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I've had the same conversation over the past two weeks with acquaintances and friends from all walks of life. They include conservatives and Republicans, both skeptical and enthusiastic, as well as democrats and liberals whose feelings about the president range from hate to hatred. It all starts like this: "It will win in 2020, is not it?"
The tone of these conversations varies greatly, ranging from a satisfied calmness among those who fell in love with Trump to a helpless despair among those who had once believed that the universe itself would expel the president of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue and would make him lose our public life.
But the conclusion of these supporters is strikingly similar: Trump will not only survive his first term, but move on to a second one.
Now it is true that the Democrats and the Liberals have a desperate hope that Trump can still be chased out. Not long ago, the leak of a letter from special advocate Robert Mueller that four-page summary of Attorney General Bill Barr denounced the "context" of his report had resulted in a million tweets shouting again "impeachment!
Nevertheless, the fact that Mueller's investigation did not reveal any evidence of collusion with Russia represented an important turning point for Trump. He wiped out anti-Trump hopes that Mueller was extirpating the president.
The sad feeling among Trump's detractors that America could be stuck with him until 2024 is perhaps even more true for those who still think Trump is an agent of Putin. In their minds, if a thorough investigation by a special prosecutor could not prove it, it would only suggest that Trump is a much smarter and more flexible operator than Trump-hater ever wanted to believe.
In other words, my depressed anti-Trump knowledge resigns to what they see as a terrifying reality: if he can survive Mueller, he will surely survive any attack by Democrats in the House and slings from the plagues of candidates for the Democratic presidency and its future Democratic rival in 2020.
It's like the 1999 "Saturday Night Live" sketch, the day after the Clinton indictment was cleared: Clinton approaches a microphone, pauses, then says, "I. A m. Bulletproof. Trump's enemies fear that Trump has also been proven bulletproof.
But it's not just that. You can not defeat anything without anything, and my knowledge is that the Democratic group of 20 people is in the process of adding up. . . nothing.
Add-on:
1) The first disappointing performances of Liz Warren, Beto O'Rourke, Cory Booker, Amy Klobuchar, Kristen Gillibrand and Kamala Harris, at least as far as the polls are concerned.
2) The strangely invisible nominations of past and present governors John Hickenlooper and Jay Inslee.
3) ridiculous ridiculous nominations of representatives Seth Moulton, Eric Swalwell and Tulsi Gabbard.
4) The nominations of Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders, who shouted to the old man.
Faced with this embarrassment of non-wealth, is it any wonder that the only candidate to spark spontaneous enthusiasm is the intelligent and gracious 37-year-old mayor of South Bend, Indiana? Pete Buttigieg is definitely an interesting guy. But against Twitter's Colossus, would it not look less like a regicide and more like a gnat flying around an elephant?
There is also the fact that more than two years after the beginning of the Trump presidency, we have experienced sustained economic growth and extremely low unemployment. The desperation of the anti-Trumper is real – and based on reality.
And even . . . my Trumpian friends need to prepare too. Despite good economic news and the conclusion of Mueller's investigation, his approval ratings have reached very few points and are still at a level that – if unchanged – would drain his hopes of reelection. And because Trump occupies a great political place in our national discussion, his actions and words are amplified so as to cause him disproportionate harm.
I do not know if he will win in 2020 or not. But he could well. And for those who could not even imagine the possibility of winning the last time, the recognition of this reality is a moment of "red pill" in "The Matrix" – a willingness to see the world clearly for what it is. and not what they and their friends want it to be.
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