Tornado “triangle” late today from Grand Rapids to Traverse City in Saginaw

A concentrated area of ​​severe thunderstorms is possible over northern and central Lower Michigan. Official forecasts indicate that a few tornadoes and several significant wind gusts are possible.

Severe weather forecasters at the Storm Prediction Center placed almost all of Michigan at some level of severe weather risk today. The highest risk, called increased risk, covers an area within a line from the Grand Rapids area to the Traverse City area to the Saginaw area.

A more understandable way to use this prediction is to assign the risk of severe weather events a threat level 1 to 5. The increased risk area is a level 3 risk. The low risk area is a level 2 risk.

Before going too far into this extreme weather forecast, I want to point out that it has been difficult to pinpoint the initial storm locations over the past couple of days. Each of the past two days had an increased risk somewhere in Wisconsin. Each day the storms started just outside the increased risk area. Yesterday was a good example. The Storm Prediction Center had an increased risk area in Southeastern Wisconsin. I wrote that it looked like these storms were going to hit the southwest corner of Lower Michigan, and they did. What I’m saying is that this harsher time zone is probably okay, but could be out of 100 miles. If it’s spot on, I would move my concerns to southern Lower Michigan.

Storms are expected to start by mid-afternoon and become severe in the late afternoon and evening, then collapse around midnight. This has also been the pattern for the past two days.

The first storms are expected to be lonely, ahead of what could turn into a continuous squall line. These lonely storms are the storms that can produce a tornado or two. These tornadoes are said to be fortunate enough to last a bit longer than a typical Michigan tornado and could be a bit stronger.

The above tornado forecast gives Grand Rapids, Cadillac, Traverse City, Mount Pleasant, and the Saginaw / Bay City / Midland areas a five percent chance of a tornado.

As with most severe weather epidemics in Michigan, the main threat is straight line winds. The same area described for the highest tornado threat also has the highest straight line wind gust threat. We’ll see if the new update between 9am and 10am increases the chances of strong gusts of wind.

Large hail could also be produced during the first thunderstorms.

Here is the computer model that I think will do the best in this situation. This is a radar forecast starting at noon and ending at 1 a.m. tonight.

It’s a severe weather epidemic in the late afternoon and evening if that happens. The areas most likely to have the most severe thunderstorms are Cadillac, Big Rapids, Grand Rapids, Mount Pleasant, Lansing, Saginaw, Midland, and Bay City.

But I’ll be honest: there are plenty of updates to come. The truth is, we won’t know exactly where the most severe weather will be until we see the early parts of the violent storm line develop.

Check back here before 2 p.m. for an update closer to the start of the severe weather event.