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The Mets are debating whether to invest in another big item this offseason or add more players to deepen the quality of the overall roster.
The important piece cannot be free agent receiver JT Realmuto unless they plan to turn James McCann into a $ 40 million save. The Mets have not been linked with any recent trade talks for Nolan Arenado or Kris Bryant.
That leaves Trevor Bauer.
Or it is not. Steve Cohen made his billions as a risk assessment expert. The decision could be, for example, that the Mets could get as many wins by adding, for example, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Brad Hand while taking on much less financial commitment than Bauer on his own.
Or does Cohen see this: Jacob deGrom, Bauer, Carlos Carrasco, Marcus Stroman and David Peterson with Noah Syndergaard behind the scenes? The Nationals won the World Series in 2019 on a rotation that looked like this, and arguably less offensive and bullpen than the Mets currently have.
However, almost any Bauer deal would push the Mets above the $ 210 million luxury tax threshold, and Cohen has indicated he wants to stay below that number in 2021. Plus, because Bauer has received and rejected the Reds’ qualifying offer, the Les Mets would lose their second pick in the June draft and $ 500,000 in international slots cash if they signed it. And the Mets are committed to trying to rebuild their farming system.
This leads to signs that the Mets are happy to have added the central player they dreamed of to Francisco Lindor. No one would be surprised if one day, during the spring training, there was an alert for a press conference to announce Lindor’s new $ 300 million extension and that is substantial financial outlay this year. Between Lindor, Carrasco, McCann, Trevor May, the retention of Stroman and a few more useful plays or two, the Mets can claim a strong first offseason under Cohen, despite the disturbing revelations that led to the dismissal of new GM Jared Porter. .
Still, Bauer titillates. It doesn’t escape my mind that when Sandy Alderson was hired as team president he mentioned that he didn’t mind sizzling when asked about the daring Bauer. Alderson, after all, was the guy who oversaw the Bash Brothers of Jose Canseco, Mark McGwire, Rickey Henderson and Dennis Eckersley three decades ago. Bauer has a huge social media presence. Sometimes this has sparked controversy. You can expect more, as Bauer is determined to build his brand. But in doing so, the marginal benefit is that it also helps increase interest in baseball and potentially lead fans not aligned with a team to a new organization.
But at what cost will a team see if all of this is true? At what risk?
The main players in the market, despite COVID-19, have so far been treated well. That may not be true with Bauer. Due to a lack of lasting excellence or personality issues.
However, until Bauer gets the big paycheck – more than Max Scherzer’s seven-year-old at $ 210 million, perhaps north of Stephen Strasburg’s seven-year-old at $ 245 million – I’ll believe it stays at both a goal of his camp and a possibility. A few years ago, Bryce Harper had to make a short engagement but a record annual Dodgers worth or less per year, but a lot more money from the Phillies. Like most gamers, Harper took the biggest guarantee – $ 330 million over 13 years.
Bauer may very well be faced with the same puzzle, in part because the Dodgers are at least hidden over him. And Bauer is rare (maybe unique). He has such a belief in his training methods that he has spoken of a desire to go short or even year after year and just come back to the market. Japanese ace Tomoyuki Sugano recently signed again with the Yomiuri Giants for four years, but with a disengagement after each season to preserve his right to try to join MLB earlier. Bauer could ask for something similar – a shorter term for less overall money, but with a chance to come out and chase the longer money each year if he wishes.
But I guess taking less money overall is a no-starter unless the average value breaks Gerrit Cole’s current record of $ 36 million per year. Would a team go, say, four years to $ 160 million for the NL winner Cy Young 2020?
The Dodgers? The Blue Jays? I continue to wonder about the Twins. They’ve been chasing high-end starters in recent years, like Yu Darvish and Zack Wheeler, without securing them. Their head of baseball operations, Derek Falvey, had Bauer in Cleveland and knows all of the techniques that Bauer adopted that brought animosity to the start of his Indian tenure have become common in the game now, and that Bauer had. voluntary help and a positive impact on beginners such. like Shane Bieber and Mike Clevinger.
If relationships matter (and they normally do), the twins general manager Thad Levine and one of Bauer’s agents, Jon Fetterolf, were co-captains of the 1993 Haverford College baseball team – although the 1992 team captain Josh Byrnes, even closer to Fetterolf. Yes, always watch the Dodgers.
But should we watch the Mets? Cohen obviously has the money. Does he want the risk?
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