Tropical disturbances as they approach the Caribbean islands are expected to continue towards Florida

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We are currently tracking two disturbances across the tropical Atlantic, but Tropical Disturbance # 1, closest to the Caribbean islands, is very likely to turn into at least one tropical depression and is heading towards Florida.

Computer forecast models are in unusually good agreement on the system’s trajectory this week – over or near the large Caribbean islands and towards the Bahamas and Florida. The open question is whether the disturbance will organize itself and what force it could become.

The consensus is that Tropical Disturbance # 1 will arrive in the southern Florida area around Friday or Saturday at least as a heavy moisture surge with a few gusty showers.

It would appear that the disruption has a difficult path ahead of it. While the high altitude winds seem reasonably favorable for development, the system plunges directly into a batch of Saharan air. Some of the dry air seems likely to wind up in the traffic, which would limit thunderstorms that could form around the center, requiring significant reinforcement.

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Additionally, the consensus trail of the latest computer forecasting models brings the system over or near the mountains of Puerto Rico from Tuesday to Wednesday. Heavy rains and gusts of wind are expected there. From Wednesday to Thursday, the system is expected to interact with the high mountains of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. Again, very heavy rains and flooding are possible.

If the disturbance ends up spreading over or near these mountainous islands, it decreases the chances that a well-organized traffic will emerge in the Bahamas or around Florida or Cuba at the end of the week.

Additionally, when the system approaches Florida, an altitude disturbance will kick in, which could limit potential development, depending on how the two systems interact.

Nothing in the forecast is certain, of course. All predictions for systems not developed or under development are subject to large errors. We will have to see how things evolve in the coming days. If organized circulation emerges, computer forecasting models would likely become more reliable.

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The National Hurricane Center is alerting residents of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands that tropical storm watches or warnings may be required at any time if Tropical Disturbance # 1 suddenly sets in and appears as if it could become a Tropical Storm Fred before reaching these islands.

Note that the red area on the NHC map looks like a typical forecast cone, but it is not. This is the area in which a tropical depression or tropical storm would likely form over the next 5 days, if it does. The length of the zone takes into account the uncertainty given the negative factors involved. But a zone of favorable atmosphere and open water would suffice to allow the circulation to consolidate and organize itself into a low-end tropical depression or storm.

There is no indication at this time that this system will become a strong storm, but given the uncertainties surrounding systems under development, we need to monitor carefully until we are sure.

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Disturbance # 2 appears to be very weak. The National Hurricane Center still only gives it a slim chance of becoming at least a tropical depression. Predictive computer models generally show that it is moving westward and collapsing or being dragged into the circulation of Tropical Disturbance # 1.

Long-term computer prediction models show that another system will soon leave Africa for the Atlantic. It looks like the hurricane season is resuming as planned.

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