republicans’ fears of being challenged by the right.
Trump’s popularity has left Republican lawmakers with three main options: stay in the good graces of the former president, step down, or risk getting caught by a Trump opponent. That dynamic unfolded last week, as a prominent Republican senator announced her retirement and a pro-impeachment lawmaker faced the threat of a main pro-Trump challenge.
Sen. Rob Portman, a Republican from Ohio, announced last Monday that he would not run for another term, sparking hopes among Democrats to overthrow his seat next year. In a statement explaining his decision, Portman said: “We live in an increasingly polarized country where members of both sides are being pushed further to the right and further to the left, which means that too few people actively seek to find common ground. . “
Three days after Portman’s announcement, Congressman Matt Gaetz from Florida held a rally in Wyoming to denounce Liz Cheney, one of 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump last month. Gaetz, one of Trump’s fiercest supporters in Congress, told a crowd of about 800 in Cheyenne: “We are in a battle for the soul of the Republican Party, and I intend to do so. to win.”
Trump followers like Gaetz rely on the idea that the president’s popularity with the Republican base can lead them to victory, but this philosophy has not been proven. Since Trump took office in 2017, Democrats have taken control of the House, Senate, and White House.
“Being negative and being against the liberals may be enough to win a few elections, but it’s not enough to form a ruling coalition. Ultimately, you have to be for something, as well as against something, ”said Henry Olsen, senior researcher at the Center for Ethics and Public Policy. “Right now, the conservative American electoral base is divided on what it is for, but united on what it is against.
The ideological divide between conservatives was evident in December, when Trump called for larger stimulus checks as part of a coronavirus relief program. Legislation passed by Congress included checks for $ 600 for most Americans, but the then president said the payments would have to be much larger, up to $ 2,000.
That number was immediately rejected by Republican Senate Leader Mitch McConnell, who declined to consider a House-passed bill that would approve larger checks. But polls show 72% of Trump voters agreed with the former president that checks for $ 600 were not enough.
“The Republican Party needs to understand where the people who are willing to vote for a Conservative Party are right now, and they’re actually on a whole host of issues closer to Trump’s situation than the pre-Trump party’s,” said Olsen.
These policy differences have raised the question of whether the Republican Party is on the verge of splitting up, with one faction sticking to Trumpism and the other focusing on traditional conservative values such as small government and deficit reduction.
“There is a healthy debate about, should we just let the Republican Party wither and die on the vine of Trumpism and create a new party? Because this path for the Republican Party is untenable, ”said Setmayer.
In that sense, the votes of Republican senators in the impeachment trial may provide some of the first clues as to how the party will navigate this ideological civil war. After all, if Trump is acquitted, he would be able to run another White House candidacy in 2024, giving Republicans the option of re-appointing the former president.
“There will be a lot to write about over the next four years on this topic,” Olsen said. “Impeachment will only be the beginning of this story, not anywhere near the end.”
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