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TAMPA, Florida – With Phillies training as deep and talented as it has been for a decade, fans can not get enough of the talk.
Who should start?
Is the two holes always reserved for the best hitter of the Phils, as Gabe Kapler explained in 2018?
How do the seven and eight places work?
Is the thrower going to beat ninth place?
On Wednesday afternoon, Kapler spoke at length about queues, both philosophically and practically with the 2019 Phillies.
Reading between the lines, it looks like we will not see so much the thrower beat eighth.
It seems that Jean Segura beats second, not Bryce Harper or Rhys Hoskins. This may seem obvious, but it is not the case, considering how modern alignments are built. Mike Trout beats second. Kris Bryant is second. Aaron Judge too. Christian Yelich was the two-hole hitter for the Brewers. A third of Paul Goldschmidt's plate entries came in second.
Segura is the most comfortable in both holes. He had 505 appearances at the plate last season.
Kapler takes:
Last year we had a range where we had to optimize each benefit. The optimization of the range was essential for us. We also know that the right guy in the right place gives you an advantage over a long season, but that's hardly a marginal benefit. Now, I'm weighing this marginal benefit that we get by publishing a strategically optimized composition every night and comparing that with what the clubhouse will feel with a given player at a certain place and what that player will feel. It's probably the thing I think most about.
It's hard for some baseball fans to understand, but that's generally how you see the league's composition built around the league. During a full season, the perfect composition can give a team 10 to 15 extra points, which in theory is worth about a win.
Could these same 10 to 15 races be replicated by hitting guys where they are most comfortable, even if statistically, this is not the most optimal range?
The other consideration is that the "perfect composition" is difficult to formulate with certainty. A coach can compose what he believes to be his best batting order, but it is easier to determine that perfect formation in hindsight than it should be to advance. This is all the more true as every year all players do not do the same thing as the year before. Odubel Herrera 2015-17 against 2018 is an example.
"Suppose you think Bryce Harper is the best full offensive performer in your lineup," said Kapler. "And suppose you think the best all-around hitter should hit fourth, maybe that's how you feel about it, but then you know that player feels more confident somewhere else." training when we are going to be a better offensive team.
"Maybe the (extra) races you mark during the season may not be worth it – everyone says it – and I hesitate to guide you in any particular direction – but let's go in principle everyone thinks best with Cesar Hernandez in first place or Andrew McCutchen in first place.This may be the best way to play.As if everyone would feel better with the # 1 One of those guys. "
The other factor is that you want your best players to compile as many appearances as possible. This is one of the reasons you see so many MVP candidates second. During the season, the batter may receive a significant number of appearances to the plate more than the third or fourth batter.
Still, Segura managed both holes. He makes a ton of contact. He has control of standout bat. He can hit behind the runners. He can make use of the gap between the first and second goal when the first goal is retained. These skills, as well as his comfort at this place, could make him a two-hole hitter more useful than Harper or Hoskins, even if this duo offers a more global attack.
"The online game, if it's one more match in this really important game, is important," Kapler said. "I think it's really critical if you have a big threat on the base at the top of the lineup because even if that spot comes up and that it does not hit a circuit or duplicate it go up to the base and keep the line moving, yes, then it's Harper or Hoskins who hits in this (next) position. "
The Phillies, with such an offensive talent, can afford to beat a traditional two-hole batter like Segura and a traditional slugger like Harper in third. McCutchen has a .356 OBP for the last three seasons. Segura is .353. The Phils have enough talent not to need the perfect formula every night.
"I'm going to go with my instinct," Kapler said. "I mean, I'm going to study the [bleep] on, but then I'll go with my instinct. "
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