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Now that the NFL draft is behind us, I'm immersed in one of my favorite off-season exercises: reviewing the total victories of each team and offering my first choices as to how the NFL season will end. We started work earlier this week with NFC East and now it's time to move on to the New England Patriots and the rest of AFC East.
Nothing ages better than the NFL predictions in May, is not it? It turns out I'm not terrible for that! The last seasons have been quite profitable: 2016, I spent 10-5-1 in the AFC and 8-7-1 at the NFC. In 2017, I went 12-2-2 (!) In the AFC and 9-7 in the NFC. Last year, the NFC was not ideal with a 7-8-1 record. The AFC was once again absurd, while I was 12-4 in my choices for the best / least of this conference.
For you, maths, my AFC record for the last three years in May is 34-11-3 when it comes to choosing the best. It's stupid. I would tell you to bet on every CAF choice I give here, but it is likely that a regression will occur at some point.
Last year, we chose these team choices, but this year we are going back to the division format that I've used in 2016 and 2017. If you hate the choices, like the choices or have best ideas, leave them in the comments or shout at me on Twitter @ WillBrinson. You can also get an audio breakdown of all these divisions on the Pick Six podcast, examining each division on our PODCAST DAILY NFL over the next few weeks.
Listen to the latest episode describing AFC East with Dan Lifshatz and Joey Murray of 98.5% on the Sports Hub of the player below:
All lines are courtesy of Westgate at the time of publication of the article. They are subject to change, but I will note myself next May on these figures. Figures next to total earnings indicate juice. If an over equals +150, it means you make $ 150 to bet $ 100. If it's -150, you have to bet $ 150 just to win $ 100.
Previous editions:
NFC East – Doubting Cowboys, Supporting the Giants
Patriots of New England
Total Victory: 11 (More than -140, Less than +120)
Time is a flat circle and the Patriots strike in their turn. To bet on the total of the New England Patriots' victories is a very unprofitable operation. The Patriots are a ridiculous 13-4-2 total of the season's victories since Bill Belichick's arrival in New England. It's more impressive when you consider that they regularly record between 10 and 12 wins before the season. Last year, we won 11 victories and, honestly, it may be the best thing to hope if you take the under: Tom Brady struggles while Josh Allen and Sam Darnold explode; Miami surprises; the offensive line of the Pats can not hold another season and the race does not start; Rob Gronkowski misses us a lot. There is a viable way to get there, but you take an unnecessary risk by going under.
Either bet or just pass. In fact, I love the end, considering the schedule. The only thing that makes me think about it here are the Patriots who could play for most of the season and are trying to rank among the top two seeds of the AFC before embarking on the playoffs.
VERDICT: More than 11 years
New York Jets
Total Victory: 7.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
I really liked it before the whole situation of Adam Gase with Mike Maccagnan appeared on the last pages. It's a useless drama for a team that had managed to stay out of the tabloids. That said, there is a lot to love here. The Jets have added The Vein Bell and Jamison Crowder, and Sam Darnold will use a system similar to that used by USC regarding the throws it will be asked to make. These two guys are perfect for what Gase wants to do in attack. The offensive line certainly worries me. If they can not protect Darnold, it will be a major problem. Quinnen Williams and C.J. Mosley are important additions to this defense, even if you do not like the price they paid for the linebacker.
In recent years, they have poured a lot of money into free agencies, especially on the defensive side. I do not like this style of team building, but I do not hate the pieces they put in place this year to make a race like a joker. They open with Bills (home), Browns (home) and Patriots (away), so going to 2-1 would be a big plus. But their end of season is easy, dude: from week 9, they have twice Dolphins, Giants, Redskins, Raiders, Bengals and Bills. None of these are immobilized victories, but they are all winnable games. I was a big fan of Todd Bowles, but I also think that Adam Gase makes the most of a list. If this team manages to emerge from the big dramas over the next nine months, it's a joker suitor.
VERDICT: More than 7.5
Buffalo Bills
Victory Total: 7 (Over -125, Less than +105)
Are Bills so fashionable now? In the podcast above with Dan Lifshatz and Joey Murray of 98.5 Sports Hub, I expressed my adoration for the Bills off season and both guys agreed that Buffalo was a bit in vogue. Vegas also agrees: this line was 6.5, heavily focused on the top (-160 to -180, depending on where you looked). The Westgate went from the front and brought it to 7 (-125). It's a big bump in May.
But it's not unreasonable: the Bills had a very good season under the radar. They build the foundation around Josh Allen in his sophomore year by adding quality players to the receivers and offensive line. Tyler Kroft, a nice addition to the tight final, is already injured, so it's not a good start. But the Zay Jones combo, Robert Foster, Cole Beasley and John Brown intrigue me. These are not sexy names or anything, but they complement each other well and should play with Allen's greatest strength (his deep ball) while improving his greater weakness (accuracy). The signature of Mitch Morse, Quinton Spain and Ty Nsekhe when Cody Ford was written represents a massive upgrade of a very bad offensive line. Devin Singletary can learn from Geriatrics Frank Gore and LeSean McCoy. On the defensive, they can just be good: Buffalo was the # 2 team defending Football Outsiders last season, and adding Ed Oliver will only help. Sean McDermott is a much better coach than his public perception implies. I think he'll manage to get an unexpected win or two from this team – they have now outperformed their total wins at Pythagoras during each of his two years as a coach.
My biggest concern with both Bills and Jets is that many teams in the division need more than .500. But it's happened six times since the realignment (basically since the beginning of the Brady / Belichick era) and so it's no exaggeration to let the Patriots dominate and win the division while getting a pair of .500 lower than them. We do not need Bills to win 12 games. We just need them to win eight.
VERDICT: More than 7 years
Miami dolphins
Total Victory: 5 (More than +110, Less than -130)
This is not an "easy" game because a) there is no easy game, and b) the NFL teams are lucky on five record wins. The dolphins have done beautiful things this season. Defensively, I do not think that they are anything but difficult. Christian Wilkins was an excellent first-round pick. Maybe Brian Flores can get something from Charles Harris, his first-round pick in 2017. Minkah Fitzpatrick and Xavien Howard are great building blocks in the back. I could see that it's an above-average defense that keeps the Dolphins in the games, that's why I would not want to take the pennies with my own money.
Offensively, there are some concerns. Chad O 'Shea is a first-year OC and he will have to cook early without a big offensive line. Who is the quarterback? I do not buy Ryan Fitzpatrick who creates Fitzmagic with this composition as he did in Tampa Bay. I want Josh Rosen's stock, but I do not think it's safe to have a monster year or anything. Kenny Stills, DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki have strengths, but this is not a skill group that will play a leading role. Kenyan Drake and Kalen Ballage both have fantastic potential, but none of these are really in my mind. The program is brutal – three of their home games take place the first month (in Miami, which means that time could throw uncertainty on the equation as to the location of the match), and they entail the Ravens, the Patriots and Chargers with a trip to Dallas to play the Cowboys before their week bye 5. Anything other than 0-4 would be a win. Another team for which I would not run the risk of playing personally, but I like the underside.
VERDICT: Less than 5 years
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