Trucker reveals his thoughts on autonomous trucks, paid driver

Dan McCreary, a truck driverCourtesy of Dan McCreary

• Daniel McCreary is a 47-year-old truck driver who lives in Centerville, Maryland.
• He has worked in the trucking industry for decades and currently transports chicken feeds for short distances throughout his working day – from 6 pm to 6 pm. at 6 o'clock

• The automation and sinking of truckers' salaries are threatening the millions of American truckers.

• Business Insider asked McCreary what he thought about the current state of trucking and livelihood prospects in the coming decades.
• Visit the Business Insider home page for more stories.

Rachel Premack: So first of all, what do you think of autonomous trucks and what impact do you think they will have on your career, if any?

Dan McCreary: I am 47 years old. I think – I do not know. My career probably will not see much effect. Some people drive up to the age of 70. We will see something at the end of this, but it is difficult to drive on the road and then the traffic is difficult, but I think that's the easy part.

For example, I deliver chicken food and it's a custom mill. We have to load it. It takes 10 minutes to charge, 15 minutes to go where we are going, making it a 15 minute delivery time to come back and do it eight or nine times a quarter.

I think it's going to be very difficult to automate. I do not know. I think it's a bit like a snowball. When they detect a problem and solve it, they can solve the next two more easily.

Read more: Andrew Yang promises to save the truck drivers from their disappearance – but truckers can not even agree he's right for their future

I know we must be ready for change and understand that it can happen a day when all of a sudden it affects you unexpectedly. And I think it will be like that. I think a lot of people will work, work, work, work. And suddenly, either a regulatory obstacle will disappear or a technological obstacle will be crossed.

A truck driver admits that autonomous trucks have an advantage over the human driver – but a person will still be needed in many cases

RP: Obviously, autonomous trucks lead to safety issues, and the labor consequences would be difficult for truckers. But what are the positives of autonomous trucks?

McCreary: The easy thing for autonomous vehicles, if anything can be considered easy, is that once a company's program learned, all vehicles know it, unlike trucking, every new driver must be trained from zero. So you bring a new truck online and the program is downloaded exactly as our computer engine management program is already loaded.

I think we could do a lot of that kind of thing safely. Tesla said that their cars were already safer than human drivers and I do not think this is a terribly outrageous statement. Just because people probably put it on the autopilot when it's easy part, but get on the ramp and go for miles to the next city, and then remove it from the autopilot when you go down. Dan McCreary, truck driverCourtesy of Dan McCreary

Do you know trucking in New York? They make triples up there.

RP: No, I'm not as aware of that … I made a few trips to New York for last mile deliveries, but not with a trucking company as such. I did a ride with UPS and Coca Cola. I imagine that other companies do it a little differently.

McCreary: The last mile you've done is probably the most difficult complex to automate, but if you're heading to New York, you'll notice that when you get there, many trailers are parked. on the side. There is always a lot and there are a lot of trailers. Well, in New York, they allow you to drive three trailers hitched on the New York system.

So, they bring trailers to a drop lot. Then the drivers come to connect.

You get a lot of individual drivers who bring trailers and drop them off, then a guy comes in and he walks the long kilometers, drops him on the parking lot, on the other side, then the other guys come in and, again , do the last kilometer.

Truck pampering is a way for driverless trucks to take control of highways. Platoon flights (as illustrated with these three Volvo tractors, pulling six trailers in total) help reduce braking response time and allow vehicles to track more closely, automatically adjusting to speed and speed. braking. Volvo has tested this technology in collaboration with FedEx.Justin Kase Conder / AP Images for Volvo Trucks

RP: So, is the peloton where you see the autonomous trucks starting?

McCreary: I could see something like that working early and pretty quickly because it's the least complex. You have fewer interactions with the traffic, everything is going in your direction and usually at the rate at which you are going.

But there is so much complexity. You have a problem, you have to check your equipment, you have to remove the hood. There are a lot of things that can be automated, check the oil, but in fact walk, check the thickness of the brakes, etc., this will add a lot of cost and I do not think that would be where the big initial return would return would be. I think they'll still need truckers for these things.

There is a lot of unknown. We had planes that could literally – a pilot could take them to the end of the runway and let the autopilot play the take-off role until the full flight until landing. and until he leaves the track. We have had one since I joined the army in 1991 when I became a member. It was in its infancy. It was an early GPS and that sort of thing, but they still have a driver out there because the most complex situations that occur most rarely require one for the moment.

"I think it's possible that some jobs will be moved quickly"

RP: So, when do you think automation will hit trucking?

McCreary: This thing comes in big pieces. The snowball rolls and rolls and rolls and rolls and all of a sudden it is huge and we move from horse and buggy to cars in the space of 10 years or 15 years. There is a precedent as to how it will work to the extent that some technologies have really upset the industry over the years.

Look at the industrial revolution. Look at the passage to cars in the early 1900s. The aerospace industry, which was not able to fly in the next 15 or 20 years, could not fly commercially.

And those most affected by it simply had to embark on a new career. Nobody made horse whips or buggy wheels. I do not know.

Dan McCreary and his familyCourtesy of Dan McCreary

McCreary: Every month we hear a new thing. We have our autonomous vehicle that has traveled 100 miles and he did this or did that. I think we have crossed an initial barrier.

Read more: Autonomous trucks now carry UPS loads – and this shows that unmanned trucks could disrupt the trucking industry, worth $ 800 billion.

I think that there are still a lot of problems to be solved before seeing a truck that can take off from the Walmart distribution center, roam the streets of the city, borrow the highway, go wherever it pleases and land at next distribution center. But, I think that there will still be a lot of jobs in driving trucks for a long time. I think it's possible that some jobs will be moved quickly.

It's such a complex thing. The environment is so complex. If we started a new system with vehicles that could communicate with each other and that each vehicle on the road could communicate with each other, you would have a much simpler configuration because you could speed up and reduce speed so as to avoid any decline in traffic. or you can actually cross intersections without stopping at traffic lights and that sort of thing.

But we are transforming this kind of thing into a system with millions and millions of cars and trucks in all states of repair and service.

A daily scene from Dan McCreary's work.Courtesy of Dan McCreary

Autonomous trucks have been proposed as a solution to the shortage of truckers – but not all truckers agree that there is even a shortage

RP: We have heard a lot about the shortage of truckers. The American Trucking Association estimates that there is a shortage of 160,000 truck drivers by 2028, if current trends continue. So, would not autonomous trucks be good if there is a shortage?

McCreary: It seems that they are more willing to spend money on equipment than on men. This could therefore mitigate some of the perceived tightening.

I'm a little excited for the technology. I'm a little excited to see what happens. I think things will change. It will be interesting to see. The salary of the drivers has really fallen behind. Many trucking companies fear a shortage of truckers.

Read more: The federal government has just confirmed what the 1.8 million American truckers say for years: the shortage of truckers does not really exist

If you look back in the 1980s, the wages of today's dollar drivers would be well over 100,000, and that's just not a common figure. There is already a shortage of drivers, which may be self-inflicted. If you look at companies like UPS or some of the distributors of Coca-Cola, some of them are paying very well. If you look at those who pay really well, they really have no trouble getting or keeping their drivers.

Dan McCreary and his daughter drive a boat.Courtesy of Dan McCreary

Read more: Walmart truck drivers are among the best-treated in the industry – and get a pay raise next month.

I do not think I'm afraid of it. I just think that if you do not recognize the reality of change and where you are changing, you risk being one of the left behind.

The trucking industry did not, unless you were a union driver, wanted to place you in a very good place for retirement.

And then I had a child who was operated on the back and we lost another one.

I have spent my entire retirement and so I could work up to 70 or 75 years, which could well affect me immensely. It's something that I have to read. I have to stay at the top and you have to be ready for that or you sink into the sand, I guess that's what I say.

On July 22, 2019, trucks carrying containers are waiting to be unloaded at Oakland Harbor in Oakland, California. On Wednesday, September 4, the US Federal Reserve releases its latest economic outlook survey entitled "Beige Book." (AP Photo / Ben Margot)Associated press

It's fascinating for me. Maybe I should be scared. We've been transporting since … My mother, my wife and my grandmother tell me, "If you're so smart, you could be businessmen, you could do it, you could do it. . "

And there is some truth to that. We may have to do something else at some point because some of our jobs are being replaced. I do not know. I know a lot of things. I guess what I do not know is how much I do not know what they accomplished. And we steal drones now in combat. There are many things that we have really automated.

This is a reality that you can not ignore, and it may well be that the Elon Muslems of the world are very optimistic and that they make some very fast advances, but I think it's like the musician who practices 30 years and all. Suddenly, they say to themselves, "Oh, it's a success overnight." He was coming from nowhere. "