Tropical Storm Eta is forming, tying the record for most named storms in a season at 28

Tropical Storm Eta formed in the central Caribbean on Saturday, becoming the 28th named storm of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. This season has now equaled the record for the number of most named storms in a season, set previously in 2005.

While the number of storms in 2005 was also 28, this is the first time that the name Eta will ever be used. In 2005, there were only 27 named storms, with an unnamed subtropical storm added to the tally during a post-season reanalysis by the National Hurricane Center.

2020 has been a remarkable hurricane season in many ways. This season also holds the record for most tropical systems making landfall in the United States, at 11, and tying the record for most hurricanes that made landfall at six.

Unfortunately, the overactive season shows no signs of stopping, at least until mid-November, as the large-scale pattern across the Atlantic Basin indicates at least two more weeks of favorable conditions for tropical systems to form. .

At 4 p.m. ET on Sunday, Eta was about 285 miles east of the Nicaraguan-Honduran border, moving west at 15 mph. The system has maximum sustained winds of 65 mph and is expected to build up to a hurricane by Monday.

As Eta approaches the Nicaraguan-Honduran border on Monday and Tuesday, the leadership patterns will crumble and the system will slow significantly. While a landing seems likely on Tuesday just south of the border, what will happen next is still unclear.

With a weak and uncertain direction, the storm will likely meander near the Central American coast for a few days, pouring torrential rains over the region. However, some computer models show that it could eventually return northeast to the Caribbean again. If that happens, there is a chance the system will be swept north in the longer term – next weekend in the following week.

While the odds are still pretty slim for now, it is not out of the question that the United States should prepare for yet another landing from the tropical system. Although rare, tropical systems can impact the United States in November. This occurs primarily in Florida, as cold fall fronts direct western Caribbean storms northeasterly.

In total, Florida was hit by eight tropical systems in November, two of which were hurricanes. In 1985 Hurricane Kate struck the Florida Panhandle in Category 2, and in 1935 Hurricane Yankee struck Miami.

The extra-warm ocean temperatures of 2020 make it all the more likely that tropical systems can continue to form even after the hurricane season officially ends on November 30. Since the 1700s there have been 27 tropical systems that we know formed during the month. of December.

Currently, almost the entire Atlantic basin has above normal sea surface temperatures.

Above normal ocean temperatures have been part of a long-term trend of warming waters since the early 1900s. In the tropical Atlantic, sea surface temperatures have risen by 2 degrees Fahrenheit since then as a result. of human-caused climate change.

This is important because tropical systems, which require ocean temperatures of 80 degrees or higher to form, encounter this threshold more often, in more geographic areas, and for a longer part of the year. This means that there is now a greater chance of active seasons with tropical systems forming outside traditional geographic boundaries and outside the traditional seasonal calendar.