Tropical storm Julian forms in the Atlantic

Another landing, on the east coast of mainland Mexico, left at least eight people dead.

And Henri formed on August 16 as a tropical storm off the east coast of the United States. It strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane, but was downgraded before making landfall in Rhode Island, sparing the region the worst of what had been expected. It hit the northeast with high winds and torrential rains, cutting power to more than 140,000 homes from New Jersey to Maine.

Ana became the first named storm of the season on May 23, making it the seventh consecutive year that a named storm has developed in the Atlantic before the official start of the season on June 1.

The links between hurricanes and climate change are becoming increasingly evident. A warming planet might expect to have stronger hurricanes over time and a higher incidence of the more powerful storms – although the total number of storms may drop, as factors like stronger wind shear could prevent the formation of weaker storms.

Hurricanes also get wetter due to more water vapor in the warmer atmosphere; scientists have suggested that storms like Hurricane Harvey in 2017 produced much more rain than they would have had without the human effects on the climate. In addition, rising sea levels contribute to increased storm surges, the most destructive element of tropical cyclones.

In May, scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted there would be 13 to 20 named storms this year, of which six to 10 would be hurricanes and three to five major Category 3 or more hurricanes in the Atlantic. In early August, in a mid-season forecast update, they continued to warn that this year’s hurricane season would be above average, suggesting a busy end to the season.

Matthew Rosencrans, of NOAA, said an updated forecast suggested there would be 15 to 21 named storms, including seven to 10 hurricanes, by the end of the season on November 30. Julian is the 10th named storm of 2021.

Last year there were 30 named storms, including six major hurricanes, forcing meteorologists to exhaust the alphabet for the second time and use the Greek letters.