Tropical Storm Nicholas: Risk of flash flooding increases for coasts of Texas and Louisiana as Tropical Storm Nicholas targets

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After slowing down to almost a stop in the Gulf of Mexico, the storm could strengthen considerably. Hurricane watch is in effect from Port Aransas to Freeport, Texas, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) said.

A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions – sustained winds of at least 74 mph – are possible within 48 hours of the previous day’s broadcast.

Nicholas’ flash flood risk is increasing, with a Level 3 in 4 risk of excessive precipitation being issued for coastal sections of Texas from Monday through Tuesday night at least, according to the Weather Prediction Center.

“This brings the 48 hour total for some areas to 9 to 12 inches, which could lead to significant flooding issues, especially for urban areas like the Houston subway,” the Weather Prediction Center said.

While it’s still unclear where the heaviest rains will fall, there will be places that will receive a storm total of at least 15 inches by the end of this week.

The storm is about 70 miles southeast of the mouth of the Rio Grande, with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph, the NHC announced Monday morning.

Torrential rains are forecast for the Texas coast, and there is a considerable flood threat through Wednesday in areas of Corpus Christi, Texas, across Metro Houston and parts of western parts of the Louisiana, including Lake Charles.

Much of southeastern Louisiana is still recovering from the devastation caused by Hurricane Ida just over two weeks ago.

Nicholas, the 14th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, formed in the Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. A 14th named storm in the Atlantic Basin, the total number of storms in an average season, usually does not form until November 18.

Threat of torrential downpours and up to 5 feet of storm surge

The center of the storm is expected to pass through or move near South Texas on Monday and Tuesday for the upper parts of the coast.

Highlights of the Atlantic hurricane season 2021

Heavy rains will be the main threat, with a widespread 5-10 inch distribution expected for southwest Louisiana. On the middle and upper coasts of Texas, the storm is expected to produce 8 to 16 inches, the NHC said.

“This storm has the potential for widespread flash flooding. Houston can easily have problems with 4 to 5 inches of rain,” CNN meteorologist Tom Sater said. “More than that will create bigger problems.”

Storm surges will also be a risk, with forecasts of 2 to 4 feet in parts of Texas and Louisiana.

The stretch of the Texas Gulf Coast from Port O’Connor to the San Luis Pass could see a wave of up to five feet and a storm surge warning is in place.

CNN’s Michael Guy contributed to this report.

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