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Twelve weeks after the start of the 2020 NFL season, the Tennessee Titans are still looking great. The obvious concern for Mike Vrabel’s side at the start of the year was whether the Titans, who went 9-7 and shockingly reached the AFC Championship game on last year, could replicate that success in a campaign modified by COVID-19. During the offseason, Titans general manager Jon Robinson zigzagged where many other NFL teams would have zagged, awarding big contracts to a running back and a 31-year-old quarterback who looked like a candidate for regression. Tennessee challenged anyone who thought the team’s playoff success was a fluke to keep their late-2019 momentum going steadily throughout the new season, and their recipe for success has prepared the franchise for another deep playoff series.
Before the start of the season, opinions about the Titans varied as much as Brittany Tomlinson’s famous reaction to trying kombucha for the first time. It was easy to defend them as AFC South champions… or a team that would miss the playoffs entirely. Their off-season strategy explains why. This summer, Tennessee doubled down on their offensive formula, re-signing fullback star Derrick Henry to a four-year, $ 50 million ($ 25.5 million guaranteed) contract and quarterback Ryan Tannehill to a 118 million contract. over four years (91 million guaranteed). The debate over the value of running back continues to rage, and some recent deals similar to Henry’s have aged like milk. Tannehill, meanwhile, took over from Marcus Mariota in Week 6 last season and proceeded to crush every career stats Tannehill had ever released. It was fair to wonder if the eighth-year passer would revert to his old mediocre level of play.
So far, the results speak for themselves: The Tennessee offense ranks third in Football Outsiders DVOA metrics. Tannehill ranks among the NFL’s top 10 passer in a handful of statistical categories, including adjusted net yards per attempt (7.95, fourth), QBR (76.7, fifth) and Pro Football Focus grade (83, 0, 10th). Henry’s 1,257 rushing yards lead the NFL. More importantly, the Titans are 8-3 and enter Week 13 in first place in the AFC South after a 45-26 rout from the division rival Colts. Momentum seems to be building around the same time as last season. When asked about last season’s success on Wednesday, Tannehill told reporters he felt it “gives you a bit of a blueprint” for how Tennessee can pull it off down the home stretch again.
“I’ve said many times, ‘What you did last year doesn’t matter this year,” Tannehill said. “But we have a group of guys who were on this team last year and kind of understand how we like to play and how we got better late in the season and carried our momentum week to week, and we were able to play well at the end of the season. It’s kind of the master plan, but we have to go out and do it every week here.
The Titans got off to a 5-0 start that included a 26-point win over the Bills. But Tennessee went 1-3 in their next four games with an 11-point loss to the Bengals, a 7-point win over the Bears and a 17-point loss to the Colts. The Titans have since rebounded with wins over the Ravens and Colts, which included a second-period resurgence to win in overtime against Baltimore and a first-half explosion to defeat Indianapolis. Cornerback Malcolm Butler pointed to the team chemistry in explaining why they are playing better.
“Just believe in each other,” Butler told reporters Tuesday. “Believe in each other, go out, keep playing hard and try to improve every week. … I just have to play for each other, communicate.
What’s even more impressive is that despite having a lucky 6-1 record in one-scoring games, the Titans haven’t been what you call “lucky.” The injury virus bit Tennessee. Starting cornerback Adoree ‘Jackson (knee), was placed on injury reserve ahead of the season and has not yet appeared since his activation on November 11; rookie second-round cornerback Kristian Fulton hit the IR after making two starts with a knee injury in late October; defensive back Dane Cruikshank, a base special teammate, only played two games before being placed in season-end IR on November 11; Starting punter Brett Kern landed on IR with a wrist injury in early November; starting linebacker Jayon Brown sidelined for the rest of the year with a broken elbow suffered in Week 11; left tackle Taylor Lewan tore his ACL on Oct. 18 and is out for the year; Lewan’s replacement Ty Sambrailo is set to miss the season with an undisclosed injury; slots catcher Adam Humphries has missed the last four games with a concussion; Jadeveon Clowney was placed on IR on November 21 with a meniscus injury.
Nonetheless, the Titans are set to crash again in the playoffs, despite a defensive unit that retreated after a slightly below-par performance in 2019. Last season, the Tennessee defense finished 18th in DVOA, including 11th in race defense. This year, the Titans have been much worse, placing 28th in defensive DVOA. Part of their struggles is in high school, which overcame several key absences and poor performance before rebounding recently. The departure of veteran cornerback Jonathan Joseph and the acquisition of former All-Pro defensive back Desmond King have already had a positive impact. But without elite side play and an unimpressive passing rush (Tennessee ranks 31st in pressure ratings, according to Pro Football Reference), it’s clear the Titans’ defense won’t wear them over the next few weeks. . Tennessee’s effective offensive is what continues to do this.
The Titans are getting their money’s worth thanks to Henry, who they’ve relied on all season and especially late in competitions. Henry is averaging 6.6 yards per carry in the fourth quarter of this year and 7.8 in overtime. At 6-3, 247 pounds, Henry is tough for defenders to manage, and his 938 rushing yards after contact (which leads the league) serves as a testament. Tannehill called Henry “seemingly unfazed” as a runner, crediting him with Tennessee’s offensive success.
“Derrick is extremely consistent,” Tannehill said. “It’s been the whole year, the last two years, really. As long as I’m here, he’s consistent. … I really want to roll it around as we head into December. “
Butler, who faces the former Heisman Trophy winner in training, said he was happy that Henry was on his squad and didn’t have to worry about fighting him during games.
“He can probably get past a lot of defensive backs in this league,” Butler said. “People really don’t know how fast this guy really is. It’s very exciting to see him people with stiff arms, hitting the hole, giving the team a boost and things like that.
According to Next Gen Stats, Henry faces less than eight boxes of defenders when leading the ball this year, down from 35.3% to 26.6%. This is likely due to the fact that opposing defenses have been forced to account for Tannehill, whose play has remained remarkably consistent, and his talented receiving body. The Titans’ passing game is among the most effective, ranking second in DVOA passes this season. Tannehill’s passing stats in his first 11 starts for the Titans last season are almost identical to his numbers this year. His mastery of game-action situations continues to be exceptional. Tannehill’s 1,195 passing yards and 9.9 passing yards per attempt (minimum 10 starts) both rank first this year, according to Pro Football Focus. The Titans maximized Tannehill’s strengths as a passer, and in turn, he saw his interception rate drop (from 2.1% to 1.2%) and his no. 1 option, AJ Brown, experience high-end success. Brown, a former sophomore second-round pick, scored in seven of nine games. Brown is ninth in yards after catch (315) and 15th in YAC per catch (7.9).
“As soon as the ball hits his hands, it hits another gear,” Tannehill said of Brown. “He’s speeding up, actually. He’s so big and strong that the guys don’t really want to attack him. It’s definitely a weapon for him, and he’s proven it time and time again.
The Titans are able to get the AFC’s no. Seeded 3, but their next challenge is the Browns, another 8-3 team that enjoys a similar offensive approach. Cleveland’s Nick Chubb (719) and Kareem Hunt (706) are both on track to cross the 1,000-yard mark this year and could become the first running back duo to do so since the 2009 Panthers Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams .
“They run real hard, man,” Butler said. “I think they’re the opposite of the Titans. They run the ball, the game-action, the boot, things like that. I just have to have your big boy pants this week. They run the ball a lot. I just have to go and get the victory.
If the Titans outlast the Browns on Sunday, they’ll match their regular-season winning streak from a year ago. Football Outsiders project Tennessee with a 94.4% chance of reaching the playoffs, proving Robinson’s decision to invest in both Tannehill and Henry as his offensive core as the right decision. Butler, who Tennessee signed on to a five-year, $ 61 million contract in 2018, was mentioned by reporters as one of the top vote-detectors for this season’s Pro Bowl on Wednesday. Butler admitted he was proud of the potential accomplishment, but would prefer to have other plans this weekend. “Hopefully we can’t go to a Pro Bowl or anything like that because the point is to make the Super Bowl,” Butler said. If the Titans can keep the momentum going, that might not be out of the question.
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