[ad_1]
No one can guess how and when the trade war between the United States and China will end. But last week hostilities shot up dramatically as the two countries intensified their tariff measures, suggesting that their respective positions are getting tougher, even after two years of negotiations.
Some of these tariffs are expected to come into effect as of September 1, striking some of the largest US companies that will feel the direct impact of this conflict because of their significant presence in China. To better understand the risks faced by US companies, we focus on three large cap stocks to explain their interest in this dispute.
1. apple
The maker of the iPhone, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ 🙂 has a lot to lose in this fight between the two largest economies in the world. After China announced Friday its intention to collect duties on an additional $ 75 billion worth of US goods, Apple shares plunged 4.6%.
Weekly TTM AAPL
China is Apple's third largest market, with sales of nearly $ 52 billion. Concern over the impact of the trade war on Apple intensified in May, after the United States blacklisted Huawei Technologies, raising fears that China will attack Apple and its supply chain.
The majority of Apple's products are expected to be hit with 10% tariffs in the coming weeks or months. The levies on the iPhone, iPad and Apple laptops were postponed until December 15, but the price shock on the Apple Watch, AirPods and many accessories is still scheduled for September 1.
At a recent meeting, Apple CEO Tim Cook told President Trump that Apple's products would be at a disadvantage compared to its main rival Samsung (OTC 🙂 if Apple's products were subject to import tariffs. In a recent note from Goldman Sachs, the worst-case scenario would be that Apple's profits would be mined to 29% if China accused the United States of banning the sale of the iPhone manufacturer's products.
This scenario, in our view, is highly unlikely given Apple's significant investment in China and its impact on the local economy. But Apple stocks will certainly see more weaknesses if this dispute persists, threatening their recovery by 30% this year.
2. Nike
Giant sportswear, Nike Inc. (NYSE 🙂 is another mega cap consumer title vulnerable to a commercial conflict. Indeed, the company is already punished by the persistent dispute, which fears more and more that the increase in tariffs on its imports from China does not threaten its brand and reduce its sales.
NKE TTM weekly
After reaching a record $ 90 per share in April, Nike's share price has dropped by about 11% since the United States and China have imposed equal tariffs for reciprocal imports. Nike's action fell 3.4% on Friday to close at $ 80.44.
However, by digging deeper, it becomes clear that the risks for the largest sportswear company in the world are not so great. Nike has regularly diversified its production out of China – a strategy that makes it less exposed to tariffs on imports from China.
About 26% of Nike's shoes and clothing were made in China last year. However, according to Susquehanna Financial Group, less than 10% of this amount is imported into the United States.
During his tenure, Nike executives downplayed China's risks by claiming that the trade war had not yet had an impact on Nike, as the company continues to supply China. That said, Nike's stock will not be able to withstand a sell-off in China's exposed shares, and the weakness of its shares could accelerate if trade tensions continue.
3. Caterpillar
Shares of powerful manufacturers of mining and construction equipment, caterpillar Inc. (NYSE :), have also been under pressure, fearing that the company could escape the slowdown caused by the trade war. Its shares fell more than 3% Friday to $ 114.06, which represents a drop of 13% last month.
CAT weekly TTM
Caterpillar recently announced that tariffs on imports from China would increase its material costs by $ 200 million in the second half of 2019. The heavy machinery manufacturer plans to offset the bulk of rising costs by a rise in prices in the middle of the year.
But this strategy will probably not save the machinery giant from a general slowdown in the manufacturing industry that is hitting the United States and China. Caterpillar, considered an economic indicator, warned this year that the global economy is slowing faster than expected, which would slow down its sales.
In North America, the heavy equipment manufacturer said earnings for 2019 would be at a low point due to higher costs, lower sales in Asia and lower oil and gas spending in the prolific Permian Basin. China accounts for between 5% and 10% of Caterpillar's total revenue.
[ad_2]
Source link