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Published on February 18, 2019 | by Jose Pontes
February 18, 2019 by Jose Pontes
As a follow-up to my article on the "Top 10 Best Brands of Rechargeable Vehicles in 2019", this one is aimed at the purists of electric vehicles. If you missed the intro of it, I recommend you read it. Otherwise, let's turn to the forecasts for the best brands of all-electric vehicles from 2019.
If you compare the lists, in this case, three brands (BMW, SAIC and Volkswagen) are replaced by three others, all of Chinese origin.
1. Tesla (450,000 to 500,000 units) – As I have already written, it is difficult to have a clear idea of the number of deliveries that the model 3 will record in 2019. It could exceed 400,000 units, or much less than that. This will depend on many factors (increased production, Chinese tariffs, Chinese Gigafactory, launch and availability of the Standard range).
No one, with the possible exception of "Doc" Brown, can honestly say that he knows what the number will be, but I'm going to make an educated guess of just over 350,000 deliveries . Add to that about 100,000 S & X model shipments, with the slight drop in sales in the first quarters of the year being offset by a strong fourth quarter of 2019 … once the production of the revised flagship products is in full swing.
2. BAIC (220,000-250,000) – By removing rechargeable hybrids (PHEV), Beijing Auto enjoys a 100% all-electric range (BEV) to surpass BYD, with a delivery target of 220,000 by 2019. Considering that BAIC has exceeded target of 2018 (150,000) and still has some 20,000 orders to fill, it should not be too difficult for the company to beat the new goal.
The question will be the combination of products. BAIC is expected to build on the EU Series sedan and the EX-Series crossover to provide the growth needed to achieve the desired goal.
3. BYD (200,000-230,000) – With over 60,000 customers still waiting for their electric BYD, Build Your Dreams can not really say that it has a demand problem. If production constraints / batteries allow, BYD is expected to exceed 200,000 deliveries.
The Yuan EV Crossover and the e5 sedan would be the future engines of growth, but if the mid-size SUV Tang PHEV version is in high demand, BYD might be tempted to prioritize the more profitable Tang … that delighted other models. Anyway, I think the Yuan EV, which will grow to nearly 60 kWh this year, will benefit from a battery upgrade, which will make it not only the bestseller BYD, but also probably the first of the brand to cross the milestone of 100,000 annual deliveries.
4. Nissan (150,000) -Because the Japanese manufacturer is highly dependent on the performance of the Leaf, it should experience a difficult first half of the year, its largest market (Europe) receiving only the version of 62 kWh in May and Tesla model 3 which comes arrived. Until then, Nissan should strongly reduce the 40 kWh of the Leaf by trying not to lose too much ground.
After the arrival of large volumes of 62 kWh Leaf, it will be a completely different game at the beginning of the second semester. The hatchback could reach some 15,000 sales per month and, with the help of Chinese operations (Sylphy EV), we should see Nissan recover ground against leaders.
5. Renault (120,000) – Like its Japanese ally, Renault is heavily dependent on one model, its Zoe hatchback, but there is less drama here. Demand for the current version is still growing, so expect continued growth throughout the first half, with the new Zoe reaching 10,000 units / month in the second half.
Add 15,000 deliveries of Kangoo EV and you should see the French manufacturer register at least 120,000 deliveries this year. It is also interesting to note that the Kwid EV will land this year in China, but it will probably not have time to deliver large volumes. In 2020, however …
6. Hyundai (100,000) – With more than 30,000 reservations on the waiting list, for Kona EV only, and an intelligent expansion strategy (offer the hybrid Ioniq in untapped markets, then, if the local demand is sufficient, plug-in ins), Hyundai scale Kia too) has significantly more plug-in demand than offer.
Hyundai's main concern is to have enough batteries to meet the ever-increasing demand. Assuming it has enough batteries, revenue is expected to increase significantly this year, which will allow the company to reach the top 10.
7. Chery (95,000) – The other Chinese manufacturers that will appear soon on this list could defeat Chery in 2019, but the company was targeting 200,000 sales of rechargeable vehicles in 2020, so it is serious about electric vehicles. Although its current sales champion, the city's eQ, could suffer from competition from younger and more attractive models.
8. JMC (90,000) – Jiangling Motors, Renault's new protégé in China, is a brand known for its small electric vehicles. However, for 2019, JMC ventures into two new segments. On the one hand, the new E500 will attempt to grab a piece of the best-selling compact crossover category.
On the other hand, the T500 EV will land on an almost untapped market, endowed with huge potential: Ford Ranger – as van market. With a battery of 58 kWh, the latter model could even be received warmly in a number of overseas markets, because there is nothing like it today or even in the future. close – the future Rivian R1T is more of a high-end lifestyle pickup and the future It is said that the Tesla pickup truck is a Blade runner complete pickup, limiting sales potential outside of North America.
9. JAC (85,000) – After a positive 2018 year, the Jianghuai automobile company is looking to increase sales this year by going up, launching the compact crossover iEVS4 and the average size iEV A60-ish sedan (in reality, the car is as big as a Model S).
But the big sales engine for JAC will be the fruit of the joint venture with Volkswagen, the Sol E20X – which is none other than its iEV7S crossover, but with Design inspired by SEAT. The Sol E20X will arrive at dealerships in the second half of the year. Expect this model to be manufactured in large numbers as Volkswagen will need all the electric vehicles it has to comply with the 2019 quotas.
10. Hawtai (80,000) – The 2018 surprise, after registering more than 50,000 units, also announces new models for 2019. With current model specifications being updated regularly, expect Hawtai to remain competitive and continue to grow, even if it will not be at the same pace some of its competitors.
Again, if you would like to see a list including plug-in hybrids, check out this article.
About the author
Jose Pontes Still interested in the automotive sector, especially electric cars, Jose monitors the evolution of plug-ins sales via the EV Sales blog since 2012, which allows him to get a clear idea of the situation. current and location of electric vehicles. headed to the future. The EV Sales blog has become a must-have source for people interested in selling electric cars around the world. Extending this work and his expertise, Jose is now a partner of EV-Volumes and collaborates with the European Observatory on Alternative Fuels on issues related to the sale of electric vehicles.
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